1959 UK General Election What If

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Let's suppose in 1956, British Prime Minister Anthony Eden decides not to intervene in the Suez Canal Crisis. Thus, Eden dosen't resign in January 1957 and isn't replaced by Harold Macmillan.

How would have Prime Minister Eden and the Tory Government have faired in the 1959 General Election? Would Eden do what Mcmillian did in RL by campaigning on "Life is better with the Conservatives, don't let Labour ruin it"? Or would the Labour Party led by Hugh Gaitskell be able to pull off victory?

Discuss.

[Harry Hayfield]

General Election 1955 Result
Conservatives 12,811,516 (49.22%) winning 345 seats
Labour 12,354,094 (47.46%) winning 276 seats
Liberals 719,707 (2.06%) winning 6 seats
Plaid Cymru 41,416 (0.16%) winning 0 seats
Scottish National Party 12,112 (0.05%) winning 0 seats
Independents 60,299 (0.23%) winning 0 seats
Others 31,257 (0.12%) winning 2 seats
Conservative lead of 1.62%
Conservative majority of 60
Conservative lead over Labour of 68

Top 68 Labour Targets
1   Bradford North
2   Plymouth Devonport
3   Ayrshire Central
4   Ealing North
5   Glasgow Craigton
6   Bolton East
7   Oldham East
8   Carlisle
9   Preston South
10   Kingston upon Hull North
11   Glasgow Scotstoun
12   Maldon
13   The Wrekin
14   Eastleigh
15   York
16   Nottingham Central
17   Hitchin
18   Eye
19   Battersea South
20   Hornchurch
21   Wandsworth Central
22   Yarmouth
23   Lanark
24   Buckingham
25   Halifax
26   Rochdale
27   Walthamstow East
28   King's Lynn
29   Billericay
30   Doncaster
31   Dulwich
32   Rushcliffe
33   Sunderland South
34   Watford
35   Woolwich West
36   Norfolk South
37   Gloucestershire South
38   Liverpool Kirkdale
39   Norwich South
40   Grantham
41   Chigwell
42   Darlington
43   Walsall South
44   Devizes
45   Bolton West
46   Manchester Wythenshawe
47   Rutherglen
48   Dover
49   Bedfordshire, Mid
50   Brentford and Chiswick
51   Gravesend
52   Epping
53   Liverpool Walton
54   Burton
55   Liverpool West Derby
56   Peterborough
57   Heywood and Royton
58   Berwick and East Lothian
59   Carmarthen
60   Plymouth Sutton
61   Preston North
62   Bury and Radcliffe
63   Southampton Test
64   Bradford West
65   Chislehurst
66   Westbury
67   Lewisham North
68   Somerset North

Looking at that result from 1955 and the seats that Labour needed to gain to overturn the Conservative lead, I think it would still have been a Conservative win

[minionofmidas]

8   Carlisle
10   Kingston upon Hull North
15   York
16   Nottingham Central

Things have changed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eden not getting involved in the Suez mess is hard to believe; by this point was pretty much mad anyway (or at least acted like it).

[minionofmidas]

Eden not getting involved in the Suez mess is hard to believe; by this point was pretty much mad anyway (or at least acted like it).

"Half mad baronet, half beautiful woman".

[afleitch]

Eden would have been slaughtered for not going into Suez. He was an ineffective PM because he waited too long for the job that he had long been pretty much guaranteed (sounds familiar) and presented a pre-war foreign policy ethic and response to a post-war problem. What was worse is that this was supposed to be his strong point. But again having said that, it would have been difficult to stay out of Suez. If he did, and he survived he could have trundled on to 1959 and won a victory; the economy was moving in his favour anyway (as most western economies did regardless of their governments)   

There would be no Macmillan, but neither would there be a Douglas-Home. I can see Eden quietly stepping down in 1961 or 1962. Butler or Hogg would be best placed, again to lead the party and if they did, 1964 could have been very different indeed.

[minionofmidas]

Having read the Wiki, I recognize that he was not crazy at all but a drug addict.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting what-if's from that general period would be the 1959 election if Morrison hadn't blown his chances of becoming leader earlier in the decade, or the 1964 election if Brown had beaten Wilson to the Labour leadership/if Gaitskell hadn't died.

[afleitch]

Some interesting what-if's from that general period would be the 1959 election if Morrison hadn't blown his chances of becoming leader earlier in the decade, or the 1964 election if Brown had beaten Wilson to the Labour leadership/if Gaitskell hadn't died.

Britain was coming to the end of the post-war welfare state consensus. Certainly, the deliberate movement within the Conservatives against 'Butskellism' which killed of 'Rab' Butler and tainted ,somewhat unfairly, Hogg by loose association (as it would do with Whitelaw a decade later) coupled with the death of Gaitskell and philosophical snub to Crosland in the Labour Party pretty much kickstarted the divergence and the drift to the respective left and right.

It didn't have to happen and it would have been interesting if it had not occured. Labour may have been out of office until the late 60's / early 70's but there would be no SDP a decade later. There would have been no Thatcherism. There would have been a Thatcher but very much the 'new woman' liberal (by comparison to her party), soft toned Thatcher of the pre Keith Joseph Experiment days who may yet have become leader.