Rep. Jim Saxton to retire

[MarkWarner08]

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http://politickernj.com/defense-contractor-could-be-saxtons-handpicked-successor-14302

Huh? Are the Republicans trying to lose this seat? Why would Saxton nudge Allen, ostensibly the most electable moderate, out of the race in favor of an unknown defense contractor? First, Saxton allocates fed dollars for Lockheed Martin, and then he tries to turn his House seat over to a Lockheed employee?  Anybody smell quid pro quo? If Saxton is hired as a defense lobbyist, we'll know that a deal was in the works.

[Conan]

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http://politickernj.com/defense-contractor-could-be-saxtons-handpicked-successor-14302

Huh? Are the Republicans trying to lose this seat? Why would Saxton nudge Allen, ostensibly the most electable moderate, out of the race in favor of an unknown defense contractor? First, Saxton allocates fed dollars for Lockheed Martin, and then he tries to turn his House seat over to a Lockheed employee?  Anybody smell quid pro quo? If Saxton is hired as a defense lobbyist, we'll know that a deal was in the works.

Why would he endorse a liberal?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politickernj.com/defense-contractor-could-be-saxtons-handpicked-successor-14302

Huh? Are the Republicans trying to lose this seat? Why would Saxton nudge Allen, ostensibly the most electable moderate, out of the race in favor of an unknown defense contractor? First, Saxton allocates fed dollars for Lockheed Martin, and then he tries to turn his House seat over to a Lockheed employee?  Anybody smell quid pro quo? If Saxton is hired as a defense lobbyist, we'll know that a deal was in the works.

Why would he endorse a liberal?

I'm pretty sure Saxton was there at the Diane Allen for U.S. Senate victory party in 2002...

[MAS117]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

[MAS117]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

[Conan]

As I predicted.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

I'm not sure that there are any strong challengers from Ocean still considering bids if Chris Conners isn't running.  I put little stock in the freeholders, but perhaps one of the Assemblycritters could make this a two or three point race.

I'd expect the race to get blisteringly negative now.  (Much more so than the race in NJ-07.  If Lance wins the nod, I'd expect NJ-07 to be unusually civil.  He's lucky that Ferguson drove up Stender's negatives for him.)

Republicans in NJ-03 definitely need Giuliani on the ticket now.  If he's winning the district, Republicans still have a shot here.

[Mr.Phips]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

I'm not sure that there are any strong challengers from Ocean still considering bids if Chris Conners isn't running.  I put little stock in the freeholders, but perhaps one of the Assemblycritters could make this a two or three point race.

I'd expect the race to get blisteringly negative now.  (Much more so than the race in NJ-07.  If Lance wins the nod, I'd expect NJ-07 to be unusually civil.  He's lucky that Ferguson drove up Stender's negatives for him.)

Republicans in NJ-03 definitely need Giuliani on the ticket now.  If he's winning the district, Republicans still have a shot here.

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

I'm not sure that there are any strong challengers from Ocean still considering bids if Chris Conners isn't running.  I put little stock in the freeholders, but perhaps one of the Assemblycritters could make this a two or three point race.

I'd expect the race to get blisteringly negative now.  (Much more so than the race in NJ-07.  If Lance wins the nod, I'd expect NJ-07 to be unusually civil.  He's lucky that Ferguson drove up Stender's negatives for him.)

Republicans in NJ-03 definitely need Giuliani on the ticket now.  If he's winning the district, Republicans still have a shot here.

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

It's looking less and less likely that Romney will be the nominee.  Dude is in a freefall in Iowa.

Still, if Huckabee is the beneficiary of that, I'm not sure he's a better fit for NJ-03 than Romney.  (Huckabee'll still win huge in Ocean County, of course.)

[Brittain33]

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

Here's a question: we can all come up with states where Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain helps with down-ticket races.

Is there any place in the country where Mitt Romney would have a positive effect? Idaho and Utah max out Republican already. It isn't Massachusetts, and come November, it won't be New Hampshire, either. Maybe he could return UT-2 to the Republicans with a strong candidate, but everywhere else, you think "aw geez, Romney's going to kill it for the Republican."

[Adlai Stevenson]

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

Here's a question: we can all come up with states where Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain helps with down-ticket races.

Is there any place in the country where Mitt Romney would have a positive effect? Idaho and Utah max out Republican already. It isn't Massachusetts, and come November, it won't be New Hampshire, either. Maybe he could return UT-2 to the Republicans with a strong candidate, but everywhere else, you think "aw geez, Romney's going to kill it for the Republican."

Giuliani would be the best candidate in still bad circumstances for the GOP here and elsewhere in 2008.  I think the Republican Party may get a slight break and end up nominating him with Huckabee as Vice President, possibly. 

[Mr.Phips]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

I'm not sure that there are any strong challengers from Ocean still considering bids if Chris Conners isn't running.  I put little stock in the freeholders, but perhaps one of the Assemblycritters could make this a two or three point race.

I'd expect the race to get blisteringly negative now.  (Much more so than the race in NJ-07.  If Lance wins the nod, I'd expect NJ-07 to be unusually civil.  He's lucky that Ferguson drove up Stender's negatives for him.)

Republicans in NJ-03 definitely need Giuliani on the ticket now.  If he's winning the district, Republicans still have a shot here.

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

It's looking less and less likely that Romney will be the nominee.  Dude is in a freefall in Iowa.

Still, if Huckabee is the beneficiary of that, I'm not sure he's a better fit for NJ-03 than Romney.  (Huckabee'll still win huge in Ocean County, of course.)

I don't know if he would even win Ocean County.  Al Gore almost carried it in 2000 and Clinton did carry it in 1996. 

[Mr.Phips]

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

Here's a question: we can all come up with states where Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain helps with down-ticket races.

Is there any place in the country where Mitt Romney would have a positive effect? Idaho and Utah max out Republican already. It isn't Massachusetts, and come November, it won't be New Hampshire, either. Maybe he could return UT-2 to the Republicans with a strong candidate, but everywhere else, you think "aw geez, Romney's going to kill it for the Republican."

He would probably carry Nevada, where he may help John Porter in NV-03. 

[MarkWarner08]

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

Here's a question: we can all come up with states where Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain helps with down-ticket races.

Is there any place in the country where Mitt Romney would have a positive effect? Idaho and Utah max out Republican already. It isn't Massachusetts, and come November, it won't be New Hampshire, either. Maybe he could return UT-2 to the Republicans with a strong candidate, but everywhere else, you think "aw geez, Romney's going to kill it for the Republican."

He would probably carry Nevada, where he may help John Porter in NV-03. 

Little pet peeve here -- I'm really tired of people misspelling Rep. Jon Porter's name. No "h," because his birth name is Jonathan. A relative of mine works in his office and he tells me that part of his job is correcting the way reporters spelling of Rep. Porter's name.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This I've never understood: If Romney is slick enough to win the Primary Election, what makes you think he's going to be so easy and effortless to beat in the General Election?

[Verily]

This I've never understood: If Romney is slick enough to win the Primary Election, what makes you think he's going to be so easy and effortless to beat in the General Election?

To be fair, with the exception of Huckabee, Romney's not exactly facing the dream team of Republican primaries.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This I've never understood: If Romney is slick enough to win the Primary Election, what makes you think he's going to be so easy and effortless to beat in the General Election?

Because he polls horribly in the GE?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This I've never understood: If Romney is slick enough to win the Primary Election, what makes you think he's going to be so easy and effortless to beat in the General Election?

Because he polls horribly in the GE?

So did Al Gore at first.

Romney's not trying to win a GE right now.  He's trying to win a PE.  He's given Independents and Democrats absolutely no reason to vote for him because that's largely incompatible with winning a GOP primary with skeptical conservative credentials, so yeah, dude's gonna poll terribly on a GE ballot.

I'm no Romney fan to say the least, but I don't think the assumptions of Romney being completely and totally blown out are especially realistic.  I don't think he'll win, but I don't think he'll lose in a landslide, either.