Rep. Jim Saxton to retire
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  Rep. Jim Saxton to retire
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Author Topic: Rep. Jim Saxton to retire  (Read 6822 times)
MarkWarner08
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« on: November 09, 2007, 01:49:58 PM »
« edited: November 09, 2007, 01:57:22 PM by MarkWarner08 »

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20071109_N_J_s_Congressman_Saxton_to_retire.html

Looks like health played a role in his decision...
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2007, 02:19:33 PM »

This will be another Dem pickup.
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2007, 02:43:50 PM »


Diane Allen wins the seat by five over Adler.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2007, 03:55:51 PM »


If she's running, I'd say her chances depend a lot on who the Republicans nominate for President, because it's a D+3 district and she can't hope to compete financially with Adler in an expensive media market.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2007, 04:03:10 PM »


And a Democrat picks up her Senate seat in a Special Election.
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2007, 04:09:40 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2007, 04:18:52 PM by Beck/Panter/O'Scanlon '07 »


And a Democrat picks up her Senate seat in a Special Election.

Probably, though that'd be well off in November 2009.  I'd guess Sheriff Jean Stanfield (an incumbent State Senator, at that point) would lose by about three or four points.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2007, 05:40:24 PM »


Ive done some thinking here and would agree with you if Giuliani is the nominee, since open races usually closely track the Presidential numbers.  If its anybody else, I think Adler wins this. 
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« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2007, 10:36:41 PM »

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Verily
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2007, 10:39:31 PM »

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If there's a Republican in NJ I support, it's Allen. Still, I am skeptical of her ability to distance herself from the national Republicans, especially given that Adler will be much better funded (so she may have to rely on the NRCC).
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« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2007, 10:51:42 PM »

Here's are some numbers I crunched for another website.

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2007, 10:52:04 PM »

(so she may have to rely on the NRCC).

In that case, she's screwed!
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« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2007, 10:56:23 PM »


Diane Allen is in the GOP State Senate leadership, so she seldom has problems raising money.  She raised $600k for her failed primary run in 2002, so she's got a pretty good donor base set up already.
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« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2007, 11:33:58 PM »


Diane Allen is in the GOP State Senate leadership, so she seldom has problems raising money.  She raised $600k for her failed primary run in 2002, so she's got a pretty good donor base set up already.

Well, certainly, but, as we've seen countless times, $600,000 is chump change. Adler will be spending at least $5 million on this race; can Allen really keep up with that (especially when the Republicans will also be defending Ferguson, who has more support from state conservatives)?
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2007, 01:30:19 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2007, 01:35:19 AM by MarkWarner08 »


Diane Allen is in the GOP State Senate leadership, so she seldom has problems raising money.  She raised $600k for her failed primary run in 2002, so she's got a pretty good donor base set up already.

Well, certainly, but, as we've seen countless times, $600,000 is chump change. Adler will be spending at least $5 million on this race; can Allen really keep up with that (especially when the Republicans will also be defending Ferguson, who has more support from state conservatives)?

Adler raising $5 million? No es posible. Rush Holt didn't even raise 3 million when he was facing off against Zimmer in 2000. How can Adler possibly raising that kind of cash? That amount would represent the most money spent by a non-self funder since the infamous Regan-Schiff debacle that reached a combined $10 million.

Edit: According to opensecrets.org, Nancy Johnson, Clay Shaw and Tom Reynolds all spent over $5 million.What's the difference between Adler and the three aforementioned Republicans? Adler's not a member of Ways and Means and he doesn't have access to the NRCC's donor rolls.
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« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2007, 01:40:18 AM »


Diane Allen is in the GOP State Senate leadership, so she seldom has problems raising money.  She raised $600k for her failed primary run in 2002, so she's got a pretty good donor base set up already.

Well, certainly, but, as we've seen countless times, $600,000 is chump change. Adler will be spending at least $5 million on this race; can Allen really keep up with that (especially when the Republicans will also be defending Ferguson, who has more support from state conservatives)?

Oh, I'm not saying she can run a race on just $600,000, just that she's got a good fundraising base.  I'd expect her to be able to raise exactly what she needs to wage a very competitive race...probably damn near close to $3 million.

I think you're overestimating the amount Adler will be able to raise here.  It's not like Norcross has a vested financial interest in picking up the seat.  I'd guess Adler raises $3 million too.  There won't be a significant fundraising gap here.

And even if there does wind up being a significant gap, it should be noted that Allen's years as an evening news anchor on WCAU (CBS Philly) gives her a tremendous positive name ID advantage.  That's got to be worth at least $1 million in the bank.



(Mike Ferguson already has well over $1 million in the bank—he's a prolific fundraiser, and shouldn't prove to be a distraction to Allen in her race.  They're just not going to be raising it from the same places.  And remember, both parties were more than able to wage two very high profile races in 2000 when Democrats defended Holt and Republicans defended the Franks open seat.)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2007, 08:14:20 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2007, 08:20:48 AM by brittain33 »


And even if there does wind up being a significant gap, it should be noted that Allen's years as an evening news anchor on WCAU (CBS Philly) gives her a tremendous positive name ID advantage.  That's got to be worth at least $1 million in the bank.


She hasn't been on tv in 10 years, and I don't know how one could tease out the advantages of incumbency in a small part of the CD from what advantages she'd have running in a much larger district. She also looks much different now, to be polite about it.

But the race is about to start, so we'll see soon enough if Allen raises the cash she needs and polls well against Adler. He's certainly got his own structural disadvantages.

Have the Democrats successfully caged Susan Bass Levin?
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Conan
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« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2007, 03:37:38 PM »

Dem pick up. Not even Allen will be able to compete. She might have been able to raise money but that was years ago when the GOP could actually raise money. My bet is that she won't enter.
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« Reply #17 on: November 10, 2007, 06:38:20 PM »

but what happenes when state sneator bodine challenges adler in the primary/?  Sad
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« Reply #18 on: November 10, 2007, 08:22:14 PM »

Seriously, though, the district by the numbers is an incredibly tough nut for Adler to crack if Allen is the GOP nominee.

Essentially, the district is comprised of Cherry Hill (Adler's hometown), LD 7 (Allen's district), LD 8, LD 9, and LD 10.  For any Democrat to win here, they need to win Cherry Hill (a given that Adler will carry it in 2008) and win LD 7 to compensate for the strong GOP advantage in District 8, 9, and 10.  And we just saw less than a week ago that no amount of money is going to flip District 8 to favor Democrats...and as you move east into Ocean County, which Bush carried by about 21 points...well, Adler's numbers are only going to get even worse.

Of course Adler will best Allen in LD 6.  Unfortunately for Adler, LD 6 has extremely limited overlap with NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 7?  No, I don't think so, especially considering that the most Democratic areas of LD 7, such as Pennsauken (which Diane Allen failed to carry in 2003 or 2007), aren't even in NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 8?  Probably not.  He might be able to keep it close there, but after Norcross flooded the district with money, Haines (R) still won the open State Senate race by over 20 points.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 9?  Definitely not, no way, no chance in hell.  It's the most Republican part of the district, the heart of Ocean County.  Diane Allen would win LD9 by a huge margin.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 10?  Again, no.  It's just more of staunchly Republican Ocean County.

Just putting the numbers together, it's hard to see how Adler wins, especially considering all his built in negatives as a product of the Norcross machine.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't even necessarily that close.

She hasn't been on tv in 10 years, and I don't know how one could tease out the advantages of incumbency in a small part of the CD from what advantages she'd have running in a much larger district. She also looks much different now, to be polite about it.

But the race is about to start, so we'll see soon enough if Allen raises the cash she needs and polls well against Adler. He's certainly got his own structural disadvantages.

Keep in mind, of course, that Diane Allen has gone on Philly TV in 2002 (for her U.S. Senate run), 2003 (for her State Senate run), and probably in 2007.  There's just no way to target only District 7 when running for re-election.

The real benefit Diane Allen has, of course, is as stated above: her legislative district overlaps the most Democratic areas of Saxton's district—a district that already favors a generic Republican.

No part of District 6 has been competitive for years, so Adler simply hasn't been making the same media buys that Allen has.

Have the Democrats successfully caged Susan Bass Levin?

Susan Bass Levin is a non factor.  She's disgraced herself so extensively that she wouldn't even get 1/3 of the vote in a Democratic primary.
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Conan
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« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2007, 10:21:00 PM »

Seriously, though, the district by the numbers is an incredibly tough nut for Adler to crack if Allen is the GOP nominee.

Essentially, the district is comprised of Cherry Hill (Adler's hometown), LD 7 (Allen's district), LD 8, LD 9, and LD 10.  For any Democrat to win here, they need to win Cherry Hill (a given that Adler will carry it in 2008) and win LD 7 to compensate for the strong GOP advantage in District 8, 9, and 10.  And we just saw less than a week ago that no amount of money is going to flip District 8 to favor Democrats...and as you move east into Ocean County, which Bush carried by about 21 points...well, Adler's numbers are only going to get even worse.

Of course Adler will best Allen in LD 6.  Unfortunately for Adler, LD 6 has extremely limited overlap with NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 7?  No, I don't think so, especially considering that the most Democratic areas of LD 7, such as Pennsauken (which Diane Allen failed to carry in 2003 or 2007), aren't even in NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 8?  Probably not.  He might be able to keep it close there, but after Norcross flooded the district with money, Haines (R) still won the open State Senate race by over 20 points.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 9?  Definitely not, no way, no chance in hell.  It's the most Republican part of the district, the heart of Ocean County.  Diane Allen would win LD9 by a huge margin.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 10?  Again, no.  It's just more of staunchly Republican Ocean County.

Just putting the numbers together, it's hard to see how Adler wins, especially considering all his built in negatives as a product of the Norcross machine.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't even necessarily that close.

She hasn't been on tv in 10 years, and I don't know how one could tease out the advantages of incumbency in a small part of the CD from what advantages she'd have running in a much larger district. She also looks much different now, to be polite about it.

But the race is about to start, so we'll see soon enough if Allen raises the cash she needs and polls well against Adler. He's certainly got his own structural disadvantages.

Keep in mind, of course, that Diane Allen has gone on Philly TV in 2002 (for her U.S. Senate run), 2003 (for her State Senate run), and probably in 2007.  There's just no way to target only District 7 when running for re-election.

The real benefit Diane Allen has, of course, is as stated above: her legislative district overlaps the most Democratic areas of Saxton's district—a district that already favors a generic Republican.

No part of District 6 has been competitive for years, so Adler simply hasn't been making the same media buys that Allen has.

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2007, 10:58:56 PM »

Seriously, though, the district by the numbers is an incredibly tough nut for Adler to crack if Allen is the GOP nominee.

Essentially, the district is comprised of Cherry Hill (Adler's hometown), LD 7 (Allen's district), LD 8, LD 9, and LD 10.  For any Democrat to win here, they need to win Cherry Hill (a given that Adler will carry it in 2008) and win LD 7 to compensate for the strong GOP advantage in District 8, 9, and 10.  And we just saw less than a week ago that no amount of money is going to flip District 8 to favor Democrats...and as you move east into Ocean County, which Bush carried by about 21 points...well, Adler's numbers are only going to get even worse.

Of course Adler will best Allen in LD 6.  Unfortunately for Adler, LD 6 has extremely limited overlap with NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 7?  No, I don't think so, especially considering that the most Democratic areas of LD 7, such as Pennsauken (which Diane Allen failed to carry in 2003 or 2007), aren't even in NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 8?  Probably not.  He might be able to keep it close there, but after Norcross flooded the district with money, Haines (R) still won the open State Senate race by over 20 points.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 9?  Definitely not, no way, no chance in hell.  It's the most Republican part of the district, the heart of Ocean County.  Diane Allen would win LD9 by a huge margin.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 10?  Again, no.  It's just more of staunchly Republican Ocean County.

Just putting the numbers together, it's hard to see how Adler wins, especially considering all his built in negatives as a product of the Norcross machine.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't even necessarily that close.

She hasn't been on tv in 10 years, and I don't know how one could tease out the advantages of incumbency in a small part of the CD from what advantages she'd have running in a much larger district. She also looks much different now, to be polite about it.

But the race is about to start, so we'll see soon enough if Allen raises the cash she needs and polls well against Adler. He's certainly got his own structural disadvantages.

Keep in mind, of course, that Diane Allen has gone on Philly TV in 2002 (for her U.S. Senate run), 2003 (for her State Senate run), and probably in 2007.  There's just no way to target only District 7 when running for re-election.

The real benefit Diane Allen has, of course, is as stated above: her legislative district overlaps the most Democratic areas of Saxton's district—a district that already favors a generic Republican.

No part of District 6 has been competitive for years, so Adler simply hasn't been making the same media buys that Allen has.

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

I agree with you.  The only way Allen is the favorite is if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican nominee. 
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« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2007, 12:25:06 AM »

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

Diane Allen has run during Gubernatorial years too, you know, when turnout was much higher than in 2007.

And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results?  Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.

Bob Franks, Doug Forrester ('02 and '05), and Tom Kean Jr. all carried NJ-03 in their statewide runs.  In fact, I think Al Gore is about the only Democrat in recent history to carry the district.

Sorry, as much as you'd like it to be so, John Adler v. Diane Allen is not the matchup that's going to flip that tradition.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2007, 12:49:14 AM »

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

Diane Allen has run during Gubernatorial years too, you know, when turnout was much higher than in 2007.

And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results?  Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.

Bob Franks, Doug Forrester ('02 and '05), and Tom Kean Jr. all carried NJ-03 in their statewide runs.  In fact, I think Al Gore is about the only Democrat in recent history to carry the district.

Sorry, as much as you'd like it to be so, John Adler v. Diane Allen is not the matchup that's going to flip that tradition.

Clinton carried it twice handily. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: November 11, 2007, 10:44:40 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2007, 10:53:04 AM by brittain33 »


And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results?  Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.

1. The 7th district race in 2000 was much closer than it had any right to be because of Gore's coattails, just as the 1998 race was unreasonably competitive due to revulsion at Monicagate. Ferguson outran Bush, but Bush so far underperformed in that district that he dragged Ferguson down. You have to look at the spread, not just the results.

1a. 2000 was a great year for House Republicans everywhere but California and southern Arkansas. You swept the open seats, by and large. The generic ballot for 2008 still looks the way it did in 2006, when Republicans didn't do as well as in 2000.

2. Clinton's coattails in 1996 helped Bill Pascrell take out Bill Martini. Having the Republican candidate identified with the regionalist conservatives who dominate the party is the kiss of death in N.J.

3. If Bush were running in 2002, he'd have far outrun his numbers in 2000, as you surely know.

Maybe Diane Allen will win. We'll have to see how this plays out. I can understand the appeal of the kind of moderate Republicanism she represents and why you'd want that to return to Washington. However, given the potential toxic climate and financial problems northern Republicans will face in 2008, and the strong disconnect between state and federal partisanship (anyone want to promote a MS legislative Democrat for senator?), there is just no way for someone to shut down this discussion by declaring Allen will win and anyone who disagrees just doesn't get it.

Maybe she'll win. Maybe Adler will win. But this isn't 2002, and it isn't 2003.
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Conan
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« Reply #24 on: November 11, 2007, 02:28:14 PM »

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

Diane Allen has run during Gubernatorial years too, you know, when turnout was much higher than in 2007.

And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results?  Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.

Bob Franks, Doug Forrester ('02 and '05), and Tom Kean Jr. all carried NJ-03 in their statewide runs.  In fact, I think Al Gore is about the only Democrat in recent history to carry the district.

Sorry, as much as you'd like it to be so, John Adler v. Diane Allen is not the matchup that's going to flip that tradition.
2006 was a great year to show that people arent going to send a republican down to washington no matter how dem friendly they are. Also, those gubernatorial elections still have 20% less turnout than pres elections.
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