Rep. Jim Saxton to retire

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

1. The 7th district race in 2000 was much closer than it had any right to be because of Gore's coattails, just as the 1998 race was unreasonably competitive due to revulsion at Monicagate. Ferguson outran Bush, but Bush so far underperformed in that district that he dragged Ferguson down. You have to look at the spread, not just the results.

Closer than it deserved to be?  Mike Ferguson is more conservative than Franks, had a political resume that existed solely of a loss to Pallone, and he didn't even live in the district.  Granted, Mary Anne Connelly wound up being a bad candidate herself, but there is no reason why a nobody like Mike Ferguson should have walked away with that election.

1a. 2000 was a great year for House Republicans everywhere but California and southern Arkansas. You swept the open seats, by and large. The generic ballot for 2008 still looks the way it did in 2006, when Republicans didn't do as well as in 2000.

If 2008 is like 2006, that's terrific news for Allen.  Republicans carried NJ-03 on every level in 2006.

2. Clinton's coattails in 1996 helped Bill Pascrell take out Bill Martini. Having the Republican candidate identified with the regionalist conservatives who dominate the party is the kiss of death in N.J.

Um, okay, Clinton did help knock out Bill Martini.  But Martini FAR outran Dole in the district, whom Clinton absolutely creamed.  Martini's district was more Democratic than Republican, unlike NJ-03.

However, given the potential toxic climate and financial problems northern Republicans will face in 2008, and the strong disconnect between state and federal partisanship (anyone want to promote a MS legislative Democrat for senator?), there is just no way for someone to shut down this discussion by declaring Allen will win and anyone who disagrees just doesn't get it.

Which is why I've given plenty of good reasons why Allen will win.  She's going to win the LD-07 part of the district, the LD-08 part of the district, the LD-09 part of the district, and the LD-10 part of the district.  All politics is local.

2006 was a great year to show that people arent going to send a republican down to washington no matter how dem friendly they are. Also, those gubernatorial elections still have 20% less turnout than pres elections.

Again, like I said, Tom Kean Jr. won NJ-03 in 2006 by around 3 points.  Not exactly the best example for team blue to be using here.

And I don't care how much turnout is up in a Presidential year, Diane Allen will still carry the LD-07 part of her district.  It's not like her margins there are razor thin.

Clinton carried it twice handily. 

Which is why I said recent history.  Things have changed quite a bit politically since 1992.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm pretty sure that Gore carried this district too, even under its current lines. Unlike Ferguson's.

[Brittain33]

It sounds like if the Republicans can successfully convince voters that Sen. Adler is from Jersey City and will go to Congress to funnel money to North Jersey, the same dynamic that has come into play in all of those other elections will sweep Diane Allen into office.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It sounds like if the Republicans can successfully convince voters that Sen. Adler is from Jersey City and will go to Congress to funnel money to North Jersey, the same dynamic that has come into play in all of those other elections will sweep Diane Allen into office.

In NJ-03, replace "Jersey City" with "Camden," and you've got your strategy.  And considering Adler's obvious and inescapable ties to Norcross, it's certainly not far off!

[Conan]

1. The 7th district race in 2000 was much closer than it had any right to be because of Gore's coattails, just as the 1998 race was unreasonably competitive due to revulsion at Monicagate. Ferguson outran Bush, but Bush so far underperformed in that district that he dragged Ferguson down. You have to look at the spread, not just the results.

Closer than it deserved to be?  Mike Ferguson is more conservative than Franks, had a political resume that existed solely of a loss to Pallone, and he didn't even live in the district.  Granted, Mary Anne Connelly wound up being a bad candidate herself, but there is no reason why a nobody like Mike Ferguson should have walked away with that election.

1a. 2000 was a great year for House Republicans everywhere but California and southern Arkansas. You swept the open seats, by and large. The generic ballot for 2008 still looks the way it did in 2006, when Republicans didn't do as well as in 2000.

If 2008 is like 2006, that's terrific news for Allen.  Republicans carried NJ-03 on every level in 2006.

2. Clinton's coattails in 1996 helped Bill Pascrell take out Bill Martini. Having the Republican candidate identified with the regionalist conservatives who dominate the party is the kiss of death in N.J.

Um, okay, Clinton did help knock out Bill Martini.  But Martini FAR outran Dole in the district, whom Clinton absolutely creamed.  Martini's district was more Democratic than Republican, unlike NJ-03.

However, given the potential toxic climate and financial problems northern Republicans will face in 2008, and the strong disconnect between state and federal partisanship (anyone want to promote a MS legislative Democrat for senator?), there is just no way for someone to shut down this discussion by declaring Allen will win and anyone who disagrees just doesn't get it.

Which is why I've given plenty of good reasons why Allen will win.  She's going to win the LD-07 part of the district, the LD-08 part of the district, the LD-09 part of the district, and the LD-10 part of the district.  All politics is local.

2006 was a great year to show that people arent going to send a republican down to washington no matter how dem friendly they are. Also, those gubernatorial elections still have 20% less turnout than pres elections.

Again, like I said, Tom Kean Jr. won NJ-03 in 2006 by around 3 points.  Not exactly the best example for team blue to be using here.

And I don't care how much turnout is up in a Presidential year, Diane Allen will still carry the LD-07 part of her district.  It's not like her margins there are razor thin.

Clinton carried it twice handily. 

Which is why I said recent history.  Things have changed quite a bit politically since 1992.

So Tom Kean Jr won this seat against a hispanic from Hudson county who was under federal criminal investigation by a mere 3 %??

Adler is going into this election as of right now as the front runner. There's really nothing you can say that can deny that. Maybe when Allen gets in and we see her fundraising, it will be different. Also, 2006 didnt have the 70%+ turnout. This district is going to be carried by Hillary Clinton and Rudy won't be on the ballot.  You need to focus on presidential election figures. Everything you cite is irrelevent based on voter turnout. And we all know how trying to tie Van Drew and Whelan to Norcross did for the republicans.

[Conan]

OK OK...
MR. Moderate... all I need to know is where you rate this race to see how off you are just to clear the air as to where I seem to think you are.
From these categories:
Safe Rep
Likely Rep
Leans Rep
Toss Up / Leans Rep
Toss Up
Toss Up / Leans Dem
and so on...
where do you rate this race?

If your rating isn't somewhere between (Toss Up / Leans Rep) and Leans Rep  to somewhere going down to the dem side, then we all know you have no idea what your talking about, no matter how long a list of information, albeit irrelevent, you write.
If Diane Allen is the challenger, for my prediction, I'd say it's between Toss up and (toss up / leans dem) for all of the obvious reasons.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If your rating isn't somewhere between (Toss Up / Leans Rep) and Leans Rep  to somewhere going down to the dem side, then we all know you have no idea what your talking about, no matter how long a list of information, albeit irrelevent, you write.
If Diane Allen is the challenger, for my prediction, I'd say it's between Toss up and (toss up / leans dem) for all of the obvious reasons.

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

And surely, I have no idea what I'm talking about.  We should all listen to you instead, who said that the Haines/Bodine race would be highly competitive and that Jen Beck was a goner.

[Conan]

If your rating isn't somewhere between (Toss Up / Leans Rep) and Leans Rep  to somewhere going down to the dem side, then we all know you have no idea what your talking about, no matter how long a list of information, albeit irrelevent, you write.
If Diane Allen is the challenger, for my prediction, I'd say it's between Toss up and (toss up / leans dem) for all of the obvious reasons.

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

And surely, I have no idea what I'm talking about.  We should all listen to you instead, who said that the Haines/Bodine race would be highly competitive and that Jen Beck was a goner.

Maybe you shouldn't make stuff up. Because I said Jen Beck was going to win and the last time I mentioned the Bodine race was months ago. Anyway, you've consistently shown that you either weren't a political reporter or just a really bad one.

Edit:
I looked up what I said about Bodine. I said he had a shot, which he did and almost all political reporters agreed with that. I never predicted a win, I said he had a shot which you dismissed off the bat. As for Jen Beck, my prediction said Karcher was going to win because I said that I was in denial, which means I knew Beck was going to win. I'll go get my quote.

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[MarkWarner08]

If your rating isn't somewhere between (Toss Up / Leans Rep) and Leans Rep  to somewhere going down to the dem side, then we all know you have no idea what your talking about, no matter how long a list of information, albeit irrelevent, you write.
If Diane Allen is the challenger, for my prediction, I'd say it's between Toss up and (toss up / leans dem) for all of the obvious reasons.

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

And surely, I have no idea what I'm talking about.  We should all listen to you instead, who said that the Haines/Bodine race would be highly competitive and that Jen Beck was a goner.

As an out of stater, I find it quite amusing and edifying to hear two highly involved New Jersey politicos duke it over political minutiae. Your combined knowledge with surely be quite helpful next year as New Jersey plays host to two or three competitive House elections.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Maybe you shouldn't make stuff up. Because I said Jen Beck was going to win and the last time I mentioned the Bodine race was months ago. Anyway, you've consistently shown that you either weren't a political reporter or just a really bad one.

So, what exactly is the deal with you obsessing over my being a political reporter?  Every time you get partisanly flustered, you seem to bring it up (as an insult, of course).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maybe you shouldn't make stuff up. Because I said Jen Beck was going to win and the last time I mentioned the Bodine race was months ago. Anyway, you've consistently shown that you either weren't a political reporter or just a really bad one.

So, what exactly is the deal with you obsessing over my being a political reporter?  Every time you get partisanly flustered, you seem to bring it up (as an insult, of course).

Because Conan is completely incapable of making valid arguments to defend his insanely delusional hackery.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I looked up what I said about Bodine. I said he had a shot, which he did and almost all political reporters agreed with that. I never predicted a win, I said he had a shot which you dismissed off the bat.

Not to rub it in or anything, but most candidates with a "shot" don't lose a supposedly competitive race by 23 points after outspending their opponent by two to one.

[HardRCafé]

Because Conan is completely incapable of making valid arguments to defend his insanely delusional hackery.

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop.

[Brittain33]

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

Ok. I think the reason this thread has gotten so involved is because I would have described your view as Likely Rep from the way you fleshed out the scenarios.

I don't agree with your assessment, but I don't think it's an unreasonable approach to the race.

[Conan]

Maybe you shouldn't make stuff up. Because I said Jen Beck was going to win and the last time I mentioned the Bodine race was months ago. Anyway, you've consistently shown that you either weren't a political reporter or just a really bad one.

So, what exactly is the deal with you obsessing over my being a political reporter?  Every time you get partisanly flustered, you seem to bring it up (as an insult, of course).

Because Conan is completely incapable of making valid arguments to defend his insanely delusional hackery.

This coming from BTRD? I think that's your reputation. I've never made any hack predictions. I got all of 2006 right and generally 2007, too. I mention him being a political reporter because you'd seem to think he'd know a little more about what he's talking about. But it turns out that toss up /leans rep is a completely reasonable stance for NJ3.

[Conan]

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

Ok. I think the reason this thread has gotten so involved is because I would have described your view as Likely Rep from the way you fleshed out the scenarios.

I don't agree with your assessment, but I don't think it's an unreasonable approach to the race.

That's what I thought. He talks of many races as if they will be safe holds when it turns out he doesn't mean that at all.

I looked up what I said about Bodine. I said he had a shot, which he did and almost all political reporters agreed with that. I never predicted a win, I said he had a shot which you dismissed off the bat.

Not to rub it in or anything, but most candidates with a "shot" don't lose a supposedly competitive race by 23 points after outspending their opponent by two to one.

Expected results and actual results are two different things.

[Conan]

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[Conan]

I've read that Ocean County's and BurlCo's GOP Chairmen have other people in mind such as BurlCo Freeholder Aubrey Fenton and OC wants someone from there. OC Freeholder John Kelly apparently wants in, too.

It can be a free for all for the GOP while the dems are solidly behind Adler.

[Conan]

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[MAS117]

David Norcross would be an excellent candidate for the GOP. However, he lacks the name ID (although he does have that last name) that candidates like Allen have.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

David Norcross would be an excellent candidate for the GOP. However, he lacks the name ID (although he does have that last name) that candidates like Allen have.

I don't know about that.  A candidate who ran for the U.S. Senate in 1976 doesn't strike me as the best choice to hold NJ-03 thirty-two years later.

If I'm running the NJ GOP, I'm putting all my weight behind Allen.  And if she passes, I've got to go to Chris Connors as the second best.

I've read that Ocean County's and BurlCo's GOP Chairmen have other people in mind such as BurlCo Freeholder Aubrey Fenton and OC wants someone from there. OC Freeholder John Kelly apparently wants in, too.

It can be a free for all for the GOP while the dems are solidly behind Adler.

Right, though the question is whether or not someone like Aubrey Fenton or one of the Ocean County freeholders would be able to raise money for a serious Primary challenge when the NRCC clearly prefers Allen.

For Allen to be defeated in a GOP primary, I think that it needs to be a two-man race, and that other man has to be a heavy hitter from Ocean County like Senator Connors or Assemblyman Rumpf.  For conservatives, Connors would easily be the best choice.  Maybe Norcross, if he can get big money for the Primary run, though he probably has the wrong last name to be running as a Republican in South Jersey. 

And the Burl Co. GOP feud needs to continue through June 2008 to ensure Allen's margins in the county are weakened.  (Essentially, the new GOP chair of Burlington needs to deny Allen the line.)  She got 72% of the vote in Burlington County in the three-way GOP primary for U.S. Senate, with a 10,000+ vote margin over Forrester.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

Ok. I think the reason this thread has gotten so involved is because I would have described your view as Likely Rep from the way you fleshed out the scenarios.

I don't agree with your assessment, but I don't think it's an unreasonable approach to the race.

While I strongly doubt that Adler will actually win, it's hard to put the race, in good conscience, any higher for the GOP than Toss Up/Lean Rep this far out from the election.  Once I know more about the national mood in 2008 and the GOP Presidential nominee, I'll have a much firmer grip on the race.

I'm very certain Adler will lose by at least a point, but I can't very well call a one point win "Likely Republican," can I?

It's like my prediction for this year's State Senate race in District 8.  I knew there was virtually no way for Bodine to win, but you can't call the race "Safe Haines" when Bodine could have come within 5 of winning.

[HardRCafé]

I've never made any hack predictions.

Sorry, I thought this was Atlas Forum.  Have I been posting to the wrong place?

[Conan]

I've never made any hack predictions.

Sorry, I thought this was Atlas Forum.  Have I been posting to the wrong place?

You must be confused over what a statement and a prediction is.  I've shown no hackishness when it comes to analyzing races. I've shown a good amount of hackishness in ideology. Anyway why don't you contribute to the conversation instead of focusing on nonissues.

[Conan]

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