Rep. Jim Saxton to retire

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20071109_N_J_s_Congressman_Saxton_to_retire.html

Looks like health played a role in his decision...

[MarkWarner08]

(so she may have to rely on the NRCC).

In that case, she's screwed!

Diane Allen is in the GOP State Senate leadership, so she seldom has problems raising money.  She raised $600k for her failed primary run in 2002, so she's got a pretty good donor base set up already.

Well, certainly, but, as we've seen countless times, $600,000 is chump change. Adler will be spending at least $5 million on this race; can Allen really keep up with that (especially when the Republicans will also be defending Ferguson, who has more support from state conservatives)?

Adler raising $5 million? No es posible. Rush Holt didn't even raise 3 million when he was facing off against Zimmer in 2000. How can Adler possibly raising that kind of cash? That amount would represent the most money spent by a non-self funder since the infamous Regan-Schiff debacle that reached a combined $10 million.

Edit: According to opensecrets.org, Nancy Johnson, Clay Shaw and Tom Reynolds all spent over $5 million.What's the difference between Adler and the three aforementioned Republicans? Adler's not a member of Ways and Means and he doesn't have access to the NRCC's donor rolls.

[MarkWarner08]

If your rating isn't somewhere between (Toss Up / Leans Rep) and Leans Rep  to somewhere going down to the dem side, then we all know you have no idea what your talking about, no matter how long a list of information, albeit irrelevent, you write.
If Diane Allen is the challenger, for my prediction, I'd say it's between Toss up and (toss up / leans dem) for all of the obvious reasons.

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

And surely, I have no idea what I'm talking about.  We should all listen to you instead, who said that the Haines/Bodine race would be highly competitive and that Jen Beck was a goner.

As an out of stater, I find it quite amusing and edifying to hear two highly involved New Jersey politicos duke it over political minutiae. Your combined knowledge with surely be quite helpful next year as New Jersey plays host to two or three competitive House elections.

[MarkWarner08]

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http://politickernj.com/defense-contractor-could-be-saxtons-handpicked-successor-14302

Huh? Are the Republicans trying to lose this seat? Why would Saxton nudge Allen, ostensibly the most electable moderate, out of the race in favor of an unknown defense contractor? First, Saxton allocates fed dollars for Lockheed Martin, and then he tries to turn his House seat over to a Lockheed employee?  Anybody smell quid pro quo? If Saxton is hired as a defense lobbyist, we'll know that a deal was in the works.

[MarkWarner08]

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

Here's a question: we can all come up with states where Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain helps with down-ticket races.

Is there any place in the country where Mitt Romney would have a positive effect? Idaho and Utah max out Republican already. It isn't Massachusetts, and come November, it won't be New Hampshire, either. Maybe he could return UT-2 to the Republicans with a strong candidate, but everywhere else, you think "aw geez, Romney's going to kill it for the Republican."

He would probably carry Nevada, where he may help John Porter in NV-03. 

Little pet peeve here -- I'm really tired of people misspelling Rep. Jon Porter's name. No "h," because his birth name is Jonathan. A relative of mine works in his office and he tells me that part of his job is correcting the way reporters spelling of Rep. Porter's name.