Rep. Jim Saxton to retire

[Conan]

Dem pick up. Not even Allen will be able to compete. She might have been able to raise money but that was years ago when the GOP could actually raise money. My bet is that she won't enter.

[Conan]

Seriously, though, the district by the numbers is an incredibly tough nut for Adler to crack if Allen is the GOP nominee.

Essentially, the district is comprised of Cherry Hill (Adler's hometown), LD 7 (Allen's district), LD 8, LD 9, and LD 10.  For any Democrat to win here, they need to win Cherry Hill (a given that Adler will carry it in 2008) and win LD 7 to compensate for the strong GOP advantage in District 8, 9, and 10.  And we just saw less than a week ago that no amount of money is going to flip District 8 to favor Democrats...and as you move east into Ocean County, which Bush carried by about 21 points...well, Adler's numbers are only going to get even worse.

Of course Adler will best Allen in LD 6.  Unfortunately for Adler, LD 6 has extremely limited overlap with NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 7?  No, I don't think so, especially considering that the most Democratic areas of LD 7, such as Pennsauken (which Diane Allen failed to carry in 2003 or 2007), aren't even in NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 8?  Probably not.  He might be able to keep it close there, but after Norcross flooded the district with money, Haines (R) still won the open State Senate race by over 20 points.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 9?  Definitely not, no way, no chance in hell.  It's the most Republican part of the district, the heart of Ocean County.  Diane Allen would win LD9 by a huge margin.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 10?  Again, no.  It's just more of staunchly Republican Ocean County.

Just putting the numbers together, it's hard to see how Adler wins, especially considering all his built in negatives as a product of the Norcross machine.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't even necessarily that close.

She hasn't been on tv in 10 years, and I don't know how one could tease out the advantages of incumbency in a small part of the CD from what advantages she'd have running in a much larger district. She also looks much different now, to be polite about it.

But the race is about to start, so we'll see soon enough if Allen raises the cash she needs and polls well against Adler. He's certainly got his own structural disadvantages.

Keep in mind, of course, that Diane Allen has gone on Philly TV in 2002 (for her U.S. Senate run), 2003 (for her State Senate run), and probably in 2007.  There's just no way to target only District 7 when running for re-election.

The real benefit Diane Allen has, of course, is as stated above: her legislative district overlaps the most Democratic areas of Saxton's district—a district that already favors a generic Republican.

No part of District 6 has been competitive for years, so Adler simply hasn't been making the same media buys that Allen has.

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

[Conan]

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

Diane Allen has run during Gubernatorial years too, you know, when turnout was much higher than in 2007.

And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results?  Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.

Bob Franks, Doug Forrester ('02 and '05), and Tom Kean Jr. all carried NJ-03 in their statewide runs.  In fact, I think Al Gore is about the only Democrat in recent history to carry the district.

Sorry, as much as you'd like it to be so, John Adler v. Diane Allen is not the matchup that's going to flip that tradition.

2006 was a great year to show that people arent going to send a republican down to washington no matter how dem friendly they are. Also, those gubernatorial elections still have 20% less turnout than pres elections.

[Conan]

1. The 7th district race in 2000 was much closer than it had any right to be because of Gore's coattails, just as the 1998 race was unreasonably competitive due to revulsion at Monicagate. Ferguson outran Bush, but Bush so far underperformed in that district that he dragged Ferguson down. You have to look at the spread, not just the results.

Closer than it deserved to be?  Mike Ferguson is more conservative than Franks, had a political resume that existed solely of a loss to Pallone, and he didn't even live in the district.  Granted, Mary Anne Connelly wound up being a bad candidate herself, but there is no reason why a nobody like Mike Ferguson should have walked away with that election.

1a. 2000 was a great year for House Republicans everywhere but California and southern Arkansas. You swept the open seats, by and large. The generic ballot for 2008 still looks the way it did in 2006, when Republicans didn't do as well as in 2000.

If 2008 is like 2006, that's terrific news for Allen.  Republicans carried NJ-03 on every level in 2006.

2. Clinton's coattails in 1996 helped Bill Pascrell take out Bill Martini. Having the Republican candidate identified with the regionalist conservatives who dominate the party is the kiss of death in N.J.

Um, okay, Clinton did help knock out Bill Martini.  But Martini FAR outran Dole in the district, whom Clinton absolutely creamed.  Martini's district was more Democratic than Republican, unlike NJ-03.

However, given the potential toxic climate and financial problems northern Republicans will face in 2008, and the strong disconnect between state and federal partisanship (anyone want to promote a MS legislative Democrat for senator?), there is just no way for someone to shut down this discussion by declaring Allen will win and anyone who disagrees just doesn't get it.

Which is why I've given plenty of good reasons why Allen will win.  She's going to win the LD-07 part of the district, the LD-08 part of the district, the LD-09 part of the district, and the LD-10 part of the district.  All politics is local.

2006 was a great year to show that people arent going to send a republican down to washington no matter how dem friendly they are. Also, those gubernatorial elections still have 20% less turnout than pres elections.

Again, like I said, Tom Kean Jr. won NJ-03 in 2006 by around 3 points.  Not exactly the best example for team blue to be using here.

And I don't care how much turnout is up in a Presidential year, Diane Allen will still carry the LD-07 part of her district.  It's not like her margins there are razor thin.

Clinton carried it twice handily. 

Which is why I said recent history.  Things have changed quite a bit politically since 1992.

So Tom Kean Jr won this seat against a hispanic from Hudson county who was under federal criminal investigation by a mere 3 %??

Adler is going into this election as of right now as the front runner. There's really nothing you can say that can deny that. Maybe when Allen gets in and we see her fundraising, it will be different. Also, 2006 didnt have the 70%+ turnout. This district is going to be carried by Hillary Clinton and Rudy won't be on the ballot.  You need to focus on presidential election figures. Everything you cite is irrelevent based on voter turnout. And we all know how trying to tie Van Drew and Whelan to Norcross did for the republicans.

[Conan]

OK OK...
MR. Moderate... all I need to know is where you rate this race to see how off you are just to clear the air as to where I seem to think you are.
From these categories:
Safe Rep
Likely Rep
Leans Rep
Toss Up / Leans Rep
Toss Up
Toss Up / Leans Dem
and so on...
where do you rate this race?

If your rating isn't somewhere between (Toss Up / Leans Rep) and Leans Rep  to somewhere going down to the dem side, then we all know you have no idea what your talking about, no matter how long a list of information, albeit irrelevent, you write.
If Diane Allen is the challenger, for my prediction, I'd say it's between Toss up and (toss up / leans dem) for all of the obvious reasons.

[Conan]

If your rating isn't somewhere between (Toss Up / Leans Rep) and Leans Rep  to somewhere going down to the dem side, then we all know you have no idea what your talking about, no matter how long a list of information, albeit irrelevent, you write.
If Diane Allen is the challenger, for my prediction, I'd say it's between Toss up and (toss up / leans dem) for all of the obvious reasons.

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

And surely, I have no idea what I'm talking about.  We should all listen to you instead, who said that the Haines/Bodine race would be highly competitive and that Jen Beck was a goner.

Maybe you shouldn't make stuff up. Because I said Jen Beck was going to win and the last time I mentioned the Bodine race was months ago. Anyway, you've consistently shown that you either weren't a political reporter or just a really bad one.

Edit:
I looked up what I said about Bodine. I said he had a shot, which he did and almost all political reporters agreed with that. I never predicted a win, I said he had a shot which you dismissed off the bat. As for Jen Beck, my prediction said Karcher was going to win because I said that I was in denial, which means I knew Beck was going to win. I'll go get my quote.

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[Conan]

Maybe you shouldn't make stuff up. Because I said Jen Beck was going to win and the last time I mentioned the Bodine race was months ago. Anyway, you've consistently shown that you either weren't a political reporter or just a really bad one.

So, what exactly is the deal with you obsessing over my being a political reporter?  Every time you get partisanly flustered, you seem to bring it up (as an insult, of course).

Because Conan is completely incapable of making valid arguments to defend his insanely delusional hackery.

This coming from BTRD? I think that's your reputation. I've never made any hack predictions. I got all of 2006 right and generally 2007, too. I mention him being a political reporter because you'd seem to think he'd know a little more about what he's talking about. But it turns out that toss up /leans rep is a completely reasonable stance for NJ3.

[Conan]

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

Ok. I think the reason this thread has gotten so involved is because I would have described your view as Likely Rep from the way you fleshed out the scenarios.

I don't agree with your assessment, but I don't think it's an unreasonable approach to the race.

That's what I thought. He talks of many races as if they will be safe holds when it turns out he doesn't mean that at all.

I looked up what I said about Bodine. I said he had a shot, which he did and almost all political reporters agreed with that. I never predicted a win, I said he had a shot which you dismissed off the bat.

Not to rub it in or anything, but most candidates with a "shot" don't lose a supposedly competitive race by 23 points after outspending their opponent by two to one.

Expected results and actual results are two different things.

[Conan]

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[Conan]

I've read that Ocean County's and BurlCo's GOP Chairmen have other people in mind such as BurlCo Freeholder Aubrey Fenton and OC wants someone from there. OC Freeholder John Kelly apparently wants in, too.

It can be a free for all for the GOP while the dems are solidly behind Adler.

[Conan]

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[Conan]

I've never made any hack predictions.

Sorry, I thought this was Atlas Forum.  Have I been posting to the wrong place?

You must be confused over what a statement and a prediction is.  I've shown no hackishness when it comes to analyzing races. I've shown a good amount of hackishness in ideology. Anyway why don't you contribute to the conversation instead of focusing on nonissues.

[Conan]

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http://politickernj.com/defense-contractor-could-be-saxtons-handpicked-successor-14302

[Conan]

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http://politickernj.com/defense-contractor-could-be-saxtons-handpicked-successor-14302

Huh? Are the Republicans trying to lose this seat? Why would Saxton nudge Allen, ostensibly the most electable moderate, out of the race in favor of an unknown defense contractor? First, Saxton allocates fed dollars for Lockheed Martin, and then he tries to turn his House seat over to a Lockheed employee?  Anybody smell quid pro quo? If Saxton is hired as a defense lobbyist, we'll know that a deal was in the works.

Why would he endorse a liberal?

[Conan]

As I predicted.