Rep. Jim Saxton to retire

[Mr.Phips]

This will be another Dem pickup.

Diane Allen wins the seat by five over Adler.

And a Democrat picks up her Senate seat in a Special Election.

[Mr.Phips]

This will be another Dem pickup.

Diane Allen wins the seat by five over Adler.

Ive done some thinking here and would agree with you if Giuliani is the nominee, since open races usually closely track the Presidential numbers.  If its anybody else, I think Adler wins this. 

[Mr.Phips]

Seriously, though, the district by the numbers is an incredibly tough nut for Adler to crack if Allen is the GOP nominee.

Essentially, the district is comprised of Cherry Hill (Adler's hometown), LD 7 (Allen's district), LD 8, LD 9, and LD 10.  For any Democrat to win here, they need to win Cherry Hill (a given that Adler will carry it in 2008) and win LD 7 to compensate for the strong GOP advantage in District 8, 9, and 10.  And we just saw less than a week ago that no amount of money is going to flip District 8 to favor Democrats...and as you move east into Ocean County, which Bush carried by about 21 points...well, Adler's numbers are only going to get even worse.

Of course Adler will best Allen in LD 6.  Unfortunately for Adler, LD 6 has extremely limited overlap with NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 7?  No, I don't think so, especially considering that the most Democratic areas of LD 7, such as Pennsauken (which Diane Allen failed to carry in 2003 or 2007), aren't even in NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 8?  Probably not.  He might be able to keep it close there, but after Norcross flooded the district with money, Haines (R) still won the open State Senate race by over 20 points.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 9?  Definitely not, no way, no chance in hell.  It's the most Republican part of the district, the heart of Ocean County.  Diane Allen would win LD9 by a huge margin.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 10?  Again, no.  It's just more of staunchly Republican Ocean County.

Just putting the numbers together, it's hard to see how Adler wins, especially considering all his built in negatives as a product of the Norcross machine.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't even necessarily that close.

She hasn't been on tv in 10 years, and I don't know how one could tease out the advantages of incumbency in a small part of the CD from what advantages she'd have running in a much larger district. She also looks much different now, to be polite about it.

But the race is about to start, so we'll see soon enough if Allen raises the cash she needs and polls well against Adler. He's certainly got his own structural disadvantages.

Keep in mind, of course, that Diane Allen has gone on Philly TV in 2002 (for her U.S. Senate run), 2003 (for her State Senate run), and probably in 2007.  There's just no way to target only District 7 when running for re-election.

The real benefit Diane Allen has, of course, is as stated above: her legislative district overlaps the most Democratic areas of Saxton's district—a district that already favors a generic Republican.

No part of District 6 has been competitive for years, so Adler simply hasn't been making the same media buys that Allen has.

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

I agree with you.  The only way Allen is the favorite is if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican nominee. 

[Mr.Phips]

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

Diane Allen has run during Gubernatorial years too, you know, when turnout was much higher than in 2007.

And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results?  Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.

Bob Franks, Doug Forrester ('02 and '05), and Tom Kean Jr. all carried NJ-03 in their statewide runs.  In fact, I think Al Gore is about the only Democrat in recent history to carry the district.

Sorry, as much as you'd like it to be so, John Adler v. Diane Allen is not the matchup that's going to flip that tradition.

Clinton carried it twice handily. 

[Mr.Phips]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

I'm not sure that there are any strong challengers from Ocean still considering bids if Chris Conners isn't running.  I put little stock in the freeholders, but perhaps one of the Assemblycritters could make this a two or three point race.

I'd expect the race to get blisteringly negative now.  (Much more so than the race in NJ-07.  If Lance wins the nod, I'd expect NJ-07 to be unusually civil.  He's lucky that Ferguson drove up Stender's negatives for him.)

Republicans in NJ-03 definitely need Giuliani on the ticket now.  If he's winning the district, Republicans still have a shot here.

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

[Mr.Phips]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

I'm not sure that there are any strong challengers from Ocean still considering bids if Chris Conners isn't running.  I put little stock in the freeholders, but perhaps one of the Assemblycritters could make this a two or three point race.

I'd expect the race to get blisteringly negative now.  (Much more so than the race in NJ-07.  If Lance wins the nod, I'd expect NJ-07 to be unusually civil.  He's lucky that Ferguson drove up Stender's negatives for him.)

Republicans in NJ-03 definitely need Giuliani on the ticket now.  If he's winning the district, Republicans still have a shot here.

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

It's looking less and less likely that Romney will be the nominee.  Dude is in a freefall in Iowa.

Still, if Huckabee is the beneficiary of that, I'm not sure he's a better fit for NJ-03 than Romney.  (Huckabee'll still win huge in Ocean County, of course.)

I don't know if he would even win Ocean County.  Al Gore almost carried it in 2000 and Clinton did carry it in 1996. 

[Mr.Phips]

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

Here's a question: we can all come up with states where Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain helps with down-ticket races.

Is there any place in the country where Mitt Romney would have a positive effect? Idaho and Utah max out Republican already. It isn't Massachusetts, and come November, it won't be New Hampshire, either. Maybe he could return UT-2 to the Republicans with a strong candidate, but everywhere else, you think "aw geez, Romney's going to kill it for the Republican."

He would probably carry Nevada, where he may help John Porter in NV-03.