Rep. Jim Saxton to retire

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This will be another Dem pickup.

Diane Allen wins the seat by five over Adler.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This will be another Dem pickup.

Diane Allen wins the seat by five over Adler.

And a Democrat picks up her Senate seat in a Special Election.

Probably, though that'd be well off in November 2009.  I'd guess Sheriff Jean Stanfield (an incumbent State Senator, at that point) would lose by about three or four points.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's are some numbers I crunched for another website.

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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

(so she may have to rely on the NRCC).

In that case, she's screwed!

Diane Allen is in the GOP State Senate leadership, so she seldom has problems raising money.  She raised $600k for her failed primary run in 2002, so she's got a pretty good donor base set up already.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

(so she may have to rely on the NRCC).

In that case, she's screwed!

Diane Allen is in the GOP State Senate leadership, so she seldom has problems raising money.  She raised $600k for her failed primary run in 2002, so she's got a pretty good donor base set up already.

Well, certainly, but, as we've seen countless times, $600,000 is chump change. Adler will be spending at least $5 million on this race; can Allen really keep up with that (especially when the Republicans will also be defending Ferguson, who has more support from state conservatives)?

Oh, I'm not saying she can run a race on just $600,000, just that she's got a good fundraising base.  I'd expect her to be able to raise exactly what she needs to wage a very competitive race...probably damn near close to $3 million.

I think you're overestimating the amount Adler will be able to raise here.  It's not like Norcross has a vested financial interest in picking up the seat.  I'd guess Adler raises $3 million too.  There won't be a significant fundraising gap here.

And even if there does wind up being a significant gap, it should be noted that Allen's years as an evening news anchor on WCAU (CBS Philly) gives her a tremendous positive name ID advantage.  That's got to be worth at least $1 million in the bank.



(Mike Ferguson already has well over $1 million in the bank—he's a prolific fundraiser, and shouldn't prove to be a distraction to Allen in her race.  They're just not going to be raising it from the same places.  And remember, both parties were more than able to wage two very high profile races in 2000 when Democrats defended Holt and Republicans defended the Franks open seat.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

but what happenes when state sneator bodine challenges adler in the primary/? 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Seriously, though, the district by the numbers is an incredibly tough nut for Adler to crack if Allen is the GOP nominee.

Essentially, the district is comprised of Cherry Hill (Adler's hometown), LD 7 (Allen's district), LD 8, LD 9, and LD 10.  For any Democrat to win here, they need to win Cherry Hill (a given that Adler will carry it in 2008) and win LD 7 to compensate for the strong GOP advantage in District 8, 9, and 10.  And we just saw less than a week ago that no amount of money is going to flip District 8 to favor Democrats...and as you move east into Ocean County, which Bush carried by about 21 points...well, Adler's numbers are only going to get even worse.

Of course Adler will best Allen in LD 6.  Unfortunately for Adler, LD 6 has extremely limited overlap with NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 7?  No, I don't think so, especially considering that the most Democratic areas of LD 7, such as Pennsauken (which Diane Allen failed to carry in 2003 or 2007), aren't even in NJ-03.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 8?  Probably not.  He might be able to keep it close there, but after Norcross flooded the district with money, Haines (R) still won the open State Senate race by over 20 points.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 9?  Definitely not, no way, no chance in hell.  It's the most Republican part of the district, the heart of Ocean County.  Diane Allen would win LD9 by a huge margin.

Can Adler best Allen in LD 10?  Again, no.  It's just more of staunchly Republican Ocean County.

Just putting the numbers together, it's hard to see how Adler wins, especially considering all his built in negatives as a product of the Norcross machine.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't even necessarily that close.

She hasn't been on tv in 10 years, and I don't know how one could tease out the advantages of incumbency in a small part of the CD from what advantages she'd have running in a much larger district. She also looks much different now, to be polite about it.

But the race is about to start, so we'll see soon enough if Allen raises the cash she needs and polls well against Adler. He's certainly got his own structural disadvantages.

Keep in mind, of course, that Diane Allen has gone on Philly TV in 2002 (for her U.S. Senate run), 2003 (for her State Senate run), and probably in 2007.  There's just no way to target only District 7 when running for re-election.

The real benefit Diane Allen has, of course, is as stated above: her legislative district overlaps the most Democratic areas of Saxton's district—a district that already favors a generic Republican.

No part of District 6 has been competitive for years, so Adler simply hasn't been making the same media buys that Allen has.

Have the Democrats successfully caged Susan Bass Levin?

Susan Bass Levin is a non factor.  She's disgraced herself so extensively that she wouldn't even get 1/3 of the vote in a Democratic primary.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Frankly, none of this matters. The numbers you should be looking at are these:
2004 John Kerry: 48% George W. Bush: 51% 
2000 Al Gore: 55% George W. Bush: 45%
The district is poised to go democratic in next years pres election.
Adler will have more money, too. He will also have DCCC support and Norcross.  Even if his LD is barely in this district, that doesn't mean that most of the 48% who voted for Kerry won't be voting for him.
What will Diane Allen have? Not too much. She can't rely on the NJGOP or the NRCC.
Don't get me wrong, if she does run, she will at least get around 47% of the vote and I may even be wrong. She has a great chance at winning either way, but I think Adler has a great edge going in.

Also as for those legislative district results you brought up, let's remember that turnout for those is about 35%. This election will be around 70%+.

Diane Allen has run during Gubernatorial years too, you know, when turnout was much higher than in 2007.

And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results?  Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.

Bob Franks, Doug Forrester ('02 and '05), and Tom Kean Jr. all carried NJ-03 in their statewide runs.  In fact, I think Al Gore is about the only Democrat in recent history to carry the district.

Sorry, as much as you'd like it to be so, John Adler v. Diane Allen is not the matchup that's going to flip that tradition.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

1. The 7th district race in 2000 was much closer than it had any right to be because of Gore's coattails, just as the 1998 race was unreasonably competitive due to revulsion at Monicagate. Ferguson outran Bush, but Bush so far underperformed in that district that he dragged Ferguson down. You have to look at the spread, not just the results.

Closer than it deserved to be?  Mike Ferguson is more conservative than Franks, had a political resume that existed solely of a loss to Pallone, and he didn't even live in the district.  Granted, Mary Anne Connelly wound up being a bad candidate herself, but there is no reason why a nobody like Mike Ferguson should have walked away with that election.

1a. 2000 was a great year for House Republicans everywhere but California and southern Arkansas. You swept the open seats, by and large. The generic ballot for 2008 still looks the way it did in 2006, when Republicans didn't do as well as in 2000.

If 2008 is like 2006, that's terrific news for Allen.  Republicans carried NJ-03 on every level in 2006.

2. Clinton's coattails in 1996 helped Bill Pascrell take out Bill Martini. Having the Republican candidate identified with the regionalist conservatives who dominate the party is the kiss of death in N.J.

Um, okay, Clinton did help knock out Bill Martini.  But Martini FAR outran Dole in the district, whom Clinton absolutely creamed.  Martini's district was more Democratic than Republican, unlike NJ-03.

However, given the potential toxic climate and financial problems northern Republicans will face in 2008, and the strong disconnect between state and federal partisanship (anyone want to promote a MS legislative Democrat for senator?), there is just no way for someone to shut down this discussion by declaring Allen will win and anyone who disagrees just doesn't get it.

Which is why I've given plenty of good reasons why Allen will win.  She's going to win the LD-07 part of the district, the LD-08 part of the district, the LD-09 part of the district, and the LD-10 part of the district.  All politics is local.

2006 was a great year to show that people arent going to send a republican down to washington no matter how dem friendly they are. Also, those gubernatorial elections still have 20% less turnout than pres elections.

Again, like I said, Tom Kean Jr. won NJ-03 in 2006 by around 3 points.  Not exactly the best example for team blue to be using here.

And I don't care how much turnout is up in a Presidential year, Diane Allen will still carry the LD-07 part of her district.  It's not like her margins there are razor thin.

Clinton carried it twice handily. 

Which is why I said recent history.  Things have changed quite a bit politically since 1992.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It sounds like if the Republicans can successfully convince voters that Sen. Adler is from Jersey City and will go to Congress to funnel money to North Jersey, the same dynamic that has come into play in all of those other elections will sweep Diane Allen into office.

In NJ-03, replace "Jersey City" with "Camden," and you've got your strategy.  And considering Adler's obvious and inescapable ties to Norcross, it's certainly not far off!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If your rating isn't somewhere between (Toss Up / Leans Rep) and Leans Rep  to somewhere going down to the dem side, then we all know you have no idea what your talking about, no matter how long a list of information, albeit irrelevent, you write.
If Diane Allen is the challenger, for my prediction, I'd say it's between Toss up and (toss up / leans dem) for all of the obvious reasons.

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

And surely, I have no idea what I'm talking about.  We should all listen to you instead, who said that the Haines/Bodine race would be highly competitive and that Jen Beck was a goner.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Maybe you shouldn't make stuff up. Because I said Jen Beck was going to win and the last time I mentioned the Bodine race was months ago. Anyway, you've consistently shown that you either weren't a political reporter or just a really bad one.

So, what exactly is the deal with you obsessing over my being a political reporter?  Every time you get partisanly flustered, you seem to bring it up (as an insult, of course).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I looked up what I said about Bodine. I said he had a shot, which he did and almost all political reporters agreed with that. I never predicted a win, I said he had a shot which you dismissed off the bat.

Not to rub it in or anything, but most candidates with a "shot" don't lose a supposedly competitive race by 23 points after outspending their opponent by two to one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

David Norcross would be an excellent candidate for the GOP. However, he lacks the name ID (although he does have that last name) that candidates like Allen have.

I don't know about that.  A candidate who ran for the U.S. Senate in 1976 doesn't strike me as the best choice to hold NJ-03 thirty-two years later.

If I'm running the NJ GOP, I'm putting all my weight behind Allen.  And if she passes, I've got to go to Chris Connors as the second best.

I've read that Ocean County's and BurlCo's GOP Chairmen have other people in mind such as BurlCo Freeholder Aubrey Fenton and OC wants someone from there. OC Freeholder John Kelly apparently wants in, too.

It can be a free for all for the GOP while the dems are solidly behind Adler.

Right, though the question is whether or not someone like Aubrey Fenton or one of the Ocean County freeholders would be able to raise money for a serious Primary challenge when the NRCC clearly prefers Allen.

For Allen to be defeated in a GOP primary, I think that it needs to be a two-man race, and that other man has to be a heavy hitter from Ocean County like Senator Connors or Assemblyman Rumpf.  For conservatives, Connors would easily be the best choice.  Maybe Norcross, if he can get big money for the Primary run, though he probably has the wrong last name to be running as a Republican in South Jersey. 

And the Burl Co. GOP feud needs to continue through June 2008 to ensure Allen's margins in the county are weakened.  (Essentially, the new GOP chair of Burlington needs to deny Allen the line.)  She got 72% of the vote in Burlington County in the three-way GOP primary for U.S. Senate, with a 10,000+ vote margin over Forrester.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

Ok. I think the reason this thread has gotten so involved is because I would have described your view as Likely Rep from the way you fleshed out the scenarios.

I don't agree with your assessment, but I don't think it's an unreasonable approach to the race.

While I strongly doubt that Adler will actually win, it's hard to put the race, in good conscience, any higher for the GOP than Toss Up/Lean Rep this far out from the election.  Once I know more about the national mood in 2008 and the GOP Presidential nominee, I'll have a much firmer grip on the race.

I'm very certain Adler will lose by at least a point, but I can't very well call a one point win "Likely Republican," can I?

It's like my prediction for this year's State Senate race in District 8.  I knew there was virtually no way for Bodine to win, but you can't call the race "Safe Haines" when Bodine could have come within 5 of winning.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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http://politickernj.com/defense-contractor-could-be-saxtons-handpicked-successor-14302

Huh? Are the Republicans trying to lose this seat? Why would Saxton nudge Allen, ostensibly the most electable moderate, out of the race in favor of an unknown defense contractor? First, Saxton allocates fed dollars for Lockheed Martin, and then he tries to turn his House seat over to a Lockheed employee?  Anybody smell quid pro quo? If Saxton is hired as a defense lobbyist, we'll know that a deal was in the works.

Why would he endorse a liberal?

I'm pretty sure Saxton was there at the Diane Allen for U.S. Senate victory party in 2002...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

I'm not sure that there are any strong challengers from Ocean still considering bids if Chris Conners isn't running.  I put little stock in the freeholders, but perhaps one of the Assemblycritters could make this a two or three point race.

I'd expect the race to get blisteringly negative now.  (Much more so than the race in NJ-07.  If Lance wins the nod, I'd expect NJ-07 to be unusually civil.  He's lucky that Ferguson drove up Stender's negatives for him.)

Republicans in NJ-03 definitely need Giuliani on the ticket now.  If he's winning the district, Republicans still have a shot here.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Diane Allen is not running.

http://politickernj.com/allen-drops-bid-congress-14353

I was surprised.  I guess this seat leans Democrat now.

I don't know whether this is good or bad for Adler. While Allen is fairly popular, the possibility that the next R candidate comes from Ocean is troubling. On the other hand, a less known challenger even being from Ocean might not be so bad.

I'm not sure that there are any strong challengers from Ocean still considering bids if Chris Conners isn't running.  I put little stock in the freeholders, but perhaps one of the Assemblycritters could make this a two or three point race.

I'd expect the race to get blisteringly negative now.  (Much more so than the race in NJ-07.  If Lance wins the nod, I'd expect NJ-07 to be unusually civil.  He's lucky that Ferguson drove up Stender's negatives for him.)

Republicans in NJ-03 definitely need Giuliani on the ticket now.  If he's winning the district, Republicans still have a shot here.

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

It's looking less and less likely that Romney will be the nominee.  Dude is in a freefall in Iowa.

Still, if Huckabee is the beneficiary of that, I'm not sure he's a better fit for NJ-03 than Romney.  (Huckabee'll still win huge in Ocean County, of course.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This I've never understood: If Romney is slick enough to win the Primary Election, what makes you think he's going to be so easy and effortless to beat in the General Election?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This I've never understood: If Romney is slick enough to win the Primary Election, what makes you think he's going to be so easy and effortless to beat in the General Election?

Because he polls horribly in the GE?

So did Al Gore at first.

Romney's not trying to win a GE right now.  He's trying to win a PE.  He's given Independents and Democrats absolutely no reason to vote for him because that's largely incompatible with winning a GOP primary with skeptical conservative credentials, so yeah, dude's gonna poll terribly on a GE ballot.

I'm no Romney fan to say the least, but I don't think the assumptions of Romney being completely and totally blown out are especially realistic.  I don't think he'll win, but I don't think he'll lose in a landslide, either.