NM Senate Rumors: Udall is In

[TheresNoMoney]

Santa Fe source: “What I think will probably happen is that Udall polling will come out showing him way ahead. He’s not reconsidering, he’s in. The reason he’s reconsidering — Tom’s unusual, he’s kind and gentle — and tenacious, too. He’s trying to give Marty a face-saving way to get out, but if he doesn’t I fully believe he’s prepared to get in and crush him.

http://draftudall.com/?p=32

"There's no doubt that Democrats are hoping to clear the primary field for Tom Udall, who by all indications has decided to run for Senate (he's started hiring campaign staff)."

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/11/9/135246/617

[Ogre Mage]

This is very good news.  I hope Chavez will step aside.

[Padfoot]

Chavez really wants the Gov mansion anyways right?  Although he'll face just as grueling of a primary there as well.

[Ogre Mage]

Perhaps Chavez could be convinced to run for one of the 3 open Congressional seats if the DCCC promises support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Although he'll face just as grueling of a primary there as well.

No. A much harder one. Which is why he's running for Senate.

[they don't love you like i love you]

They need to talk Chavez into running for NM-1

[The Mikado]

Assuming this is true, it's excellent news.

[Tender Branson]

Assuming this is true, it's excellent news.

Confirmation:

Udall to run for Domenici’s Senate seat

Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) will run for the Senate seat being vacated by New Mexico Republican Pete Domenici, the Associated Press reported on Saturday, citing the congressman’s chief of staff.

The move has thrown all three of New Mexico’s congressional seats into play, as the state’s other two congressmen, Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, are also giving up their House seats to vie for the GOP nomination in the Senate race.

Udall had declined at first to run for the seat, but changed his mind. He will face off against Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez and other, lesser-known Democrats in the primary.

Domenici recently announced that he would step down at the end of his term because of a terminal illness.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/udall-to-run-for-domenicis-senate-seat-2007-11-10.html

So, this means 4 likely Democratic pickups: NM, VA, NH and (likely) CO as well

[Person Man]

How are you gentlemen? All your NEW MEXICO are belong to us! You have no chance to survive. Make your time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, this means 4 likely Democratic pickups: NM, VA, NH and (likely) CO as well

Don't make the mistake of assuming that New Mexico is at all electorally normal.

[Sam Spade]

So, this means 4 likely Democratic pickups: NM, VA, NH and (likely) CO as well

Don't make the mistake of assuming that New Mexico is at all electorally normal.

^^^^^^^^^^  X100

[MarkWarner08]

So, this means 4 likely Democratic pickups: NM, VA, NH and (likely) CO as well

Don't make the mistake of assuming that New Mexico is at all electorally normal.

^^^^^^^^^^  X100

Am I the only forum member who thinks Pearce, yes, the supposedly extreme Congressman from the 2nd CD, is actually a stronger general election candidate than Heather Wilson? Pearce enjoys the advantages of personal wealth, a relatively scandal free past, and an energetic and well-organized political base. A Udall vs. Wilson matchup would not motivate the conservative voters who fuel the GOP's grassroots operations.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Am I the only forum member who thinks Pearce, yes, the supposedly extreme Congressman from the 2nd CD, is actually a stronger general election candidate than Heather Wilson? Pearce enjoys the advantages of personal wealth, a relatively scandal free past, and an energetic and well-organized political base. A Udall vs. Wilson matchup would not motivate the conservative voters who fuel the GOP's grassroots operations.

Of course Pearce is a better candidate.  Heather Wilson probably wouldn't have been able to win NM-01 in a re-election campaign, and now she's running for Senate?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Pearce is a better candidate, but only because of the US Attorneys firing scandal.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Anyway, if Chavez is smart, he'll got for the NM-1 House seat. Apparently he believes this could be last chance to make a run for statewide office. However, let's look at the facts. If he stays in and loses the primary to Udall, he's finished (same if he wins the primary and loses the general). He could never win the Gubernatorial primary in 2 years. However, he could win NM-1, hold it for awhile, and then make a run for Senate once Bingaman retires or Governor further down the road. NM-1 is easily the best bet for him.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Pearce is a better candidate, but only because of the US Attorneys firing scandal.

Exactly.

[Sam Spade]

Anyway, if Chavez is smart, he'll got for the NM-1 House seat. Apparently he believes this could be last chance to make a run for statewide office. However, let's look at the facts. If he stays in and loses the primary to Udall, he's finished (same if he wins the primary and loses the general). He could never win the Gubernatorial primary in 2 years. However, he could win NM-1, hold it for awhile, and then make a run for Senate once Bingaman retires or Governor further down the road. NM-1 is easily the best bet for him.

Too bad he's not interested in NM-01.  And if he lost NM-01 (which btw is a distinct possibility), he'd really be dead meat.  His actions the day of the Udall announcement indicate to me he's clearly in this one.  Udall is the favorite at this point and Chavez has his problems with Democrats, but NM is the home of weird political happenings, so we'll see...

[Sam Spade]

So, this means 4 likely Democratic pickups: NM, VA, NH and (likely) CO as well

Don't make the mistake of assuming that New Mexico is at all electorally normal.

^^^^^^^^^^  X100

Am I the only forum member who thinks Pearce, yes, the supposedly extreme Congressman from the 2nd CD, is actually a stronger general election candidate than Heather Wilson? Pearce enjoys the advantages of personal wealth, a relatively scandal free past, and an energetic and well-organized political base. A Udall vs. Wilson matchup would not motivate the conservative voters who fuel the GOP's grassroots operations.

Pearce well could be a stronger opponent, but it is far too early to tell.  Wilson has stronger name recognition than Pearce and Udall should have much strong name recognition than both of them.

I'm not one of those who believes that the attorney's scandal will really be that important or weakening of an effect on Wilson.  It hurt Domenici a lot more than Wilson, mainly because he didn't handle it as adeptly, but also because he was higher up on the totem pole, so to speak.  Granted, Udall may be one of the few NM Dems who can actually bring up ethical problems as an issue without bringing up too many skeletons in the closet, but I suspect that race would be fought differently.

Oh, and regardless of what Mr. Moderate says , Wilson would have been favored against any of the NM-01 challengers presently in the race.  They aren't exactly the "cream of the crop", so to speak, and 2006 is not 2008.

The odd thing (well, there are many odd things) about New Mexico is that the GOP conservative base is actually located in Wilson's CD.  Although the South typically votes more Republican, the voters there tend to be conservative Dems and Indys, not Republicans.  Remember, as any self-respecting NM political analyst will tell you - at least 40% of the GOP primary vote will come from Bernahillo County.  Wilson's problem would be with the conservative Dems and Indys in the South, not with the GOP base.  Pearce's problem is clearer, it would be with ABQ Dems and Indys.

The one other thing I know about Wilson that's not germane to the conversation right now, but could be later, is that historically in NM-01, she always had the tendency of underpolling by about 2%-4%.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/6841.html

This primary is going to be fun.  Actually, both party primaries are going to be fun.  For those who have never witnessed New Mexico party politics in action, it'll be a great learning experience for those people who think that everything can be fit into a nice little box.

The money quote from Marty Chavez in this article (and I'm sure he's going to provide us many more before it's all said and done)

“You take a tough-charging mayor against a congressman who is not known for having done anything. He’s never had the occasion to make tough decisions to offend people. You’re polling at the peak of his popularity. He’ll find that lead will evaporate like wet tissue paper.”

[TheresNoMoney]

Chavez would have a better chance of winning the Republican primary.