The polls seem to suggest that it did, NJ has a large number of undecided until the end of the election that typically break hard Democrat at the end (much larger than 9%), if they broke less hard than usual (which they broke harder than usual for the Dems), Kean would have won
You're right, Foley was a factor. It moved 10% of the voters from Republican to Democratic. However, after Foley but before Election Day, New Jersey's supreme court legalized gay marriage. That moved 10% of voters from Democratic to Republican. If not for that, Kean would have lost by 19 points.
