LBJ for the USA

[Хahar 🤔]

This timeline is based on the premise that Johnson ran for president in 1968.

Johnson originally planned to withdraw from the race, but two days before his speech, he is talked into running by the First Lady. Thus, on March 31, 1968, Johnson makes a speech in which he reaffirms his "commitment to the security of the people of Vietnam, America, and the world." He concludes, "Thus, it is imperative that I seek the nomination for Persident of the United States of America, to save our great country from Communist aggression." His speech is recieved poorly by the anti-war Democrats, but his approval jumps among the pro-war Democrats. As the race goes on, McCarthy, Johnson, and Kennedy are about even. On June 5, the pivotal CA primary takes place:

Kennedy: 32%
Johnson: 31%
McCarthy: 25%
Wallace: 3%
Other: 5%

However, while celebrating his victory, Kennedy is shot by a Palestinian immigrant named Sirhan Sirhan. He dies the next day. Much of the Kennedy support swings to McCarthy, and the New York primary goes down like this:

McCarthy: 48%
Johnson: 37%
Wallace: 7%
Other: 8%

McCarthy clearly has the lead in the polls, but the his chances at the convention are slim. On August 22, three days before the convention, he gets George McGovern to drop out of the race and endorse him, unifying the anti-war base. The next day, Hubert Humphrey officially endorses Johnson.

NEXT...The 1968 Democratic National Convention

[True Democrat]

The next day, Hubert Humphrey officially endorses Nixon.

Umm. . .what?

[Хahar 🤔]

The next day, Hubert Humphrey officially endorses Nixon.

Umm. . .what?

Oops. I meant Johnson.

You'll probably be seeing a lot more of these mix-ups.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Why not have a dem split between dixiecrats, establishment dems and the left?

[Хahar 🤔]

Why not have a dem split between dixiecrats, establishment dems and the left?

Any answer to that would be a spoiler.

[Хahar 🤔]

On August 26, 1968, the Democratic Party convenes in Chicago. On national television, thousands of antiwar protseters are brutally beaten by police. McCarthy issues a terse statement that states his "solidarity with the young men and women that have been the victims of police violence". This is the largest open sign of discord among the Northern Democarts yet. Nevertheless, the voting proceeds normally, with Johnson winning on the first ballot:

Johnson: 1432
McCarthy: 846
Humphrey: 212.5
McGovern: 36
Ted Kennedy: 14.25
Scattered: 81.25

Humphrey, who has spent 1968 trying not to offend anyone, easily gets the VP nomination.

On the 29th, the last day of the convention, DNC Chairman John M. Bailey allows Wallace to speak in primetime. Wallace delivers a stunning speech lambasting the Democratic organization and Mayor of Chicago Richard Daley. He vows to run with or without the Democratic support, to prolonged applause and a standing ovation. Bailey seems visibly horrified, but it is remembered that Bailey was one of the most prominent supporters of John F. Kennedy. Conspiracy theories abound.

Meanwhile, from the Governor's mansion in Montgomery, Geroge Wallace is watching the events eagerly. The Democratic Party is cracking, and he may well be the one that picks up the pieces.

NEXT...A 4-way race

Note: I originally called Wallace "Humphrey" throughout this thread. I'm a fuddy-duddy.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This is really, really good.

[True Democrat]

Wallace was running long before the Democratic convention, IIRC.

[Хahar 🤔]

Wallace was running long before the Democratic convention, IIRC.

You are absolutely correct. However, at the convention in this timeline, he vows to run with or without Democratic support. In real life, though he ran on several tickets, he was not a major candidate.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Republican presidential race proceeds much the same as in real life, with Nixon choosing Agnew as his running mate. However, Johnson and Nixon push the buttons of the other two candidates by scheduling a debate without them. Wallace publicizes his exclusion throughout the South, to the detriment of Johnson and Nixon. As his running mate, Wallace has chosen retired general Curtis LeMay, while McCarthy chooses McGovern.

In a poll taken in early October, the results are as follows:

Nixon/Agnew: 31%
Johnson/Humphrey: 27%
McCarthy/McGovern: 26%
Wallace/LeMay: 16%

However, while McCarthy and Wallace have concentrated support (in big cities and college towns, and in the rural South, respectively), the Nixon and Johnson bases are more spread out. This is expected to hurt Johnson especially, much like it hurt the Progressive Conservatives in the Canada 1993 election in RL.

Unless Nixon manages to win a majority, the election will clearly go to the House, so the House elections are paid an unusual amount of attention to for a presidential year. The Republicans seize upon this aspect. They echoed their 1924 slogan:

A vote for Davis is a vote for Bryan.
A vote for La Follette is a vote for Bryan.
A vote for Coolidge is a vote for Coolidge.

In 1968, their battle cry was, "Vote for Johnson and vote for McGovern!" The meaning of this was that if the House deadlocked past Inauguration Day in choosing the new President, as was quite possible, then McGovern could well become Acting President, given the large Democratic Senate majority.

This is the political atmosphere before the most divided election since 1824.

NEXT...Elections!

[gorkay]

I don't see LBJ having a chance in this scenario, as the normal Democratic vote is split three ways. The liberals and anti-war extremists go for McCarthy, the more moderate anti-war voters choose either Johnson or Nixon, and the right-wingers and segregationists go for Wallace. But then again, Truman was facing a similar situation in 1948, wasn't he?

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't see LBJ having a chance in this scenario, as the normal Democratic vote is split three ways. The liberals and anti-war extremists go for McCarthy, the more moderate anti-war voters choose either Johnson or Nixon, and the right-wingers and segregationists go for Wallace. But then again, Truman was facing a similar situation in 1948, wasn't he?

Yes, though far less so.

[Хahar 🤔]

Note: Sorry for the small size of the images. The EC doesn't support 4 parties, so I had to make these wih Paint.

As the calendar stops on November 5, 1968, so does the nation. The 1968 presidential elections are probably the most talked-about (and most wide open) ever.

Pundits predict that if Nixon fails to gain a majority, the election will go to the House. The House will probably retain a large Democratic majority, but the Democrats are so different from one another, it is really anyone's game. Wallace may well be kingmaker. Since anyone with any brains could have figured that out themselves, this only goes to show how worthless pundits are.

In the evening, the first results come in:


Big image: http://img116.imageshack.us/my.php?image=19681og8.png

Nixon/Agnew: 77
McCarthy/McGovern: 64
Johnson/Humphrey: 46
Wallace/LeMay: 33

McCarthy's victory in NY is the biggest news.

As the returns from the Midwest and Mississippi Valley come:


Big image: http://img103.imageshack.us/my.php?image=19681zu3.png

Nixon/Agnew: 160
McCarthy/McGovern: 91
Wallace/LeMay: 77
Johnson/Humphrey: 58

Nixon's chances at an outright majority look very good.

Everything but the West Coast:


Big image: http://img225.imageshack.us/my.php?image=19681eo2.png

Nixon/Agnew: 214
McCarthy/McGovern: 91
Johnson/Humphrey: 87
Wallace/LeMay: 77

Johnson wins the 25 pivotal Texas votes. With 69 votes still in play, Nixon needs 56. He can get this if he takes every remaining state except WA and HI.

The final totals:


Big image: http://img209.imageshack.us/my.php?image=19681ip8.png

Nixon/Agnew: 270
McCarthy/McGovern: 100
Johnson/Humphrey: 91
Wallace/LeMay: 77

Nixon ekes out a victory by the slimmest of margins.

NEXT...A not-so-lame duck

[gorkay]

Yow. That was a close one! So how did the Congressional elections turn out?

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm covering that in my next post.

[Хahar 🤔]

As the New Year rolls around, the Electors convene in their respective state capitals. However, one elector from Florida, pledged to Nixon and Agnew, instead votes for Wallace and LeMay. Nixon is deprived of a majority, and the election will go to the House (which is the same as in RL, with mostly Johnson Democrats). Wallace is jubilant—he may get to play kingmaker. Meanwhile, Nixon is downcast, but not surprised—there had been faithless electors in 1956 and 1960.

Since the House can only vote for one of the top three candidates, Wallace meets with both Johnson and Nixon. When Johnson agrees to veto any civil-rights legislation, Wallace instructs his voters to vote for Johnson.

So, the first round of voting in the House goes like this:

Nixon: 20
Johnson: 18
McCarthy: 7
Deadlocked: 5

Nixon holds a slim lead. However, he needs at least 26 states to go to him to win. Normally, the McCarthy delegation would be the best way to get the votes, but McCarthy has already indicated that he would not bargain with Nixon, and will not deal with Johnson, either, due to the deal with Wallace.

In the Senate, voting is between the top two VP candidates—McGovern and Agnew. Though some of the Southern Democrats flock to Agnew, the liberal Republicans agree that McGovern would be a much better choice, and George McGovern is elected Vice President of the United States, 55-45.

That night, Johnson, who realizes that Nixon is fairly close to him ideologically, begins negotiations with Nixon. Finally, at 4:15 AM, they reach a deal, and Johnson instructs his voters to swing to Nixon. The terms of the deal are not disclosed.

So, the second and final round of voting takes place as follows:

Nixon: 38
McCarthy: 7
Deadlocked: 5

Richard Nixon becomes President of the United States of America.

NEXT...McCarthy reacts

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Very cool

[Хahar 🤔]

The day after the election of Nixon, a bitter McCarthy makes his concession speech.

"Yesterday, the rectionary forces of America struck a crooked deal to make Richard Nixon the President...
"The House has given its stamp of approval on the deaths of millions of young Americans and Vietnamese. The Democratic Party will not stand for this. I will continue the fight in the Senate, George McGovern will continue the fight in the Vice Presidency, and we will be backin 1972.
"So, good night, God bless America, and remember Chicago."

This speech, combined with McCarthy's refusal to congratulate Nixon, kept him and the Peace Democrats in the spotlight (which was exactly what he wanted). The last two words would come to define McCarthyism (as the liberal movement came to be called) for years.

NEXT...The Nixon Administration

[Хahar 🤔]

I hope that this timeline continues through the 1972 election and on, it is good.

It sure will.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

When will we see this updated again?

[Хahar 🤔]

They'll be coming, I've been busy with Mock Parliament.

[Хahar 🤔]

In his inaugaration speech, Nixon reaches out to the Johnson Democrats, saying "America is badly divided. Today, I stand before you proclaiming that I believe tat the Republican Party can overcome traditional differences to do it." Thus starts New Republicanism, turning the Republican Party into an avowedly centrist one. Dozens of Senators and Representatives buck the Democrats for the Republicans, and Nixon's approval ratings soar.

NEXT...Midterm elections

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I like where this is heading, especially for the centrist Republican Party. A very interesting TL.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

A centrist GOP is going to be difficult to create, I look forward to seeing how you do it.

[Reluctant Republican]

Good timeline, I wonder If Nixon will have any better luck here then he did in our history.