regarding new jersey...

[GPORTER]

If the tickets are Giuliani/Thompson vs. Clinton/Vilsack, will Giuliani carry New Jersey? Why or why not?

[Smash255]

No.  NJ is too democratic of a state, Rudy's position on the war severely limits any appeal his social views have compared to other Republicans.  Bush's 04 totals in NJ which was bumped due to 9/11 is the best case scenario for Rudy.

[Aizen]

No, NJ isn't going to go GOP. I'm not even remotely concerned about NJ.

[bullmoose88]

Giuliani has a shot, but he's still an underdog there.

As is the case with any republican running state wide there.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If the tickets are Giuliani/Thompson vs. Clinton/Vilsack, will Giuliani carry New Jersey? Why or why not?

You seem to have an obsession with the GOP being able to win anywhere in New England.  It will NOT happen!  The GOP has no chance anywhere north of Virginia.

[phk]

Bush 2004 results are the absolute best the GOP can hope for in 2008.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Giuliani has a slim shot, but he probably won't win. He would have won in, say, 2004, but he won't win in 2008.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Giuliani has a slim shot, but he probably won't win. He would have won in, say, 2004, but he won't win in 2008.

This only applies to Giuliani, NJ will be more Republican friendly in 2008, but it looks like 2012 or 16 is more realistic

[Beet]

If it's Giuliani vs Edwards New Jersey will be a swing state.

[Smash255]

Giuliani has a slim shot, but he probably won't win. He would have won in, say, 2004, but he won't win in 2008.

This only applies to Giuliani, NJ will be more Republican friendly in 2008, but it looks like 2012 or 16 is more realistic

No it won't, Rudy's asinine Iraq, Iran and foreign policy views destroy any chance.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Guiliani can keep the race close, and he'll probably have to sink money in the state to make up for likely losses in the competitive south, but I honestly don't think there's any real scenario where Rudy wins the state.

[HardRCafé]

The only way he wins New Jersey is if he wins comfortably nationally.  He wins New Hampshire and keeps Connecticut and New Jersey close, but they are too Democrat to make a difference in his favor.

[CPT MikeyMike]

The only way he wins New Jersey is if he wins comfortably nationally.  He wins New Hampshire and keeps Connecticut and New Jersey close, but they are too Democrat to make a difference in his favor.

CT and NJ would only be winnable if Pennsylvania goes GOP and I don't think it will.

My New Jersey prediction.

Clinton: 52%
Giuliani: 46%

[minionofmidas]

New Jersey and Connecticut are the two states where I'd expect the smallest anti-GOP swing compared to 2004 if Giuliani is the 2008 nominee. But the GOP's chance to win even a single state it didn't win in 2004 is fairly minimal.

[Verily]

Clinton is as popular in New Jersey as she is in New York. Giuliani has local popularity as well, but the difference between the two is not significant enough to account for any swing either way. In Connecticut, the situation is somewhat different, and I think Clinton is less popular, but Connecticut is also more Democratic than New Jersey.