who do you THINK will win the Republican nomination?

[The Duke]

If I had to bet on who wins, I'd say this:

Huckabee's rise in Iowa is like McCain's New Hampshire rise in 2000.  It seems to come late and out of nowhere, but for people who understand these states its not a huge shock.  Huckabee was born to do well in the state that almost voted for Pat Robertson in 1988.  Huckabee wins Iowa.

This event shocks the Romney campaign.  It goes down in flames.  Giuliani wins New Hampshire.

With Romney out, Giuliani wins Michigan.

Four days later, Giuliani wins Nevada and Huckabee wins South Carolina.

Then Giuliani wins Florida.

Giuliani rolls on Uber Tuesday.

[gorkay]

Romney seems to be the favorite at the moment, not so much because of anything he has done to establish himself as such, but because Giuliani's campaign is leaking serious oil. I might even go as far as putting Huckabee ahead of him now. But it's still pretty early.

[Eraserhead]

Mr. Mitt - pretty confident at this  point in time - but we'll see what Huckabee does - he could put up a good fight against Romney.

Either way you will be happy.

No, b/c I don't see Huck winning the General.

I think he would actually have a better shot than Romney.

[Lunar]

1 out of 48 voters correctly guessed John McCain

amazing how dead he was perceived at this point

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I went with Rudy

[J. J.]

I would not have predicted McCain and was considering basically sitting out the campaign.

[Tyrion The Unbanned]

this is hilarious

[DownWithTheLeft]

This shows maybe we should just pick however leads in mid-2010

[© tweed]

This shows maybe we should just pick however leads in mid-2010

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65368.0

[Erc]

Still Rudy, and personally I'm more sure of my vote this month than last month, where I nearly switched over to Romney.

Personally, I think that Huck helps Giuliani out.  If Romney is still competitive in IA but loses, I think he gets the major hit in NH, not Rudy.  Michigan being returned to the 15th also helps Rudy out, as, if Romney takes a hit from IA (and even further, NH), Rudy can take MI and put himself in a very good position to hold through Super Tuesday.  Even should he lose SC, he's got FL in the bag, still.

Essentially, Huck decreases Romney's chances more than Giuliani's chances, without Huck passing Giuliani himself.

If you replace "Rudy" with "McCain" everywhere, this isn't too bad...

[Sam Spade]

Got this one wrong, as I have many.

Two things this idiot (me) nailed in the R primary were:

1) Romney's continued inability to get over 30% anywhere showed a ceiling from which he could not overcome.
2) I said McCain was far from dead in October and from October-December, placed him about the same as Romney and nailed his surge (specifically that it would lead to a NH victory) the moment I saw it in the polling numbers (about 2nd week of December, I think).

Wish I could find those posts, but I'm not wasting that much of my life. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

While I did write off McCain, I am glad for my constant insistence that Giuliani had no chance at the nomination. I never voted for him in any of these polls.

[TomC]

1 out of 48 voters correctly guessed John McCain

McCain's bolded in my poll results.

[MasterJedi]

Oh, if only.

Then you would have lost Missouri and possibly Arizona and lost by more in all other states Obama won.

[Matt Damon™]

Why? Wouldn't someone whose more of a genuine centrist like Romney be more able to play the moderate card?

[Countess Anya of the North Parish]

Mike Huckabee. He still has this thing about him. When you look at him you think he can really get his thoughts heard. If he is nominated i will be happy. I enjoy listening to him.

[Matt Damon™]

My guess is the map with Romney winning the nod but we still get the economic crash. Obama does worse in the west but is able to grab Missouri.

[Lunar]

Dawg, Obama would never do worse in New Mexico than Colorado

1 out of 48 voters correctly guessed John McCain

McCain's bolded in my poll results.

RESPEK

MAD RESPEK

[Meeker]

Especially considering Colorado's large Mormon population.

[Mr. Morden]

Especially considering Colorado's large Mormon population.

Colorado has a large Mormon population?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Especially considering Colorado's large Mormon population.

Colorado has a large Mormon population?

Sarcasm. J. J.-mocking sarcasm.

[pragmatic liberal]

My guess is the map with Romney winning the nod but we still get the economic crash. Obama does worse in the west but is able to grab Missouri.

Obama won Nevada by 12 points. He won New Mexico by 15 points. There's no way in hell Romney would have carried those states given that kind of Democratic lean this cycle.

And Romney's opportunistic immigrant-demagoguery would not have improved on McCain's shockingly dismal performance among Hispanics in those states. There aren't enough "energized" Mormons to overcome those kinds of pro-Dem immigrant margins.

[pragmatic liberal]

I actually wonder whether Romney would have done a couple points better than McCain in the popular vote but actually lost slightly bigger in the Electoral Vote.

Romney may have done better in the industrial Midwest, esp. Michigan, and in parts of the Northeast. He would not have picked Sarah Palin, either. And the economic crisis would probably have given him a decent issue to export.

Yes, Romney's early numbers were always terrible, but most of those voters would have come and I think it's fairly likely the final margin would probably have been between 5-10 points, not too far off from McCain.

Provided turnout in the South didn't dip too much, Romney may well have come slightly closer to Obama in the popular vote, but his gains may have come in already-blue states or states that would have gone to Obama anyway. In contrast, he might well have done sufficiently worse in states like Missouri and Georgia, with large evangelical contingents, that he might have lost them. He may have lost Arizona, too, which Obama almost certainly would have contested had it not been McCain's home state.

Of course, this is dependent upon Romney running a decent campaign, and his primary campaign doesn't inspire much confidence he would have.