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Author Topic: UK Opinion Polls Thread  (Read 61504 times)
Phony Moderate
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« Reply #400 on: January 28, 2011, 05:46:05 pm »
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"Which foreign leader would you most like to see lead the UK?"

Obama - 21%
Merkel - 16%
Gillard - 13%

http://today.yougov.co.uk/politics/obama-brits%E2%80%99-favourite-lead
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« Reply #401 on: January 28, 2011, 07:48:49 pm »
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Gillard - 13%

LOL, please no
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« Reply #402 on: January 29, 2011, 06:36:27 pm »
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Angus Reid (joke pollster, but whatever) shows "The Coalition" tied with Labour - the first time any company has done so.

43 (+2)
32 (-1)
11 (-1)

The Tory figure is why there isn't an election on the horizon, the Liberal % doesn't matter. This would also mean that Labour would win against a "National government" ticket, right? (If this result was to play out, of course.)
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« Reply #403 on: January 29, 2011, 07:08:14 pm »
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Curious. When Gallup destroyed their credibility here, they stopped working here. Angus Reid seem to have adopted a different approach.
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« Reply #404 on: January 29, 2011, 08:22:24 pm »
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Curious. When Gallup destroyed their credibility here, they stopped working here. Angus Reid seem to have adopted a different approach.

To be fair to them, they're picking up what every othe firm is: Liberal hemorrhaging has slowed, the Tories have started to fall - both to Labour's joy.
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« Reply #405 on: January 29, 2011, 08:34:11 pm »

Actually the polls aren't picking up anything at all Tongue
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #406 on: January 31, 2011, 06:51:33 am »
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http://www.nextleft.org/2011/01/cameron-no-longer-more-centrist-than.html
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« Reply #407 on: January 31, 2011, 07:21:07 am »
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Interesting. I suppose the "voters" columns are the self-placements of voters, while the other columns are aggregate placements by voters of all parties? Would be interesting to see party's and leader's placements by party support.
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« Reply #408 on: January 31, 2011, 07:40:36 am »
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Interesting. I suppose the "voters" columns are the self-placements of voters, while the other columns are aggregate placements by voters of all parties? Would be interesting to see party's and leader's placements by party support.

Yeah, that's right. As for the rest... http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Prospect-Left-Right-310111.pdf

Though YouGov's internals are often seriously screwy because of the way they do polls.
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« Reply #409 on: February 01, 2011, 11:45:11 am »
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Last night's ComRes:

43 (+1)
34 (nc)
10 (-2)

I'm still finding it hard to believe that Cleggmania was actually a thing.
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« Reply #410 on: February 01, 2011, 12:23:11 pm »
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YouGov (Jan. 31)

Lab - 42 (-2)
Con - 40 (+2)
Lib - 8 (nc)
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« Reply #411 on: February 01, 2011, 01:08:23 pm »
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So just how screwed are the LibDems.... UKPollingReport's swingometer doesn't really give an accurate prediction when you throw in 'extreme' scenarios like LibDems falling to 8%.  I'd have to imagine that if an election were held today that LD's share of seats would fall through the floor.
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« Reply #412 on: February 01, 2011, 01:22:42 pm »
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So just how screwed are the LibDems.... UKPollingReport's swingometer doesn't really give an accurate prediction when you throw in 'extreme' scenarios like LibDems falling to 8%.  I'd have to imagine that if an election were held today that LD's share of seats would fall through the floor.

18 seats would be a blessing for them, if there was an election today. Presumably, they'll get a drubbing at the assembly elections in May (I saw one prediction the other day pegging them at 1 seat in Wales) and they'll probably lose some big councils like Sheffield and see further loses on councils they lost big on in 2010 (i.e. Liverpool).

Depending on how much you pay attention to swingometers though, the lower the Conservatives go, the better it is for the Liberals in terms of seats. They'd go from oblivion to the edge of oblivion if the Conservatives polled say 32%, as opposed to 40% at the next election.

There's also the matter in seats like Eastleigh and Berwick-upon-Tweed of how badly Labour tactical voters coming back to the party will harm the Liberals and if this can be made up by Tories voting more tactically in the north than they normally do. There's also the possibility of many personal votes being harmed (see Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam and Simon Hughes in Bermondsey).
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« Reply #413 on: February 01, 2011, 01:34:21 pm »
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fwiw (which is ridiculously little), feeding the last two polls here into a swingometer gives respectively

Labour 375, Con 232, LD 19, other 23

and

Labour 335, Con 282, LD 8, other 24

The 8 LD seats would be Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion, Norfolk North, Twickenham, Bath, and Yeovil.
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« Reply #414 on: February 01, 2011, 01:44:29 pm »
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fwiw (which is ridiculously little), feeding the last two polls here into a swingometer gives respectively

Labour 375, Con 232, LD 19, other 23

and

Labour 335, Con 282, LD 8, other 24

The 8 LD seats would be Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion, Norfolk North, Twickenham, Bath, and Yeovil.


A Farron/Laws leadership election would be fun.
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« Reply #415 on: February 01, 2011, 01:46:31 pm »
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I like the one seat the others are losing to Labour in the first scenario compared to the second.

Gordon.
That's right. Lol.
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« Reply #416 on: February 01, 2011, 02:04:56 pm »
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Last two polls with a unified "coalition" ticket:

YouGov: Coalition: 352, Lab: 275, Other: 22
ComRes: Lab: 321, Coalition: 304, Other: 24

That clearly seems to be the way to go for Cameron and especially Clegg.
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« Reply #417 on: February 01, 2011, 02:09:19 pm »
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Last two polls with a unified "coalition" ticket:

YouGov: Coalition: 352, Lab: 275, Other: 22
ComRes: Lab: 321, Coalition: 304, Other: 24

That clearly seems to be the way to go for Cameron and especially Clegg.

Conservatives wouldn't actually win that much from a Coalition ticket IIRC, while the Lib Dems obviously would be able to hold on to quite a few seats (not in the least those seats where the conservatives currently are their main challenger). On the other hand a coalition ticket would probably have every single Left-leaning Liberal backbencher calling for Clegg's head. So that means Cameron hasn't got that big of an incentive to go for it, and Clegg's hands are tied by his own party on the issue, making a coalition ticket not very likely IMHO. Maybe one of our British posters can elaborate?
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« Reply #418 on: February 01, 2011, 02:11:42 pm »
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Last two polls with a unified "coalition" ticket:

YouGov: Coalition: 352, Lab: 275, Other: 22
ComRes: Lab: 321, Coalition: 304, Other: 24

That clearly seems to be the way to go for Cameron and especially Clegg.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43729/labour-still-leads-in-britain-even-if-coalition-partners-run-together/

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The survey was conducted at the height of speculation related to the possibility of the two coalition partners running together in the next General Election. Respondents were asked to reconsider their options in a campaign in which the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats ran as a single party. Under this scenario, Labour remains on top with the support of 45 per cent of decided voters and leaners. The joint Conservative / Liberal Democrats is second with 38 per cent.

The main hindrance for the unified Coalition party—if it ever materializes—would be the patent disappointment from Liberal Democrat supporters. While the merged party would hold on to four-in-five voters who cast a ballot for a Conservative candidate in 2010 (83%), only one third of Liberal Democrat voters in 2010 (32%) would support a joint Tory/Lib-Dem candidate. In fact, almost half of them (46%) would vote for Labour instead.
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« Reply #419 on: February 01, 2011, 02:11:59 pm »
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On the other hand a coalition ticket would probably have every single Left-leaning Liberal backbencher calling for Clegg's head.

Their minds might be swayed if there's a good chance they won't be sitting on a bench at all.
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« Reply #420 on: February 01, 2011, 02:15:49 pm »
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On the other hand a coalition ticket would probably have every single Left-leaning Liberal backbencher calling for Clegg's head.

Their minds might be swayed if there's a good chance they won't be sitting on a bench at all.

They'd prefer a new, untarnished leader, (because, let's be honest, Clegg is more unpopular than Gordon Brown was in May) to try and detoxify themselves from Clegg, rather than a joint Coalition ticket.
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« Reply #421 on: February 01, 2011, 05:07:20 pm »
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YouGov:

Labour - 44% (+2)
Tories - 39% (-1)
Lib Dems - 8% (NC)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3070
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #422 on: February 13, 2011, 09:14:05 pm »
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Reporting this particular poll here because it represents a minor milestone of sorts...

Labour 45%, Con 35%, LDem 9% (YouGov/Sunday Times)

Of course these are fantasy numbers, like all polls this far out. And from a semi-tracker-whatever as well. But, hey.
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« Reply #423 on: February 14, 2011, 03:03:49 pm »
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Big Society speech. Good for the Tories, or bad?
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« Reply #424 on: February 14, 2011, 04:55:21 pm »
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Big Society speech. Good for the Tories, or bad?

Neutral; it's not going to sway many minds either way. The real time to seriously watch is when the new financial year starts and the cuts really hit; especially with the elections in May.
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