UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Hash]

If Labour somehow won the next election, would they still lose Brighton to the Greenies?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

OK, does anyone actually think that these early 40's numbers are going to hold for the tories?

Could easily do in pre-election polling but, as I've said before, I don't think that matters a great deal. As to whether they'll be up there during an election campaign... I don't know and neither does anyone else. Too much is uncertain.

If Labour somehow won the next election, would they still lose Brighton to the Greenies?

It is possible that Labour could hold Brighton Pavilion even if it loses the next election. It's also possible that Labour could win the next election and lose Brighton Pavilion.

[afleitch]

All I can say is that if Labour can get a majority of 66 on a 36% share, the Tories can hold a majority with less than 40%. Chuck the swingometer in the bin. Why?

I have a feeling British politics is about to 'reset' itself back to before the rise of the Lib Dems, the Labour victory, the Tories landslides and even the SDP. If you look at the maps of elections from the 50's to the 70's there is remarkable stability in the seats won by each of the parties, and in the areas both geographic and demographic. While much of this is still apparent I have a feeling older voting habits will re-establish themselves. It won't mean the Tories winning seats in Liverpool but I think we will see huge swings in some seats and minute ones in others that will see some changes in fortune

It has happened to an extent in isolated seats already; the Tory gains in Putney and Weston Super Mare in 2005 for example. Cameron and Brown (and probably Clegg too) will win over different voters than they have done in the recent past. Any 'revert to type' voting would hurt Labour more than the figures would at first suggest. It is far easier for the Conservatives to win an outright majority on a small national swing than it appears.

[afleitch]

YouGov have rolled out another one. No 'ups or downs' on this one as i'm not sure what sample size has been used for comparison

CON 43
LAB 31
LIB 16

The main focus of the poll is on Mr Brown now holding a 'dissatisfaction' rating of 60%. It was 27% in July and 48% in October.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls this late in the year? Normal people aren't thinking about politics right now, dearies. Wait until the New Year.

Just hope that none will be published next week; the numbers would be close to meaningless.

The main focus of the poll is on Mr Brown now holding a 'dissatisfaction' rating of 60%. It was 27% in July and 48% in October.

He's not been seen to be doing anything while things that, while not exactly serious, are not good, have been going on, so that's no surprise. On a more general point, I worry that he's gone down the Wilson road and assumed that people like and will reward an appeal to managerialism. Would be nice to assume that events of the past few months might change that, but...

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls this late in the year? Normal people aren't thinking about politics right now, dearies. Wait until the New Year.

I know . Much as I enjoy chewing over them, it's pretty well off conducting and releasing them this close to Christmas. Surprising as it may seem, even I like to switch off once a year

Dave

[afleitch]

Polls this late in the year? Normal people aren't thinking about politics right now, dearies. Wait until the New Year.

And if the polls in the New Year are still bad, will we be recommended to wait until the spring?

I think we can throw some caution to the wind Al. These polls are not 'worthless' because they do show a great deal of consistency. The Conservatives are holding leads of 10+% reaching 20 year highs. These polls have came in the two weeks after the supposed Brown policy 'relaunch.' What must worry Mr Brown is that if one more fiasco rocks the government (watch this space with the foreign prisoners memo) Labour could dip below 30% and struggle to pull back up. This shouldn't be happening; Brown was supposed to boost a rather tired government. Although, as PB.com have mentioned, the current poll ratings are following a similar pattern to the responses to the hypothetical Brown v Cameron matchup before the succession. While it would be foolish for any moves to be made against him, the possibility of an 'agreement' that he will not lead the party at the next election remains high. It may not swing the election in Labours favour should current trends continue but it could soften the blow and allow the party some post-election breathing space.

What Cameron did in his first two years was 'decontaminate' the Conservative brand. What he did after the summer low was decontaminate himself to such an extent that personal attacks (and 'class' bashing) on Mr Cameron have all but ceased. Even the Daily Mirror have stopped raking through his outside bin

It was noted on PB.com that Camerons own approval, as well as his partys, tended to rise when Cameron was in the media spotlight. Since the conference he has taken a fairly low profile, only really appearing at PMQ's (hence the style of debate to be found there) The cardinal rule when a government is in crisis is not to pop up too often to tell the public what they can already see for themselves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And if the polls in the New Year are still bad, will we be recommended to wait until the spring?

I wasn't trying to make a partisan point; I just don't see the point in doing polls at a time of the year in which ordinary people are paying even less attention to politics than usual.

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All polls outside election time are worthless (almost by definition). If they are consistent then they are less worthless than normal. Polls done around Christmas or so are even more worthless than normal. And so on and so forth.

A slight exaggeration there, but I think that's a reasonable way of looking at things. Btw, I'm not "expecting" polling figures to improve next year; predicting polls really is a waste of time.

[afleitch]

All polls outside election time are worthless (almost by definition)

I'd disagree there; polls during election time can magnify short term issues in the news and ignore long term trends. If taken to excess, as they were in 1992 they can blow up in the polsters face (In 2005 they were more frequent and, were roundly successful with the exception of the BES and Populus ones IIRC) I don't see polls as worthless and I think they are a better gauge of public opinion than holding a general 'feeling.' If I was to revert to that I'd probably say if the public were paying close attention to politics at this time of year, 32% would be pretty generous! In
fact the only time of the year the public do regularly pay close attention to politics, is during conference season when polls are most likely to be guff.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Message see what Australian Labor did.

* They neutralised perceived weaknesses, by agreeing with Government policy on popular issues

* They highlighted their differences on issues that people don't like.

...and it worked like a dream.

The "it's time" factor is hovering in the UK too, Brown may be different to Blair, but he was by his side the whole time. So he's never going to be free of the connection.

[afleitch]

Message see what Australian Labor did.

* They neutralised perceived weaknesses, by agreeing with Government policy on popular issues

* They highlighted their differences on issues that people don't like.

...and it worked like a dream.

The "it's time" factor is hovering in the UK too, Brown may be different to Blair, but he was by his side the whole time. So he's never going to be free of the connection.

I would agree with that. The Conservatives have not opposed for oppositions sake on many issues under Cameron (and likewise with Howard). I also think that the electorate are tiring of the government. It's not to be unexpected after 10 and what will be at least 12 years by the next election. The economy is not looking rosy, but keeping it chugging along is simply expected these days. There hasn't been a European wide recession for over 15 years. In Australia the economy was sluggish but ticking over yet the Coalition lost. The message to those who bleat on about the economy is simple;

If people elected a government solely on who manage a growing economy, or encouraged economic growth then Howard and the Coalition would have been re-elected and Major and the Tories would have been re-elected in 1997

If people are sick of the government everything the government does right doesn't matter and everything it doesn't do right is magnified. Our government is heading that way. Only in retrospect will we know if it has in fact already reached that point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd disagree there; polls during election time can magnify short term issues in the news and ignore long term trends.

Polls never have anything to do with long term trends; only General Elections do and some of those should probably be ignored as flukes.

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Yes, but that isn't the point. Polls taken during an election (by which I'm including the weeks leading up the official kickoff of the campaign) have a purpose and can be judged in an objective way after the election. Not true of other polls; they measure hypotheticals and not a lot else.

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Worthless is, I'll admit, an exaggeration. Except when polls are done around Christmas, in the middle of the Summer and so on. There was a local by-election last night with a turnout of 14%.

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True. But I'm not sure that that says much.

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Touché (though I'm not entirely sure about that; if more people paid attention to politics it's likely that the nature of political journalism and the like would be different in some way. But now I'm playing with hypotheticals and should stop before it's too late )

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Ah, but hast thee considered why conference polls are so useless?

[minionofmidas]

I'd disagree there; polls during election time can magnify short term issues in the news and ignore long term trends.

Polls never have anything to do with long term trends; only General Elections do and some of those should probably be ignored as flukes.

Quite a lot of them, actually ... but of course that way of looking at it has little to recommend itself to professional politicians whose jobs are on the line ... or even to anyone whose future may depend on the next election's outcome.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite a lot of them, actually ... but of course that way of looking at it has little to recommend itself to professional politicians whose jobs are on the line ... or even to anyone whose future may depend on the next election's outcome.

Such people (the first group anyway...) generally aren't too interested in long term trends so that's nothing to worry about

[afleitch]

ICM out with

CON 39
LAB 34
LIB 18

Compared with the last Guardian ICM poll, the Tories are up 2, Labour up 3 and the Lib Dems down 1. However there was also a NofTW poll by ICM after that.

ICM seems to be having fun with some internals.

It's Labour 40, Conservative 38% in the 'North' with the Tories up 12 pts and Labour down 7 pts since August

In 'Midlands and East', The Tories lead 48 to 32. In the 'South' they lead by 53 to 23. Labour lead in London with 39 to 38

For Scotland and Wales all the Guardian has said is that the Tories are up 3 pts since August with the SBP leading in Scotland by 39 to 36

Only in Scotland and Wales has the Tory revival faltered: the party is up just three points since the summer. But Labour is also in trouble in Scotland, trailing the SNP by three points, 39% to 36%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM out with

CON 39
LAB 34
LIB 18

I take back all that stuff I said about end-of-year-polls being bunk.

Actually... I don't.

Will say something of interest (to me...) on regional breakdown lols (a general comment not specific to this poll) and the reason for it when I'm next online. Apparently I've nothing better to do.

[afleitch]

ComRes completes the polling picture for December

CON 41 (up 1)
LAB 30 (up 3)
LIB 16 (down 2)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They released a poll on Christmas Eve?!?!!?

Civilisation is dead.

[afleitch]

They released a poll on Christmas Eve?!?!!?

Civilisation is dead.

Fieldwork was before then, but they should be the last to report. Bear in mind for some consistency polling companies that release one a month don't hold back just because it's Christmas. Polling mid-month is just to messy for them it seems :/

[Democratic Hawk]

They released a poll on Christmas Eve?!?!!?

Civilisation is dead.

Fieldwork was before then, but they should be the last to report. Bear in mind for some consistency polling companies that release one a month don't hold back just because it's Christmas. Polling mid-month is just to messy for them it seems :/

Fieldwork was completed on 16 December, in effect three days before that of the latest ICM and YouGov, so, as far as I'm concerned, it should have been released Saturday, at the latest.

Releasing a poll on Christmas Eve is pretty well off

Dave

[politicaltipster]

New British projections (with Rolling Averages and Polls-of-polls as reference points)

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/british-polling-projections-conservative-majority-of-4/

Very small Conservative majority.

[politicaltipster]

New British projections - hung parliament with Labour as the largest party.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/20/british-polling-projections-hung-parliament/

[politicaltipster]

My final Samplemiser prediction for the first preferences FWIW is that Boris Johnson will (unfortunatly) win by 8.15 (though I don’t know about the second preferences).

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/05/01/final-prediction-johnson-leads-by-815/

[afleitch]

YouGov show a 26 point Conservative lead

CON 49%: LAB 23%: LD 17%

[The Man From G.O.P.]

When's the last time a poll showed a lead bigger than the 2nd place party's support?