UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Hash]

I guess I can add the other poll here.

Angus - Reid says...





Funny how both polls have it at a sixteen point lead.

After checking, it's a Populus poll.

[afleitch]

Ipsos Mori show Tories breaking 50%

CON: 52%
LAB: 24%
LIB: 15%

'Tis a silly poll but...

Seat forecast on a uniform swing

CON 488
LAB 121
LIB 13

CON MAJ 326

[Keystone Phil]

This is going to be one hilarious election (whenever it happens).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ipsos Mori show Tories breaking 50%

CON: 52%
LAB: 24%
LIB: 15%

'Tis a silly poll but...

Seat forecast on a uniform swing

CON 488
LAB 121
LIB 13

CON MAJ 326

Desperate Spinner: our vote is holding up! This is the first Mori poll in months that it's not fallen further off a cliff! Recovery!!!!!

A Different Desperate Spinner: 121 seats is a whole 69 more than we managed in 1931; and boundaries then were more favourable to us than they are now!!!!

But, seriously...

I heard that the LibDem figure was actually 12%. Not that it matters; this isn't a poll done to measure public opinion so much as it is to change the opinions (in a newsworthy direction, whatever that is) of a small group of people next week or so. I know, I know, I'm a dreadful (to paranoid) cynic about that sort of thing, but this time the chances of me being wrong are rather small. Especially given the source, so to speak. I guess we'll see more polls like this over the next few days, but hopefully not quite so comical.

[afleitch]

Ipsos Mori show Tories breaking 50%

CON: 52%
LAB: 24%
LIB: 15%

'Tis a silly poll but...

Seat forecast on a uniform swing

CON 488
LAB 121
LIB 13

CON MAJ 326

Desperate Spinner: our vote is holding up! This is the first Mori poll in months that it's not fallen further off a cliff! Recovery!!!!!

A Different Desperate Spinner: 121 seats is a whole 69 more than we managed in 1931; and boundaries then were more favourable to us than they are now!!!!

But, seriously...

I heard that the LibDem figure was actually 12%. Not that it matters; this isn't a poll done to measure public opinion so much as it is to change the opinions (in a newsworthy direction, whatever that is) of a small group of people next week or so. I know, I know, I'm a dreadful (to paranoid) cynic about that sort of thing, but this time the chances of me being wrong are rather small. Especially given the source, so to speak. I guess we'll see more polls like this over the next few days, but hopefully not quite so comical.

It's all good fun. It has the Tories winning Glasgow North for example. I think it's as wrong as the 50%+ Labour got in polls in '95-'96.

However...

I think it points to movement towards the Conservatives that should see it form the next government. It is also pointing towards Mr Cameron being given a landslide (at around the same time the economy picks up which we will, of course take the credit for even if we had nothing to do with it as all governments do ). This will probably be enough to secure Mr Cameron two terms.

I'm a bit like Pym when it comes to landslides, but I can't deny one would be nice to experience.

[afleitch]

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.

With the SNP first?

[afleitch]

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.

With the SNP first?

We don't tend to think about the other parties I think we can come in 3rd myself and that's about it.

I think the SNP can overhaul double digit Labour majorities in a host of seats from Edinburgh East to Livingston. However it is very difficult to predict. Seats like Stirling are particularly tricky. If SNP popularity takes a slide and Labour remain low then it makes everything interesting. I would expect an unhealthy number of 3 or even 4 way marginals.

While I don't expect them to outpoll Gordon Brown in his seat I would bet a few pennies on it anyway. Alistair Darling is probably the biggest scalp, if the Tories can benefit in Edinburgh SW

[Keystone Phil]

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister. 

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

[Franzl]

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister. 

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?

[Keystone Phil]

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister. 

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?

No. The man comes across as, and apparently is, a total phoney. I've never been a fan.

[Franzl]

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister. 

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?

No. The man comes across as, and apparently is, a total phoney. I've never been a fan.

shame actually...I thought we might find something to agree on politically.

I do like him.

But regardless who the leader is, I'd vote Conservative in Britain right now.

[afleitch]

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister. 

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

Yes and No. It handily combines it with the Euros

However I (hack hat on) believe Brown has every intention of bringing the party down with him. He will hang on until the last possible moment in 2010.

Going in 2009 I think is better for him TBH. It is anticipated that mid 2010 will see an uptick in the economy and the 'mini-boom' that will bring. With the Tories in the door they will simply claim credit for it or be associated with it at the very least. Always remember that the Tories got a drubbing in 1997 after 3 years of solid growth on the part above the Eurozone average. We may end up with a Tory landslide, but it will provide them with a years worth of a shaky economy and all the problems that may entail if the recovery is not as strong as is hoped.

If they go into the election whenever it is, if they privately prepare for defeat (unlike the Tories in '97) they will be all the better for it.

[minionofmidas]

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister. 

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?

No. The man comes across as, and apparently is, a total phoney. I've never been a fan.

Yeah. Kind of figured he's not your type of Tory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It has the Tories winning Glasgow North for example.

Now that is rather amusing

However...

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Meh. I won't criticise thee for fantasising this time

Though I'll say that you're always better off being happy with what you have now than looking for better and better news in the years to come (an interesting flaw in modern society is the latter trait). Best way to avoid disillusionment really.

(fwiw I still expect a Tory majority of between 40 and 60 at the next election. Though I'm not stubborn enough to avoid lowering or raising that if the facts do change. I'll also stick my neck out and say that the swing (whatever it is) will be highest in suburban areas, especially post 1970's ones and especially ones with a lot of growth in the past decade).

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Why do I suspect that this election is never going to happen while the Tories are polling ahead by such large margins.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Although I had a feeling that David Cameron was going to wipe the floor with Gordon Brown in the upcoming poll regarding next year's general election, I didn't expect Cameron to break the near invincible glass ceiling in UK political polls of 50 percent. It took myself by surprise, even my Global Economics teacher as I stated Holy S**t upon learning Cameron's achievement and learning that Gordon Brown has a worse popularity rating than George W. Bush.

[Hash]

Guys, it's one poll in 2008. This election could be in two years time.

[afleitch]

Guys, it's one poll in 2008. This election could be in two years time.

True. But the Tories have maintained a 10% then a 15-20+% lead in the polls for some months now. The Tories target is a 42% vote share. They may exceed that but they won't get over a 50% share. To do so, and to heap up a majority of 200-300 would be dangerous for the British democractic process.

I will accept a Tory landslide that is enough to keep them in power for 2 or 3 terms. But I don't want a 1931 style rout.

[Smid]

I will accept a Tory landslide that is enough to keep them in power for 2 or 3 terms. But I don't want a 1931 style rout.

A super majority is not a good thing...

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

[afleitch]

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Speaking of panic and showing what a moveable lot the voters are.

Probably best for an update. The Tories began to dive in September falling below 40% in one ComRes poll in October and sinking below 40% 'for real' in mid December. Labour soared above 30% to hit 35-36 in mid December with a Tory lead of a few %

But 2009 has painted a different picture so far with leads of 10, 9, 13 and 14, putting the Tories back to pre conference levels, but not near the inflated summer lead.

[Sam Spade]

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Which makes the likelihood of such situation....

Well, I'd put the odds at decently high.  Much higher than you might think.

[afleitch]

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Which makes the likelihood of such situation....

Well, I'd put the odds at decently high.  Much higher than you might think.

I actually agree with that statement. Even if Brown waits until 'last moment 2010' and the economy is spluttering to life again, what is behind him may haunt him. This recession may break all sorts of post war 'records' - economic contraction, bailouts, bankruptcies and even break Thatcher's unemployment record. What will the government have going for it?

I doubt Labour will fall below 150 seats or anthing calamatous, but a 1997 style rout is a possibility. It will be interesting to see the strength of the SNP at national level and what that could translate to. On that note I'd still put a flutter on Brown loosing his seat.

[Sam Spade]

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Which makes the likelihood of such situation....

Well, I'd put the odds at decently high.  Much higher than you might think.

I actually agree with that statement. Even if Brown waits until 'last moment 2010' and the economy is spluttering to life again, what is behind him may haunt him. This recession may break all sorts of post war 'records' - economic contraction, bailouts, bankruptcies and even break Thatcher's unemployment record. What will the government have going for it?

I doubt Labour will fall below 150 seats or anthing calamatous, but a 1997 style rout is a possibility. It will be interesting to see the strength of the SNP at national level and what that could translate to. On that note I'd still put a flutter on Brown loosing his seat.

Well, with what Britain's doing right now in terms of economic policies, there's about 100 times more likely chance of serious currency devaluation or outright debt default before the election than any attempt of an economic recovery.