UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Keystone Phil]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/patrick__hennessy_/blog/2009/04/21/new_poll_gives_david_cameron_pause_for_thought

Reliable poll?

If this is accurate, well, I knew I had a reason to be skeptical of the Tory lead...

[afleitch]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/patrick__hennessy_/blog/2009/04/21/new_poll_gives_david_cameron_pause_for_thought

Reliable poll?

If this is accurate, well, I knew I had a reason to be skeptical of the Tory lead...

MORI's poll out today has CON 41, LAB 28, LIB 22. So a 13 point lead there. People get oddly worried because the Tories only have a 10 point lead.

[Keystone Phil]

People get oddly worried because the Tories only have a 10 point lead.

Isn't that close to the bare minimum of what they need to win enough seats though?

[afleitch]

People get oddly worried because the Tories only have a 10 point lead.

Isn't that close to the bare minimum of what they need to win enough seats though?

Only on a Uniform National Swing. But the country don't swing like that. A UNS swing in 2005 would have seen a Labour majority of 100. They got 66. It is probably more important who is voting, not how they are voting; if Tory voters come out and vote they get in. If Labour voters stay at home they get in. There doesn't have to be many 'switchers' from Labour to Tory for the Tories to win a majority.

I've spoken to Al about starting a General Election thread with swings, seats and gadgets for the next election.

Which will probably be sooner than most people think

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something that should be pointed out (as it is always, always forgotten) is that when there is a sizeable swing, it tends to be a lot higher in marginal seats, thus it's always easier to win a majority than a uniform swing suggests.

No, that's not strictly true. Swings in socially polarised marginals can often be relatively low (this contrasts with low turnout elections of course, where swings in socially polarised wards or constituencies are typically unusually high). It's more that swings tend to be highest where there are big concentrations of swing voters.

[Keystone Phil]

I've spoken to Al about starting a General Election thread with swings, seats and gadgets for the next election.

Which will probably be sooner than most people think

Great!

[Dan the Roman]

Something that should be pointed out (as it is always, always forgotten) is that when there is a sizeable swing, it tends to be a lot higher in marginal seats, thus it's always easier to win a majority than a uniform swing suggests.

No, that's not strictly true. Swings in socially polarised marginals can often be relatively low (this contrasts with low turnout elections of course, where swings in socially polarised wards or constituencies are typically unusually high). It's more that swings tend to be highest where there are big concentrations of swing voters.

Swings tend to be greatest in "medium marginals" aka the seats needing 4 - 10 point swings to change. The really close seats that need like a .4% swing will always be incredibly close because the incumbents realize how much danger they are in and work their asses off. Its the Labour MP who won by 12 last time, but who sits in a seat the Tories held for decades prior to 1997 that is going to have to really worry.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

People get oddly worried because the Tories only have a 10 point lead.

Isn't that close to the bare minimum of what they need to win enough seats though?

Only on a Uniform National Swing. But the country don't swing like that. A UNS swing in 2005 would have seen a Labour majority of 100. They got 66. It is probably more important who is voting, not how they are voting; if Tory voters come out and vote they get in. If Labour voters stay at home they get in. There doesn't have to be many 'switchers' from Labour to Tory for the Tories to win a majority.

I've spoken to Al about starting a General Election thread with swings, seats and gadgets for the next election.

Which will probably be sooner than most people think

Do it Now

[afleitch]

First post budget (treat with caution) poll

YouGov, with changes on the last YouGov poll

CON 45 (+4)
LAB  27 (-7)
LIB   18 (+2)

Which could give a Tory majority of 154 seats

[Keystone Phil]

First post budget (treat with caution) poll

YouGov, with changes on the last YouGov poll

CON 45 (+4)
LAB  27 (-7)
LIB   18 (+2)

Which could give a Tory majority of 154 seats

Ouch (but not for my side)! 

[Eraserhead]

Labour deserves to be punished for its sins.

[Hash]

Labor deserves to be punished for its sins.

Learn to spell correctly before you post.

[Eraserhead]

Labor deserves to be punished for its sins.

Learn to spell correctly before you post.

Learn to not be a pompous jackass before you post.

[Hash]

Labor deserves to be punished for its sins.

Learn to spell correctly before you post.

Learn to not be a pompous jackass before you post.

In Britain, it's Labour. So spell it Labour when referring to Britain.

[Eraserhead]

Labor deserves to be punished for its sins.

Learn to spell correctly before you post.

Learn to not be a pompous jackass before you post.

In Britain, it's Labour. So spell it Labour when referring to Britain.

I know that. It was a typo and I already fixed it.

[Hash]

Labor deserves to be punished for its sins.

Learn to spell correctly before you post.

Learn to not be a pompous jackass before you post.

In Britain, it's Labour. So spell it Labour when referring to Britain.

I know that. It was a typo and I already fixed it.

Muy bien. Gracias.

[afleitch]

The Tories got their post-Budget bounce scoring 45% in the past 3 polls. Labour are between 26 and 27 and the Lib Dems between 17 and 18.

It seems unlikely anything can drive Labour below 25%.

However a breakdown of the 2005 'recall' vote in the ComRes poll makes for interesting reading. Labour have a 'retention' level of 50% (based on 2005 voters voting again) with 17% switching to the Tories and 6% to the Lib Dems (these figures have fluctuated) Labour's retention has been at between 50-60% for some time now. By comparison the Tories are holding onto 90%+ voters.

[afleitch]

After a quiet period (about two weeks) two polls are out tomorrow. One gives the Tories a 16pt lead, the other a 22 pt lead. More soon.

[big bad fab]

Are Tories still underpolled by UK pollsters ?
Is this old story always true, even for 2-3 points ?

[Silent Hunter]

Are Tories still underpolled by UK pollsters ?
Is this old story always true, even for 2-3 points ?

At the moment, I doubt it. That's my instinct, though.

[afleitch]

Populus

CON 39 (-4)
LAB 26 (-4)
LIB 22 (+4)

[afleitch]

YouGov

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 22 (-5)
LIB 19 (+1)

Lowest Labour vote share in a Westminster voting intention opinion poll in 60 years of polling

[The Man From G.O.P.]

YouGov

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 22 (-5)
LIB 19 (+1)

Lowest Labour vote share in a Westminster voting intention opinion poll in 60 years of polling

Alex Salmond must be frothing at the mouth at the thought of an election right now.

Big question is where is the -2 and -5 going? the Lib Dems must be soo thrilled to see they still can't catch a break, then again, Lembit Opik looked the fool on BBC today, I'm just not sure if the LD's are catching as much heat as the two big parties.

[afleitch]

YouGov

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 22 (-5)
LIB 19 (+1)

Lowest Labour vote share in a Westminster voting intention opinion poll in 60 years of polling

Alex Salmond must be frothing at the mouth at the thought of an election right now.

Big question is where is the -2 and -5 going? the Lib Dems must be soo thrilled to see they still can't catch a break, then again, Lembit Opik looked the fool on BBC today, I'm just not sure if the LD's are catching as much heat as the two big parties.

The 'Others' share always creeps up around the time of the Euros and this recent crisis has inflated that even more. Seeing a 41% vote share for the Tories and down just 2 points after everything is pleasing. It means the Tory core vote is stronger than people often give them credit for. Cameron this week acted like Blair did when he was in opposition...and I mean that as a compliment.

[Frodo]

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but are there any actual policies where the Conservatives differ substantively from the Labour Party?  Or are they simply a lighter shade of red, ideologically speaking?