UK Opinion Polls Thread
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Author Topic: UK Opinion Polls Thread  (Read 68628 times)
The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #150 on: May 14, 2009, 06:22:33 PM »

YouGov

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 22 (-5)
LIB 19 (+1)

Lowest Labour vote share in a Westminster voting intention opinion poll in 60 years of polling

Alex Salmond must be frothing at the mouth at the thought of an election right now.

Big question is where is the -2 and -5 going? the Lib Dems must be soo thrilled to see they still can't catch a break, then again, Lembit Opik looked the fool on BBC today, I'm just not sure if the LD's are catching as much heat as the two big parties.

The 'Others' share always creeps up around the time of the Euros and this recent crisis has inflated that even more. Seeing a 41% vote share for the Tories and down just 2 points after everything is pleasing. It means the Tory core vote is stronger than people often give them credit for. Cameron this week acted like Blair did when he was in opposition...and I mean that as a compliment.


Yeah, he was swift about it, and gave no doubts anyone could get the chop if they didn't comply. I was surprised to see Brown drag out the "review and examine" language one more (last?) time, I really thought they would try to do better than that.
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afleitch
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« Reply #151 on: May 14, 2009, 06:25:35 PM »

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but are there any actual policies where the Conservatives differ substantively from the Labour Party?  Or are they simply a lighter shade of red, ideologically speaking? 

Yes. There are many differences, but it would take some time to mention Smiley

For your visual pleasure, here are the polls since January. I've used a 3 poll 'rolling' average. As the pollsters seem to publish polls very regularly now, any differences in methodology are ironed out.



Notice the Tories, for now, bouncing between 40 and 45%
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #152 on: May 14, 2009, 06:31:05 PM »

Am I right in thinking 20% is not the ceiling for the Lib Dems... are they really not going to benefit from Labour's horrible numbers.


That graph is really interesting though. Is it possible they could actually intersect at some point? What kind of reaction would that news story get?
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afleitch
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« Reply #153 on: May 14, 2009, 06:40:03 PM »

Am I right in thinking 20% is not the ceiling for the Lib Dems... are they really not going to benefit from Labour's horrible numbers.


That graph is really interesting though. Is it possible they could actually intersect at some point? What kind of reaction would that news story get?

It depends on whether it is permanent. In October 2003, in the days of Blair, Duncan Smith and Kennedy, One poll had a 33/33/28 split. Almost a year later one poll had the Lib Dems ahead of Labour by one point (Lab 28, Lib 29) So there were times of madness in the polls in the last parliament. However these soon settled again.

It would take a series of polls of Labour falling behind the Lib Dems for it to make a serious impact. Labour is in a catch 22. It cannot afford to have Brown as leader, or to remove him. They cannot afford to fight an election (yet) as they have serious fundraising problems.
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #154 on: May 14, 2009, 06:47:02 PM »

Is there any light anywhere for them? Other than they have reached the bottom (have they?)
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #155 on: May 15, 2009, 02:05:22 AM »

Just watched Margaret Beckett on QT... the crowd reaction was... interesting.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #156 on: May 15, 2009, 08:53:24 AM »

Am I right in thinking 20% is not the ceiling for the Lib Dems... are they really not going to benefit from Labour's horrible numbers.


That graph is really interesting though. Is it possible they could actually intersect at some point? What kind of reaction would that news story get?

It depends on whether it is permanent. In October 2003, in the days of Blair, Duncan Smith and Kennedy, One poll had a 33/33/28 split. Almost a year later one poll had the Lib Dems ahead of Labour by one point (Lab 28, Lib 29) So there were times of madness in the polls in the last parliament. However these soon settled again.

It would take a series of polls of Labour falling behind the Lib Dems for it to make a serious impact. Labour is in a catch 22. It cannot afford to have Brown as leader, or to remove him. They cannot afford to fight an election (yet) as they have serious fundraising problems.


Were there other occasions on which Lib Dems (or Alliance or SLD or anything you want) were ahead of Labour (or Tories) in polls since 1981 ?
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Verily
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« Reply #157 on: May 15, 2009, 09:48:42 AM »

Am I right in thinking 20% is not the ceiling for the Lib Dems... are they really not going to benefit from Labour's horrible numbers.


That graph is really interesting though. Is it possible they could actually intersect at some point? What kind of reaction would that news story get?

It depends on whether it is permanent. In October 2003, in the days of Blair, Duncan Smith and Kennedy, One poll had a 33/33/28 split. Almost a year later one poll had the Lib Dems ahead of Labour by one point (Lab 28, Lib 29) So there were times of madness in the polls in the last parliament. However these soon settled again.

It would take a series of polls of Labour falling behind the Lib Dems for it to make a serious impact. Labour is in a catch 22. It cannot afford to have Brown as leader, or to remove him. They cannot afford to fight an election (yet) as they have serious fundraising problems.


Were there other occasions on which Lib Dems (or Alliance or SLD or anything you want) were ahead of Labour (or Tories) in polls since 1981 ?


There was an ICM poll (IIRC) with a three-way tie at 30% in 2003, or maybe 2004. The Alliance also peaked at over 50% in some polls immediately prior to the Falklands War in early 1982. I would assume the Alliance polled ahead of Labour at least sometimes in the run-up to the 1983 election, too.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #158 on: May 15, 2009, 02:16:45 PM »

Is there any light anywhere for them? Other than they have reached the bottom (have they?)

The economy might begin to recover early next year. Emphasis on might.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #159 on: May 15, 2009, 02:18:13 PM »

Labour needs a miracle
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afleitch
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« Reply #160 on: May 15, 2009, 02:48:27 PM »

Is there any light anywhere for them? Other than they have reached the bottom (have they?)

The economy might begin to recover early next year. Emphasis on might.

Probably won't affect the outcome by much. Remember that the economy had 4 years of robust growth after the ERM crisis. In the polls the Tories were ahead of Labour on who best to manage the economy in 1997. A few months of an improving economy will not be enough to reverse Labours deficit on this issue.

Cameron looked like the PM this week. He is Blair circa '96. It may also all end in tears in ten years time but for now....
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #161 on: May 15, 2009, 03:03:42 PM »

He is Blair circa '96. It may also all end in tears in ten years time but for now....

Bingo...
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #162 on: May 15, 2009, 05:02:59 PM »

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but are there any actual policies where the Conservatives differ substantively from the Labour Party?  Or are they simply a lighter shade of red, ideologically speaking? 

There are days I wonder whether Labour are simply a lighter shade of blue. A pox on all their houses. The state of British politics is appalling. The pits Angry
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #163 on: May 15, 2009, 05:49:22 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2009, 05:51:42 PM by Obama Supporter UK »

A bit off topic, but has anyone seen the latest European Election Poll?
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afleitch
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« Reply #164 on: May 16, 2009, 01:14:06 PM »

BPIX (not a member of the British Polling Insitute) has

CON 42
LAB 20
LIB 15

Others are at 23%

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afleitch
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« Reply #165 on: May 16, 2009, 01:48:41 PM »

And ComRes has:

CON 40
LAB 21
LIB 18

Poll showing the Tories leading in every part of the country (including Scotland) and amongst every social group
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #166 on: May 16, 2009, 01:53:07 PM »


Probably won't affect the outcome by much. Remember that the economy had 4 years of robust growth after the ERM crisis. In the polls the Tories were ahead of Labour on who best to manage the economy in 1997. A few months of an improving economy will not be enough to reverse Labours deficit on this issue.

No, but it might contract the Tory lead slightly.

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afleitch
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« Reply #167 on: May 16, 2009, 01:55:54 PM »


Probably won't affect the outcome by much. Remember that the economy had 4 years of robust growth after the ERM crisis. In the polls the Tories were ahead of Labour on who best to manage the economy in 1997. A few months of an improving economy will not be enough to reverse Labours deficit on this issue.

No, but it might contract the Tory lead slightly.



So reduce a 20+ lead to a 15+ or 10+ lead perhaps? That still means a Conservative victory and at the rate things are going, a landslide. I do expect voters to drift back to Labour as they did for the Tories in 96-97. But I do not believe it will be enough to help Labour anything other than to limit the damage.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #168 on: May 16, 2009, 02:01:22 PM »


Probably won't affect the outcome by much. Remember that the economy had 4 years of robust growth after the ERM crisis. In the polls the Tories were ahead of Labour on who best to manage the economy in 1997. A few months of an improving economy will not be enough to reverse Labours deficit on this issue.

No, but it might contract the Tory lead slightly.



So reduce a 20+ lead to a 15+ or 10+ lead perhaps? That still means a Conservative victory and at the rate things are going, a landslide. I do expect voters to drift back to Labour as they did for the Tories in 96-97. But I do not believe it will be enough to help Labour anything other than to limit the damage.

Yeah, that's what I meant.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #169 on: May 16, 2009, 02:11:53 PM »

I can see both Labour and the Lib Dems falling below the 20% mark at the next election. I think UKIP are going to win a seat or two, and possibly the Greens and the BNP too.
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Hash
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« Reply #170 on: May 16, 2009, 03:50:32 PM »


lol?
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afleitch
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« Reply #171 on: May 16, 2009, 04:21:25 PM »


Yes.

I expect the Tories to poll 20-22% in the next election. However if Labour collapse, I don't expect them to hold up here. The SNP are favourites to top the poll. Expect some crazy swings up here...
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afleitch
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« Reply #172 on: May 16, 2009, 05:31:01 PM »



Bit of an update.
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afleitch
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« Reply #173 on: May 30, 2009, 02:47:03 PM »

Update. In two polls Labour seemed to rebound; populus has a 39/27/17 split. However a week later, the Tories rose 2 points to 41, Labour slumped to 21 down 6 and the Lib Dems also took a hit down 2 to 15.

ICM are now out. The Tories are up 1 from 39 to 40, Labour down 6 to 22...and the Liberal Democrats are up 5 to 25 overtaking Labour
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Verily
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« Reply #174 on: May 30, 2009, 02:54:04 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2009, 02:57:42 PM by Verily »

Populus and ICM are so strikingly in disagreement that it's hard to know who to believe. The only things they agree on are that Labour is in the toilet, and the Greens are surging for the Euros.

ICM Euro figures are:

Con 29
LD 20
Lab 17
Green 11
UKIP 10
BNP 5

The "third behind the LDs" headline is really tough on Labour, though. It means tactical switchers on the left, the sort who would never vote for the Tories/UKIP and also not the sort for the BNP, from Labour to the LDs (and maybe the Greens for Euros). Could reinforce the decline that has so far been held back a bit by the sense that Labour are the leading party of the left/social liberalism.
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