UK Opinion Polls Thread

[afleitch]

Populus and ICM are so strikingly in disagreement that it's hard to know who to believe. The only things they agree on are that Labour is in the toilet, and the Greens are surging for the Euros.

ICM Euro figures are:

Con 29
LD 20
Lab 17
Green 11
UKIP 10
BNP 5

The "third behind the LDs" headline is really tough on Labour, though. It means tactical switchers on the left, the sort who would never vote for the Tories/UKIP and also not the sort for the BNP, from Labour to the LDs (and maybe the Greens for Euros). Could reinforce the decline that has so far been held back a bit by the sense that Labour are the leading party of the left/social liberalism.

ICM tend to 'apportion' Lib Dem votes differently and are often over generous so I agree with you there. For me the real relief is seeing (barring the slip to 39) a Tory 'floor' of 40% which leads me to believe that a Conservative landslide may be in the works. The two 'rules' over on Poltiicalbetting.com is 'Everytime Cameron is on the telly the Tories get a boost' and 'The lowest Labour vote share in any set of polls is most likely to be the correct one.' Whether they will hold true is another matter.

Once again there is talk of ousting Brown if the results next week are severe and there is open hostility towards him on nearly every Labour media source. Any move of that nature would probably force a General Election. To be honest Labour have everything to loose no matter when they call a GE -they may as well go now.

[afleitch]

And of course all that PR talk sounds rather silly if this latest poll is confirmed. I don't see Labour supporting any system that may see them ousted not only from government but effectively from opposition. Loose that status, and the coverage and mandate that gives and the Labour party is effectively dead.

[Phony Moderate]

BIG NEWS:

ICM Westminster Poll:

Conservatives - 40%
Liberal Democrats - 25%
Labour - 22%

Bye bye New Labour.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd piss myself if the Lib Dems polled better than Labour in the actual election.

[Phony Moderate]

My prediction - General Election next month.

[Verily]

Populus and ICM are so strikingly in disagreement that it's hard to know who to believe. The only things they agree on are that Labour is in the toilet, and the Greens are surging for the Euros.

ICM Euro figures are:

Con 29
LD 20
Lab 17
Green 11
UKIP 10
BNP 5

The "third behind the LDs" headline is really tough on Labour, though. It means tactical switchers on the left, the sort who would never vote for the Tories/UKIP and also not the sort for the BNP, from Labour to the LDs (and maybe the Greens for Euros). Could reinforce the decline that has so far been held back a bit by the sense that Labour are the leading party of the left/social liberalism.

ICM tend to 'apportion' Lib Dem votes differently and are often over generous so I agree with you there. For me the real relief is seeing (barring the slip to 39) a Tory 'floor' of 40% which leads me to believe that a Conservative landslide may be in the works. The two 'rules' over on Poltiicalbetting.com is 'Everytime Cameron is on the telly the Tories get a boost' and 'The lowest Labour vote share in any set of polls is most likely to be the correct one.' Whether they will hold true is another matter.

Once again there is talk of ousting Brown if the results next week are severe and there is open hostility towards him on nearly every Labour media source. Any move of that nature would probably force a General Election. To be honest Labour have everything to loose no matter when they call a GE -they may as well go now.

Generally, ICM does the best with the Lib Dem share far away from the election precisely because they ask about local voting intention instead of simply which party you support. This means that they pick up tactical votes for the LDs from both Labour and the Tories in LD marginals as well as popular local MPs holding seats which might otherwise vote Conservative or Labour. Of course, they've shown some very high LD figures in the past, mostly famously the three-way tie at 31% in 2003. But, then again, that was around the crisis time for the IDS-led Tories and at a time when Iraq was very fresh in the minds of everyone, so a high Lib Dem score would have been expected.

I suspect they're quite correct on where the LDs stand right now--but it's very much open to question how well that would hold up if Labour actually ousted Brown and replaced him with Johnson. Probably not well. But will Labour even have the political will to do so? I'm not sure. The timing of the election to the Speakership also makes choosing a new leader very difficult, since an overthrow can't take place before September (Speakership election, then the Parliamentary recess).

[Keystone Phil]

My prediction - General Election next month.

Haha, wow. That would be awesome but why do you feel that way? Do you think Brown thinks it will only get worse and/or he just wants it over with at this point?

[afleitch]

My prediction - General Election next month.

That would take us into July. Holiday time. Brown won't go to the country because huge numbers of people won't be there I expect an autumn election.

Of course...and there may be a but...we could see a 'shy Labour' factor in play in the polls. Luckily we have election next week to test that out.

[Keystone Phil]

Brown won't go to the country because huge numbers of people won't be there

That's a reason why he wouldn't call the election then? 

[afleitch]

I suspect they're quite correct on where the LDs stand right now--but it's very much open to question how well that would hold up if Labour actually ousted Brown and replaced him with Johnson. Probably not well. But will Labour even have the political will to do so? I'm not sure.

People were talking about Brown in early 2007 in the same way they are now talking about Johnson. I personally find Alan Johnson very annoying...that aside however, it's the Labour Party that is damaged. All Johnson may be able to do is save Labour from falling below 30% at a GE. Still leaves room for a Tory victory.

Clegg however has to be very careful; the membership and many in the party still have a tendency to cosy up to Labour, yet the polls show it's voters prefer Cameron and the Tories over any Labour led adminstration by a sizeable margin. Cameron has 'love bombed' the Lib Dems in the past; he will have an easy line of attack if the Lib Dems associate with Labour. They will have to heed the lesson of the 2007 Holyrood elections.

[Phony Moderate]

My prediction - General Election next month.

Haha, wow. That would be awesome but why do you feel that way? Do you think Brown thinks it will only get worse and/or he just wants it over with at this point?

I think after these elections are over and Brown is in the Commons, he will feel like being on trial, because Cameron and his buddies will put so much pressure on him to call an election. He will call one in the hope that it gains him some respect and maybe a boost in the polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Been half-expecting this for a while. Oh well. Things are clearly very volatile and unpredictable at the moment and little should be trusted much, but awful ratings for us are now the constant factor. If things are anything like this bad on Thursday, Brown probably goes, one way or another and would become the principle casualty of the expenses mess; which on one level would be monstrously unfair, but then politics isn't even slightly fair (which he knows and has benefited from in the past). The summer would then be filled up by a leadership election (they take a while and I don't think a coronation is all that likely, unless someone popular with activists, the PLP and the main Union bosses has been quietly plotting away for a while now) before the new leader has little choice to call a snap election, resulting in a Tory majority of uncertain size.

As for Labour not having the political will to do what might have to be done, well, when given the option of a possible return to the 1930's or a possible return to the 1980's, the less awful choice is likely to triumph. I don't put much stock in the rumours about a pact with the LibDems, but if that does happen it'd likely the the proverbial camel-back-breaking-straw. I reserve the right to be totally and utterly wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

that aside however, it's the Labour Party that is damaged.

Regrettably, this is true. People do not expect Labour figures to have snouts-in-trough in such as way, and this is why we have been so badly hurt by this. The thing is, Wilson was right. The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.

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...which would mean the continued existence of a big PLP.

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That ship sailed a long time ago...

[afleitch]

that aside however, it's the Labour Party that is damaged.

Regrettably, this is true. People do not expect Labour figures to have snouts-in-trough in such as way, and this is why we have been so badly hurt by this. The thing is, Wilson was right. The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.

And to compound things, it looks like it's Cameron whose going on the 'moral crusade.' He is very good at playing 'anrgy/concerned' while looking normal. It is not usualy for Tory politicians to 'out normal' Labour ones...

That aside, what Labour have to look out for is where their vote takes a hit. The elections should also confirm if the SNP are now the 'natural' party for government in Scotland. It was announced this week that Labour are concerned the only MP left in the east of Scotland next year will be Gordon Brown (Darling is heavily tipped to loose his seat)

Locals should also paint a picture of what to expect next year. I think Sunderland Central and Bury South are odds on Tory gains at the GE, even if the national swing is less based on the last local election cycle. The Tories have learned from the Lib Dems how to 'suffocate' the opposition from some seats locally that a few years later have swung or fallen to the challenger.

And to be blunt. They have shitloads of money, and most of it has already been spent before the election to ensure they will win their target seats.

[Verily]

I suspect they're quite correct on where the LDs stand right now--but it's very much open to question how well that would hold up if Labour actually ousted Brown and replaced him with Johnson. Probably not well. But will Labour even have the political will to do so? I'm not sure.

People were talking about Brown in early 2007 in the same way they are now talking about Johnson. I personally find Alan Johnson very annoying...that aside however, it's the Labour Party that is damaged. All Johnson may be able to do is save Labour from falling below 30% at a GE. Still leaves room for a Tory victory.

Of course. Johnson would not mean Labour wins the election--at least, I think that very unlikely. But he would save Labour from a true humiliation, maybe to a defeat only on the scale of 1979 rather than 1983 or worse.

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Certainly true, and I agree. But I think the Lib Dems have learned that lesson, especially given the reluctance to support Labour in Wales after the 2007 election (eventually forcing Plaid into that unhappy position).

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Circulating that Brown will reshuffle the deck chairs after they finish 3rd to the Tories and UKIP. Balls to be Chancellor.

Uh. Ok. Let's pick the guy who might be one of a few people less popular then Darling.

[Tender Branson]

General Election (YouGov for The Daily Telegraph):

Tories: 29%
Labour: 22%
Liberal Democrats: 18%
Others: 31%

[Serenity Now]

General Election (YouGov for The Daily Telegraph):

Tories: 29%
Labour: 22%
Liberal Democrats: 18%
Others: 31%

Do we have a breakdown for this? Others eems very high and Tories too low - are you sure this isn't for the Euros?

[Hash]

General Election (YouGov for The Daily Telegraph):

Tories: 29%
Labour: 22%
Liberal Democrats: 18%
Others: 31%

lol. Joke poll.

[Hash]

Tender posted it wrong. The actual poll: http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/DT-toplines_27-29MAY.pdf

Con 39
Lab 22
LD 18
UKIP 7
BNP 5
Greenies 4
Nats 3
Others 2

[Tender Branson]

Tender posted it wrong.

Thx for the link. It wasn't online when I checked the YouGov page in the morning.

I got my figures from here (it's still not updated):

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5ha6yipaakionGB2gPRPPWUdoP2KQ

The 7-percent difference wouldn't have made sense really.

[Verily]

Of course, the poll is junk anyway because the minor parties would never actually get a result that strong. Maybe 1% for UKIP and 2% for the BNP and Greens are the peaks in the GE--and that's pretty generous to the latter two given that they'll only run in maybe 100-200 seats. (UKIP won't manage to run more than 50 or so candidates next time I would expect, and even if they do much of their 2005 vote will revert to the Conservatives.)

ICM may be giving low "Others" figures compared to everyone else, but theirs are the only ones that are reasonable for a GE. Again, because they ask for local voting intention; everyone else is getting a lot of "This is who I'm voting for at Euros", which is totally unhelpful.

(Note that this isn't an endorsement of the ICM figures otherwise, just the low Others number. 13% is about the peak of what the combined Nats-BNP-Greens-UKIP-NI parties-etc. can hope to get at the next election.)

[Verily]

MORI comes up with:

Con: 40 (-1)
Lab: 18 (-10) !!!
LD: 18 (+4)

MORI has a very strict certainty-to-vote filter that is probably skewing things a bit, but wow...

[Tender Branson]

MORI comes up with:

Con: 40 (-1)
Lab: 18 (-10) !!!
LD: 18 (+4)

MORI has a very strict certainty-to-vote filter that is probably skewing things a bit, but wow...

Based on the whole sample:

CON: 35
LAB: 24
LIB: 19
Greens: 7
UKIP: 5
BNP: 3
SNP: 3
Other: 4

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/_assets/pdfs/may09-political-monitor-topline.pdf

[afleitch]

MORI comes up with:

Con: 40 (-1)
Lab: 18 (-10) !!!
LD: 18 (+4)

MORI has a very strict certainty-to-vote filter that is probably skewing things a bit, but wow...

Based on the whole sample:

CON: 35
LAB: 24
LIB: 19
Greens: 7
UKIP: 5
BNP: 3
SNP: 3
Other: 4

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/_assets/pdfs/may09-political-monitor-topline.pdf

But you cannot base it on the whole sample either....