UK Opinion Polls Thread

[afleitch]

ComRes sounds like it's going to be fun...if you believe, as I do that Labour on 18% is trash look forward to what ComRes may be saying about the Tories.

[Verily]

The ComRes poll is... interesting. Don't what to say about it other than that ComRes is trash. As politicalbetting.com has pointed out, their past vote weightings are all skewed, but even applying the ICM weightings instead just turns it into Con 33, LD 20, Lab 19, which, while not bad for the Lab and LD figures is obviously off for the Con figure--although scaling the Other vote down to 13% or so would make it not far off from the ICM figures, maybe to Con 38, LD 24, Lab 22, or along those lines.

Anyway, ComRes:

Con: 30 (-10)
Lab: 22 (+)
LD: 18 (nc)

[afleitch]

The ComRes poll is... interesting. Don't what to say about it other than that ComRes is trash. As politicalbetting.com has pointed out, their past vote weightings are all skewed, but even applying the ICM weightings instead just turns it into Con 33, LD 20, Lab 19, which, while not bad for the Lab and LD figures is obviously off for the Con figure--although scaling the Other vote down to 13% or so would make it not far off from the ICM figures, maybe to Con 38, LD 24, Lab 22, or along those lines.

Anyway, ComRes:

Con: 30 (-10)
Lab: 22 (+)
LD: 18 (nc)

Mike Smithson suggested that if you used ICM's stable weightings, you'd get a Tory lead of 15%. Independent are putting it on their front page. However it is is, probable; that if not substantiated by another poll they will be pulled up by the British Polling Council. There is talk of trying to adjust for 'shy' voters; particularly shy Labour voters.

It looks right for a Euro poll, which people thought it was at the start. Luckily Thursday will act as a valuable barometer.

[Verily]

YouGov has a new pair of polls for Euros and a GE.

GE:

Con: 37 (-2)
Lab: 21 (-1)
LD: 19 (+1)

Again, Others are ridiculously high; UKIP is at an absurd 8%, and the Greens aren't much better at 5%. 4% Nats is not totally unrealistic, but 4% for the BNP is. Stupid Euros, skewing the GE polls. Anyway, Euros...

Euros:

Con: 26 (-1)
UKIP: 18 (+2)
Lab: 16 (-1)
LD: 15 (nc)
Green: 10 (+1)
BNP: 5 (-2)

[afleitch]

YouGov has a new pair of polls for Euros and a GE.

GE:

Con: 37 (-2)
Lab: 21 (-1)
LD: 19 (+1)

Again, Others are ridiculously high; UKIP is at an absurd 8%, and the Greens aren't much better at 5%. 4% Nats is not totally unrealistic, but 4% for the BNP is. Stupid Euros, skewing the GE polls. Anyway, Euros...

Euros:

Con: 26 (-1)
UKIP: 18 (+2)
Lab: 16 (-1)
LD: 15 (nc)
Green: 10 (+1)
BNP: 5 (-2)

Yes. The thing to watch is the gap between Labour and the Tories, currently 16 points.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

[Phony Moderate]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

I see... will I search for "BBC" or what?

[afleitch]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

I see... will I search for "BBC" or what?

Remember, Euros will be covered on Sunday when the counting takes place.

[Democratic Hawk]

No General Election until all is revealed by the expenses enquiry. Lets just see who exactly has been abusing the system before we throw the bums out

[afleitch]

No General Election until all is revealed by the expenses enquiry. Lets just see who exactly has been abusing the system before we throw the bums out

I don't think we can last that long. It's pretty much over; Brown, Labour, the government, it's done. Whether there is an election now, or next June the result I feel will be the same, but the effect of a government in crisis during a crisis is not good for Britain. It's better to go to the country sooner rather than later.

[Verily]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

I see... will I search for "BBC" or what?

Remember, Euros will be covered on Sunday when the counting takes place.

And most county councils will not be announcing results until Friday. Only three, IIRC, will release results tomorrow night.

[Keystone Phil]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

I see... will I search for "BBC" or what?

Remember, Euros will be covered on Sunday when the counting takes place.

And most county councils will not be announcing results until Friday.

Yeah, that's really lame. I figured we'd get Euro results tomorrow.

Anyway, this is probably the best link to watch anything live (from around the world) - http://wwitv.com/portal.htm

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

I see... will I search for "BBC" or what?

Remember, Euros will be covered on Sunday when the counting takes place.

And most county councils will not be announcing results until Friday.

Yeah, that's really lame. I figured we'd get Euro results tomorrow.

Anyway, this is probably the best link to watch anything live (from around the world) - http://wwitv.com/portal.htm

Not sure it has BBC proper on it.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

I do believe this might be the best one so far.


http://www.atdhe.net/watchtv4.php?b=n

[Democratic Hawk]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/johnson-would-deny-tories-outright-victory-1700167.html

Johnson would deny Tories outright victory

Exclusive: 'Independent' poll reveals that new leader could transform Labour's prospects

Tuesday, 9 June 2009

By Andrew Grice, Political Editor

Alan Johnson would deny David Cameron an overall majority at the next general election if Labour ditched Gordon Brown and installed him as prime minister, according to a new poll for The Independent ...


... Independent poll: Which leader would put the smile back on Labour's face?

Alan Johnson, Home Secretary

Man most likely to succeed Gordon Brown if he is toppled before general election.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 36% Labour 26% Lib Dems 19% (Con six seats short of majority.)
Support among Labour identifiers: 76%

Jack Straw, Justice Secretary

His withdrawal of support could finish Brown.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 36% Labour 25% Lib Dems 19% (Con majority of 10)
Support among Labour identifiers: 71 per cent

David Miliband, Foreign Secretary

Raised profile last summer but campaign faltered
Election result with him as leader:
Con 37% Labour 25% Lib Dems 19% (Con majority: 30)
Support among Labour identifiers: 73%

Jon Cruddas, Backbencher

Turned down ministerial job and enjoys support on left of party.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 36% Labour 22% Lib Dems 21% (Con majority of 42.)
Support among Labour identifiers: 69 per cent

Ed Balls, Schools Secretary

Brown's favoured successor. Ambition to become Chancellor.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 37% Labour 23% Lib Dems 20% (Con majority of 46)
Support among Labour identifiers: 67 per cent

Gordon Brown, Prime Minister

Hoping to see off plotters as Cabinet did not join revolt
Election result with him as leader:
Con 38% Labour 22% Lib Dems 20% (Con majority: 74)
Support among Labour identifiers: 71 per cent

Harriet Harman, Deputy leader

Would be strong candidate in full-scale leadership contest.
Election result with her as leader:
Con 38% Labour 22% Lib Dems 20% (Con majority of 74)
Support among Labour identifiers: 67 per cent

James Purnell, Former cabinet minister

Blairite who quit as Work and Pensions Secretary last Thursday. Would win respect if Brown was ousted.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 38% Labour 21% Lib Dems 21% (Con majority of 94)
Support among Labour identifiers: 66 per cent

[afleitch]

Balls does better than Brown..does anyone know Ed Balls is? I'm pleased to see Johnson could only close the gap to 10 points. We are already sharpening our knifes should he become leader but I would consider the public will see to that.

[You kip if you want to...]

Balls does better than Brown..does anyone know Ed Balls is? I'm pleased to see Johnson could only close the gap to 10 points. We are already sharpening our knifes should he become leader but I would consider the public will see to that.

I really hope he was bluffing when he said he wasn't at all interested. And even if he did become leader and we still lost, Johnson would be the difference between locking us out of Downing Street for 5 or 10 years and locking us out for another 20 years.

[Phony Moderate]

Bump.

We should probably keep the opinion polls in this thread, at least until the next election is called.

[You kip if you want to...]

First voting intention for the next election.

Con 38% (+2) Lab 34% (+5) LD 21% (-2). (changes on GE result)
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday

Interesting post-Brown bounce.

Only 5 years to go.

And
CON 38% (+2) LAB 33% (+4) LD 21% (-2)

[Hash]

Good to see the "Liberal Democrats" down.

[You kip if you want to...]

Good to see the "Liberal Democrats" down.

You could see it the hackish way that I see it and say that the ConDem Party are at the same point as they were last week.

[Phony Moderate]

Some interesting polls recently.

YouGov:

National Government - 59% (Tories - 43%, Lib Dems - 16%)
Labour - 36%
Others - 5% (must be the lowest for some time)

ICM:

National Government - 57% (Tories - 41%, Lib Dems - 16%)
Labour - 35%
Others - 8%

[You kip if you want to...]

Some interesting polls recently.

YouGov:

National Government - 59% (Tories - 43%, Lib Dems - 16%)
Labour - 36%
Others - 5% (must be the lowest for some time)

ICM:

National Government - 57% (Tories - 41%, Lib Dems - 16%)
Labour - 35%
Others - 8%

I'd be getting a bit worried if I was Nick Clegg and I was polling 15s and 16s when my party was at 24 just 2 months ago...

I wonder how the lefty LD backbenchers will be feeling when the LDs start to hit rock bottom...

[You kip if you want to...]

The graph since election day's quite funny...

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention