UK Opinion Polls Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

Good numbers. I like this government.

Good for the Conservative side of the coalition, not so much for the Liberal side.

Ipsos-Mori Poll:

National Government - 54% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 14%)
Labour - 38%
Others - 8%

I wonder when we'll see a Labour lead.

[Democratic Hawk]

Good numbers. I like this government.

Good for the Conservative side of the coalition, not so much for the Liberal side.

Ipsos-Mori Poll:

National Government - 54% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 14%)
Labour - 38%
Others - 8%

I wonder when we'll see a Labour lead.

We don't see this very often, but, the Conservaties lead Labour by 3 (38-35) among all (81%) giving a voting intention; while 32% (+4)*, generally, think of themselves as being Conservative; 31% (n/c), Labour; 14% (-7) Lib Dem; and 23%(+3), Other None

* Change on April 2010

[You kip if you want to...]

Good numbers. I like this government.

Good for the Conservative side of the coalition, not so much for the Liberal side.

Ipsos-Mori Poll:

National Government - 54% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 14%)
Labour - 38%
Others - 8%

I wonder when we'll see a Labour lead.

We don't see this very often, but, the Conservaties lead Labour by 3 (38-35) among all (81%) giving a voting intention; while 32% (+4)*, generally, think of themselves as being Conservative; 31% (n/c), Labour; 14% (-7) Lib Dem; and 23%(+3), Other None

* Change on April 2010

Left LD deserters going to "Other" and right LD deserters thinking "oh, may as well be Tory then if they're gonna coalition"?

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov
Con 42 (-2)
Lab 37 (+2)
LD 14 (+1)

Government approval
40/38 - Lowest net approval since election.

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov/Sunday Times
Con 42 (nc)
Lab 38 (nc)
LD 12 (-2)

How low can they go? On UKPR's archives, it appears that 12% is the lowest the LDs have ever had from YouGov.

I'm willing to predict that the next LD leader will be Tim Farron or Charles Kennedy. It's all they'll have left.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't we fall below 20% at the height of the expenses mania? I don't have an especially good memory of that period, as I was... um... not in the best of health at the time.

By which I mean, opinion polls can show all sorts of strange things midterm. Really low ratings are often the result of depressed supporters claiming that they won't vote, rather than a genuine shift in partisan affiliation, fwiw.

Edit: back in the late 80s (the lowest point in Centre support in opinion polling since the 1950s - and maybe even including the 1950s - I think) the LibDems (SLD then) often polled around 5% or so.

[You kip if you want to...]

Didn't we fall below 20% at the height of the expenses mania? I don't have an especially good memory of that period, as I was... um... not in the best of health at the time.

By which I mean, opinion polls can show all sorts of strange things midterm. Really low ratings are often the result of depressed supporters claiming that they won't vote, rather than a genuine shift in partisan affiliation, fwiw.

Edit: back in the late 80s (the lowest point in Centre support in opinion polling since the 1950s - and maybe even including the 1950s - I think) the LibDems (SLD then) often polled around 5% or so.

There was one poll, from Ipsos-Mori, with 40-18-18.

[Torie]

On the day Nick Clegg delivers a gaffe filled PMQs, YouGov brings us:
44 (+1) - 35 (nc) - 13 (-1)

Lowest for the LibDems from YouGov since 16th November 2007.

Speaking of Clegg's performance last week at PM's question time, the Speaker cut him off for  failing to answer a question, and going off on some tangent (which happens all the time actually between the government spokesperson and the opposition spokesperson; it is only the back-benchers who are on a tighter leash). That was the first time I have ever seen that happened to the guy behind the dispatch box. Has anyone else seen that before? His performance was indeed unsteady. He was almost sweating at points. I meant to bring the matter up, to ask the Brits what they thought about it.

[You kip if you want to...]

On the day Nick Clegg delivers a gaffe filled PMQs, YouGov brings us:
44 (+1) - 35 (nc) - 13 (-1)

Lowest for the LibDems from YouGov since 16th November 2007.

Speaking of Clegg's performance last week at PM's question time, the Speaker cut him off for  failing to answer a question, and going off on some tangent (which happens all the time actually between the government spokesperson and the opposition spokesperson; it is only the back-benchers who are on a tighter leash). That was the first time I have ever seen that happened to the guy behind the dispatch box. Has anyone else seen that before. His performance was indeed unsteady. He was almost sweating at points. I meant to bring the matter up, to ask the Brits what they thought about it.

I think it happened to Cameron a few weeks back, but I could be wrong. I'm certain it happened between Cameron and the speaker when he was opposition leader.

[You kip if you want to...]

ComRes for The Independant
8/8/2010

Con 39 (-1)
Lab 33 (+2)
LD 16 (-2)
Changes since June 27th.

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2773


YouGov for The Sun
9/8/10

Con 40 (-2)
Lab 36 (nc)
LD 15 (+2)

[Phony Moderate]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2772

Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-3), LAB 46%(+1), LDEM 11%(nc), SNP 32%(+3)
Holyrood regional: CON 11%(-1), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), SNP 30%(+2)

[You kip if you want to...]

I wonder if this "House prices are up! The sky is falling!" narrative from the media will have much effect on the polls.

[You kip if you want to...]

Wednesday's YouGov:
CON 41% (-1)
LAB 37% (-1)
LDEM 15% (+1)

Government approval: 41 (nc)/40 (+1)

Narrowest approval spread to date.

[You kip if you want to...]

A dodgy poll from Harris/Daily Mail:

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2777

The Mail published it with undecideds/won't say/don't knows included giving: 29-28-12

[Phony Moderate]

ICM:

37/37/18

The first poll to show Labour not behind the Tories since....

[You kip if you want to...]

ICM:

37/37/18

The first poll to show Labour not behind the Tories since....

January 23rd 2008, from Ipsos-Mori. First from ICM since October 4th 2007, when it was 38-38-16.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's meaningless, really, but I smiled a little. Hah.

[Phony Moderate]

Sky News "Poll":

43/24/8

[You kip if you want to...]

ComRes/Daily Mirror/GMTV

Con 39 (nc) Lab 33 (nc) LD 15 (-1)

Changes since August 8th.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yougov 23/08/2010:
Latest net government approval rating 0 (40% approve, 40% disapprove)

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41% (nc), LAB 39% (+1), LDEM 12% (nc).

39% is the highest Labour's had form YouGov since 21st September 2007.

[Democratic Hawk]

Yougov 23/08/2010:
Latest net government approval rating 0 (40% approve, 40% disapprove)

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41% (nc), LAB 39% (+1), LDEM 12% (nc).

39% is the highest Labour's had form YouGov since 21st September 2007.

His Sneering Arrogancy, of course, might get a baby "bounce" but Cleggover ain't fairing too well

[You kip if you want to...]

Yougov 23/08/2010:
Latest net government approval rating 0 (40% approve, 40% disapprove)

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41% (nc), LAB 39% (+1), LDEM 12% (nc).

39% is the highest Labour's had form YouGov since 21st September 2007.

His Sneering Arrogancy, of course, might get a baby "bounce" but Cleggover ain't fairing too well

Of course, Dave's paternity leave should bring some more good Cleggy gaffes.

[Democratic Hawk]

Yougov 23/08/2010:
Latest net government approval rating 0 (40% approve, 40% disapprove)

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41% (nc), LAB 39% (+1), LDEM 12% (nc).

39% is the highest Labour's had form YouGov since 21st September 2007.

His Sneering Arrogancy, of course, might get a baby "bounce" but Cleggover ain't fairing too well

Of course, Dave's paternity leave should bring some more good Cleggy gaffes.

Of course, it hadn't occurred to be that He Who Reeks of an Acute Stench of Entitlement That Often Comes With Privilege would be on paternity leave

I was asked recently if my opinion of Nick Clegg had changed. It has. Pre-election I'd thought Clegg was an idiot, I am now absolutely certain that he is an idiot

[Democratic Hawk]

Many Lib Dems seem to want Nick to take a more "aggressive" approach in articulating their party's values because right now he seems all too willing to play the role of some 'compliant wife'. If it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, in all probability, it is a duck

[You kip if you want to...]

Many Lib Dems seem to want Nick to take a more "aggressive" approach in articulating their party's values because right now he seems all too willing to play the role of some 'compliant wife'. If it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, in all probability, it is a duck

If they wanted to remain a separate entity, they shouldn't have entered the coalition with all but one of their MPs agreeing. If they're so annoyed, get a new leader.