UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Phony Moderate]

"Which foreign leader would you most like to see lead the UK?"

Obama - 21%
Merkel - 16%
Gillard - 13%

http://today.yougov.co.uk/politics/obama-brits%E2%80%99-favourite-lead

[You kip if you want to...]

Gillard - 13%

LOL, please no

[You kip if you want to...]

Angus Reid (joke pollster, but whatever) shows "The Coalition" tied with Labour - the first time any company has done so.

43 (+2)
32 (-1)
11 (-1)

The Tory figure is why there isn't an election on the horizon, the Liberal % doesn't matter. This would also mean that Labour would win against a "National government" ticket, right? (If this result was to play out, of course.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Curious. When Gallup destroyed their credibility here, they stopped working here. Angus Reid seem to have adopted a different approach.

[You kip if you want to...]

Curious. When Gallup destroyed their credibility here, they stopped working here. Angus Reid seem to have adopted a different approach.

To be fair to them, they're picking up what every othe firm is: Liberal hemorrhaging has slowed, the Tories have started to fall - both to Labour's joy.

[afleitch]

Actually the polls aren't picking up anything at all

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.nextleft.org/2011/01/cameron-no-longer-more-centrist-than.html

[minionofmidas]

Interesting. I suppose the "voters" columns are the self-placements of voters, while the other columns are aggregate placements by voters of all parties? Would be interesting to see party's and leader's placements by party support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. I suppose the "voters" columns are the self-placements of voters, while the other columns are aggregate placements by voters of all parties? Would be interesting to see party's and leader's placements by party support.

Yeah, that's right. As for the rest... http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Prospect-Left-Right-310111.pdf

Though YouGov's internals are often seriously screwy because of the way they do polls.

[You kip if you want to...]

Last night's ComRes:

43 (+1)
34 (nc)
10 (-2)

I'm still finding it hard to believe that Cleggmania was actually a thing.

[tpfkaw]

YouGov (Jan. 31)

Lab - 42 (-2)
Con - 40 (+2)
Lib - 8 (nc)

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

So just how screwed are the LibDems.... UKPollingReport's swingometer doesn't really give an accurate prediction when you throw in 'extreme' scenarios like LibDems falling to 8%.  I'd have to imagine that if an election were held today that LD's share of seats would fall through the floor.

[You kip if you want to...]

So just how screwed are the LibDems.... UKPollingReport's swingometer doesn't really give an accurate prediction when you throw in 'extreme' scenarios like LibDems falling to 8%.  I'd have to imagine that if an election were held today that LD's share of seats would fall through the floor.

18 seats would be a blessing for them, if there was an election today. Presumably, they'll get a drubbing at the assembly elections in May (I saw one prediction the other day pegging them at 1 seat in Wales) and they'll probably lose some big councils like Sheffield and see further loses on councils they lost big on in 2010 (i.e. Liverpool).

Depending on how much you pay attention to swingometers though, the lower the Conservatives go, the better it is for the Liberals in terms of seats. They'd go from oblivion to the edge of oblivion if the Conservatives polled say 32%, as opposed to 40% at the next election.

There's also the matter in seats like Eastleigh and Berwick-upon-Tweed of how badly Labour tactical voters coming back to the party will harm the Liberals and if this can be made up by Tories voting more tactically in the north than they normally do. There's also the possibility of many personal votes being harmed (see Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam and Simon Hughes in Bermondsey).

[minionofmidas]

fwiw (which is ridiculously little), feeding the last two polls here into a swingometer gives respectively

Labour 375, Con 232, LD 19, other 23

and

Labour 335, Con 282, LD 8, other 24

The 8 LD seats would be Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion, Norfolk North, Twickenham, Bath, and Yeovil.

[You kip if you want to...]

fwiw (which is ridiculously little), feeding the last two polls here into a swingometer gives respectively

Labour 375, Con 232, LD 19, other 23

and

Labour 335, Con 282, LD 8, other 24

The 8 LD seats would be Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion, Norfolk North, Twickenham, Bath, and Yeovil.

A Farron/Laws leadership election would be fun.

[minionofmidas]

I like the one seat the others are losing to Labour in the first scenario compared to the second.

Gordon.
That's right. Lol.

[tpfkaw]

Last two polls with a unified "coalition" ticket:

YouGov: Coalition: 352, Lab: 275, Other: 22
ComRes: Lab: 321, Coalition: 304, Other: 24

That clearly seems to be the way to go for Cameron and especially Clegg.

[Insula Dei]

Last two polls with a unified "coalition" ticket:

YouGov: Coalition: 352, Lab: 275, Other: 22
ComRes: Lab: 321, Coalition: 304, Other: 24

That clearly seems to be the way to go for Cameron and especially Clegg.

Conservatives wouldn't actually win that much from a Coalition ticket IIRC, while the Lib Dems obviously would be able to hold on to quite a few seats (not in the least those seats where the conservatives currently are their main challenger). On the other hand a coalition ticket would probably have every single Left-leaning Liberal backbencher calling for Clegg's head. So that means Cameron hasn't got that big of an incentive to go for it, and Clegg's hands are tied by his own party on the issue, making a coalition ticket not very likely IMHO. Maybe one of our British posters can elaborate?

[Phony Moderate]

Last two polls with a unified "coalition" ticket:

YouGov: Coalition: 352, Lab: 275, Other: 22
ComRes: Lab: 321, Coalition: 304, Other: 24

That clearly seems to be the way to go for Cameron and especially Clegg.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43729/labour-still-leads-in-britain-even-if-coalition-partners-run-together/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[tpfkaw]

On the other hand a coalition ticket would probably have every single Left-leaning Liberal backbencher calling for Clegg's head.

Their minds might be swayed if there's a good chance they won't be sitting on a bench at all.

[You kip if you want to...]

On the other hand a coalition ticket would probably have every single Left-leaning Liberal backbencher calling for Clegg's head.

Their minds might be swayed if there's a good chance they won't be sitting on a bench at all.

They'd prefer a new, untarnished leader, (because, let's be honest, Clegg is more unpopular than Gordon Brown was in May) to try and detoxify themselves from Clegg, rather than a joint Coalition ticket.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov:

Labour - 44% (+2)
Tories - 39% (-1)
Lib Dems - 8% (NC)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3070

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reporting this particular poll here because it represents a minor milestone of sorts...

Labour 45%, Con 35%, LDem 9% (YouGov/Sunday Times)

Of course these are fantasy numbers, like all polls this far out. And from a semi-tracker-whatever as well. But, hey.

[You kip if you want to...]

Big Society speech. Good for the Tories, or bad?

[Silent Hunter]

Big Society speech. Good for the Tories, or bad?

Neutral; it's not going to sway many minds either way. The real time to seriously watch is when the new financial year starts and the cuts really hit; especially with the elections in May.