Am I right in thinking 20% is not the ceiling for the Lib Dems... are they really not going to benefit from Labour's horrible numbers.
That graph is really interesting though. Is it possible they could actually intersect at some point? What kind of reaction would that news story get?
It depends on whether it is permanent. In October 2003, in the days of Blair, Duncan Smith and Kennedy, One poll had a 33/33/28 split. Almost a year later one poll had the Lib Dems ahead of Labour by one point (Lab 28, Lib 29) So there were times of madness in the polls in the last parliament. However these soon settled again.
It would take a series of polls of Labour falling behind the Lib Dems for it to make a serious impact. Labour is in a catch 22. It cannot afford to have Brown as leader, or to remove him. They cannot afford to fight an election (yet) as they have serious fundraising problems.
Were there other occasions on which Lib Dems (or Alliance or SLD or anything you want) were ahead of Labour (or Tories) in polls since 1981 ?
