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Author Topic: UK Opinion Polls Thread  (Read 68653 times)
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change08
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« on: June 09, 2009, 10:49:26 AM »

Balls does better than Brown..does anyone know Ed Balls is? I'm pleased to see Johnson could only close the gap to 10 points. We are already sharpening our knifes should he become leader but I would consider the public will see to that.

I really hope he was bluffing when he said he wasn't at all interested. And even if he did become leader and we still lost, Johnson would be the difference between locking us out of Downing Street for 5 or 10 years and locking us out for another 20 years.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2010, 03:48:34 PM »

First voting intention for the next election. Wink

Con 38% (+2) Lab 34% (+5) LD 21% (-2). (changes on GE result)
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday

Interesting post-Brown bounce.

Only 5 years to go.

And
CON 38% (+2) LAB 33% (+4) LD 21% (-2)
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2010, 05:39:15 PM »

Good to see the "Liberal Democrats" down.

You could see it the hackish way that I see it and say that the ConDem Party are at the same point as they were last week. Wink
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2010, 09:57:54 AM »

Some interesting polls recently.

YouGov:

National Government - 59% (Tories - 43%, Lib Dems - 16%)
Labour - 36%
Others - 5% (must be the lowest for some time)

ICM:

National Government - 57% (Tories - 41%, Lib Dems - 16%)
Labour - 35%
Others - 8%

I'd be getting a bit worried if I was Nick Clegg and I was polling 15s and 16s when my party was at 24 just 2 months ago...

I wonder how the lefty LD backbenchers will be feeling when the LDs start to hit rock bottom...
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2010, 04:16:14 PM »

The graph since election day's quite funny...

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2010, 09:42:40 AM »

YouGov Poll:

National Government - 57% (Tories - 42%, Lib Dems - 15%)
Labour - 36%
Others - 7%

If these numbers were repeated at the next General Election (based on UNS):

National Government - 343 seats (Tories - 322 seats, Lib Dems - 21 seats)
Labour - 281 seats
Others - 26 seats

National Government majority of 36

I wonder what the Liberals will do if they start hitting round and about 12 like they were under Ming.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2010, 11:09:22 AM »


I still can't wait to see how Nick Clegg tries to turn stuff around. The cuts haven't even started hitting hard yet.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2010, 02:07:05 PM »

Populus says that the Liberals have collapsed in their marginals. The Tories would gain 30 seats in the Con/Lib marginals and the Lab/Lib marginals weren't even mentioned and considering everywhere else the Liberals have collapsed, benefitting Labour, it wouldn't be hard to see what'd happen.

They've still got 5 years of this to go.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
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« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2010, 06:11:58 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2010, 06:16:09 PM by Vote Yellow, Get Blue »

Tonight's YouGov has them on 14, their lowest from YouGov since February 2009.

I wonder when/if they'll hit single digits. Looking on UKPR, they haven't hit single digits since April 1997. Would the knives be out for Clegg should that happen?
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2010, 02:21:33 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2010, 02:29:57 PM by Vote Yellow, Get Blue »

On the day Nick Clegg delivers a gaffe filled PMQs, YouGov brings us:
44 (+1) - 35 (nc) - 13 (-1)

Lowest for the LibDems from YouGov since 16th November 2007.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2010, 06:47:22 PM »

Are they still doing daily polls? Weird.

I know. It's pretty redundant considering we won't be seeing an election until June 2015 (apparently).
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2010, 08:25:40 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2010, 08:30:48 PM by change08 »

On the day Nick Clegg delivers a gaffe filled PMQs, YouGov brings us:
44 (+1) - 35 (nc) - 13 (-1)

Lowest for the LibDems from YouGov since 16th November 2007.


It's a wonder the Conservatives aren't pushing Cameron to throw Clegg under the bus and go to the country

What's the new dissolution rules again? 66% and parliament's dissolved?

Either way, hasn't there got to be a 4 month gap between elections?

I actually think Cameron will get this through 2015 though. Considering all the noise he's made about a 2015 election and a fixed-term parliament, he probably knows that he'd just look like an oppurtunist if he went to the country so soon. The LibDems won't want him going to the country either, with poll numbers at 13%. That's why I think the junior partner, atleast, will stick this through until 2015.

Both sides have too much to lose should an election be called early.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2010, 03:20:43 PM »

OnePoll:

National Government - 63% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 23%)
Labour - 30%
Others - 7%



OnePoll aren't considered a credible pollster.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2576
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2010, 07:53:12 PM »

Sunday's YouGov:
Con 41 (-3), Lab 36 (+1), LD 14 (+1)

Liberal surge!

Government approval is at 41/35 and YouGov notes on their Twitter, the following:
Quote
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
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« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2010, 01:48:24 PM »

Con 38 (-3)
Lab 34 (-1)
LD 19 (+3)

ICM/Guardian from this weekend. YouGov/The Sun is out at 10pm and there might be a Mori poll coming.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2010, 08:06:11 PM »

YouGov
Con 44 (+3)
Lab 35 (-1)
LD 13 (-1)

And 57% of British adults think Buckingham Palace was right to ban Nick Griffin from garden party.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2010, 12:31:21 PM »


Good for the Conservative side of the coalition, not so much for the Liberal side.

Ipsos-Mori Poll:

National Government - 54% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 14%)
Labour - 38%
Others - 8%

I wonder when we'll see a Labour lead.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2010, 12:46:42 PM »


Good for the Conservative side of the coalition, not so much for the Liberal side.

Ipsos-Mori Poll:

National Government - 54% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 14%)
Labour - 38%
Others - 8%

I wonder when we'll see a Labour lead.

We don't see this very often, but, the Conservaties lead Labour by 3 (38-35) among all (81%) giving a voting intention; while 32% (+4)*, generally, think of themselves as being Conservative; 31% (n/c), Labour; 14% (-7) Lib Dem; and 23%(+3), Other None

* Change on April 2010

Left LD deserters going to "Other" and right LD deserters thinking "oh, may as well be Tory then if they're gonna coalition"?
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2010, 04:54:43 PM »

YouGov
Con 42 (-2)
Lab 37 (+2)
LD 14 (+1)

Government approval
40/38 - Lowest net approval since election.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2010, 04:09:00 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2010, 08:06:11 PM by change08 »

YouGov/Sunday Times
Con 42 (nc)
Lab 38 (nc)
LD 12 (-2)

How low can they go? On UKPR's archives, it appears that 12% is the lowest the LDs have ever had from YouGov.

I'm willing to predict that the next LD leader will be Tim Farron or Charles Kennedy. It's all they'll have left. Wink
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2010, 08:14:59 AM »

Didn't we fall below 20% at the height of the expenses mania? I don't have an especially good memory of that period, as I was... um... not in the best of health at the time.

By which I mean, opinion polls can show all sorts of strange things midterm. Really low ratings are often the result of depressed supporters claiming that they won't vote, rather than a genuine shift in partisan affiliation, fwiw.

Edit: back in the late 80s (the lowest point in Centre support in opinion polling since the 1950s - and maybe even including the 1950s - I think) the LibDems (SLD then) often polled around 5% or so.

There was one poll, from Ipsos-Mori, with 40-18-18.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2010, 09:02:44 PM »

On the day Nick Clegg delivers a gaffe filled PMQs, YouGov brings us:
44 (+1) - 35 (nc) - 13 (-1)

Lowest for the LibDems from YouGov since 16th November 2007.


Speaking of Clegg's performance last week at PM's question time, the Speaker cut him off for  failing to answer a question, and going off on some tangent (which happens all the time actually between the government spokesperson and the opposition spokesperson; it is only the back-benchers who are on a tighter leash). That was the first time I have ever seen that happened to the guy behind the dispatch box. Has anyone else seen that before. His performance was indeed unsteady. He was almost sweating at points. I meant to bring the matter up, to ask the Brits what they thought about it.

I think it happened to Cameron a few weeks back, but I could be wrong. I'm certain it happened between Cameron and the speaker when he was opposition leader.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2010, 05:34:19 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2010, 05:51:11 PM by change08 »

ComRes for The Independant
8/8/2010

Con 39 (-1)
Lab 33 (+2)
LD 16 (-2)
Changes since June 27th.
Quote
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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2773


YouGov for The Sun
9/8/10

Con 40 (-2)
Lab 36 (nc)
LD 15 (+2)
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2010, 06:12:58 PM »

I wonder if this "House prices are up! The sky is falling!" narrative from the media will have much effect on the polls.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2010, 04:03:26 PM »

Wednesday's YouGov:
CON 41% (-1)
LAB 37% (-1)
LDEM 15% (+1)

Government approval: 41 (nc)/40 (+1)

Narrowest approval spread to date.
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