UK Opinion Polls Thread

[afleitch]

I'm happy with it to remain here (hopefully Peter agrees) Al is not a big fan of having these things in the International Elections board but I think a 'rolling thread' with discussion should be established.

[afleitch]

ComRes

CON 40
LAB 27
LIB 18

[afleitch]

ComRes

CON 40
LAB 27
LIB 18

Which leaves 15 for others. Which, ahem, stretches credibility somewhat. Almost as the fact that it was done by a polling company with such a dreadful track-record and with so little credibility that they had to change their name a while back.
 
While we're talking bilge polls, various useless polls were published on Sunday and can be found here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1075 (who the hell are "BPIX"?). Other than to sell papers, I don't get the point in all the dodgy polls by dodgy firms seen over the past week. It isn't as though we'll learn anything.

They are all hairs on the same brush. You can't really escape that even if you treat every pollster as 'dodgy' (the only one that is is BPIX which isn't a member of the council) Even polls comissioned by parties really can't pull numbers out of their own ass as they have to abide by certain rules. What % lead the Tories have is meaningless but it is now outwith the margin of error. They lead Labour by a comfortable (but only just majority enducing) margin comparable with what we were seeing before April and Labours 'I'm off' post-Blair period.

The main difference between then and now is that the Tories may have led the polls but the internals on trust, economy etc still weighed in Labours favour. That has been overturned.

People on both sides were blinded by the need for a 'Black Wednesday' moment. We've not had one, we don't need one or should expect one. It wasn't needed to throw out the Liberals after a decade of strong economic growth. At present it's looking like a slow 'death by a thousand tiny cuts' for the current government.

[afleitch]

I'm not complaining that polls are showing the Tories leading (they would certainly win the popular vote if an election was held today; denying that would be nothing short of delusional).

I just don't like rubbish polls that tell us nothing interest/nothing likely to accurate (except by chance) and that seem to be churned out in a vain hope of bolstering flagging newspaper sales. A poll that, for example, shows "others" on 15% is clearly not credible, even if it is correct in showing the Tories ahead.

High 'others' in opinion polls often occurs immediately after a 'big' event before the polls settle again and they shrink back to below 10%. It's very much part of the 'ouch' factor when many loyalists become disenfranchised with the party for a short period of time. I'd be worried if we weren't seeing it after the week Labour has had (and as a result in the next round of polls we may see a 'deadcat bounce' for Labour as they correct themselves) If there is high SNP support on Scotland that could count for 3 or 4% of the others.

[afleitch]

Based on the ComRes poll (for fun) and the probabilistic forecast we would see the following

CON 347
LAB 229
LIB 44

[afleitch]

New YG poll. Filtering it through SM produces a Conservative majority of 100 (92 with UNS).
Even a Labour hack like myself is getting a bit pessimistic and I've sold off all my Labour contracts until they fall a bit lower.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-100/

Good lord! I had no idea I've not been checking the polls. Goody goody. I'll punch in another map to celebrate

[afleitch]

Could someone tell me the purpose of the Lib Dems?  I just don't see it.

Comedy.

The moment the Lib Dems work out what they are for then they will dissapear in a puff of smoke due to some paradox.

[afleitch]

All I can say is that if Labour can get a majority of 66 on a 36% share, the Tories can hold a majority with less than 40%. Chuck the swingometer in the bin. Why?

I have a feeling British politics is about to 'reset' itself back to before the rise of the Lib Dems, the Labour victory, the Tories landslides and even the SDP. If you look at the maps of elections from the 50's to the 70's there is remarkable stability in the seats won by each of the parties, and in the areas both geographic and demographic. While much of this is still apparent I have a feeling older voting habits will re-establish themselves. It won't mean the Tories winning seats in Liverpool but I think we will see huge swings in some seats and minute ones in others that will see some changes in fortune

It has happened to an extent in isolated seats already; the Tory gains in Putney and Weston Super Mare in 2005 for example. Cameron and Brown (and probably Clegg too) will win over different voters than they have done in the recent past. Any 'revert to type' voting would hurt Labour more than the figures would at first suggest. It is far easier for the Conservatives to win an outright majority on a small national swing than it appears.

[afleitch]

YouGov have rolled out another one. No 'ups or downs' on this one as i'm not sure what sample size has been used for comparison

CON 43
LAB 31
LIB 16

The main focus of the poll is on Mr Brown now holding a 'dissatisfaction' rating of 60%. It was 27% in July and 48% in October.

[afleitch]

Polls this late in the year? Normal people aren't thinking about politics right now, dearies. Wait until the New Year.

And if the polls in the New Year are still bad, will we be recommended to wait until the spring?

I think we can throw some caution to the wind Al. These polls are not 'worthless' because they do show a great deal of consistency. The Conservatives are holding leads of 10+% reaching 20 year highs. These polls have came in the two weeks after the supposed Brown policy 'relaunch.' What must worry Mr Brown is that if one more fiasco rocks the government (watch this space with the foreign prisoners memo) Labour could dip below 30% and struggle to pull back up. This shouldn't be happening; Brown was supposed to boost a rather tired government. Although, as PB.com have mentioned, the current poll ratings are following a similar pattern to the responses to the hypothetical Brown v Cameron matchup before the succession. While it would be foolish for any moves to be made against him, the possibility of an 'agreement' that he will not lead the party at the next election remains high. It may not swing the election in Labours favour should current trends continue but it could soften the blow and allow the party some post-election breathing space.

What Cameron did in his first two years was 'decontaminate' the Conservative brand. What he did after the summer low was decontaminate himself to such an extent that personal attacks (and 'class' bashing) on Mr Cameron have all but ceased. Even the Daily Mirror have stopped raking through his outside bin

It was noted on PB.com that Camerons own approval, as well as his partys, tended to rise when Cameron was in the media spotlight. Since the conference he has taken a fairly low profile, only really appearing at PMQ's (hence the style of debate to be found there) The cardinal rule when a government is in crisis is not to pop up too often to tell the public what they can already see for themselves.

[afleitch]

All polls outside election time are worthless (almost by definition)

I'd disagree there; polls during election time can magnify short term issues in the news and ignore long term trends. If taken to excess, as they were in 1992 they can blow up in the polsters face (In 2005 they were more frequent and, were roundly successful with the exception of the BES and Populus ones IIRC) I don't see polls as worthless and I think they are a better gauge of public opinion than holding a general 'feeling.' If I was to revert to that I'd probably say if the public were paying close attention to politics at this time of year, 32% would be pretty generous! In
fact the only time of the year the public do regularly pay close attention to politics, is during conference season when polls are most likely to be guff.

[afleitch]

Message see what Australian Labor did.

* They neutralised perceived weaknesses, by agreeing with Government policy on popular issues

* They highlighted their differences on issues that people don't like.

...and it worked like a dream.

The "it's time" factor is hovering in the UK too, Brown may be different to Blair, but he was by his side the whole time. So he's never going to be free of the connection.

I would agree with that. The Conservatives have not opposed for oppositions sake on many issues under Cameron (and likewise with Howard). I also think that the electorate are tiring of the government. It's not to be unexpected after 10 and what will be at least 12 years by the next election. The economy is not looking rosy, but keeping it chugging along is simply expected these days. There hasn't been a European wide recession for over 15 years. In Australia the economy was sluggish but ticking over yet the Coalition lost. The message to those who bleat on about the economy is simple;

If people elected a government solely on who manage a growing economy, or encouraged economic growth then Howard and the Coalition would have been re-elected and Major and the Tories would have been re-elected in 1997

If people are sick of the government everything the government does right doesn't matter and everything it doesn't do right is magnified. Our government is heading that way. Only in retrospect will we know if it has in fact already reached that point.

[afleitch]

ICM out with

CON 39
LAB 34
LIB 18

Compared with the last Guardian ICM poll, the Tories are up 2, Labour up 3 and the Lib Dems down 1. However there was also a NofTW poll by ICM after that.

ICM seems to be having fun with some internals.

It's Labour 40, Conservative 38% in the 'North' with the Tories up 12 pts and Labour down 7 pts since August

In 'Midlands and East', The Tories lead 48 to 32. In the 'South' they lead by 53 to 23. Labour lead in London with 39 to 38

For Scotland and Wales all the Guardian has said is that the Tories are up 3 pts since August with the SBP leading in Scotland by 39 to 36

Only in Scotland and Wales has the Tory revival faltered: the party is up just three points since the summer. But Labour is also in trouble in Scotland, trailing the SNP by three points, 39% to 36%.

[afleitch]

ComRes completes the polling picture for December

CON 41 (up 1)
LAB 30 (up 3)
LIB 16 (down 2)

[afleitch]

They released a poll on Christmas Eve?!?!!?

Civilisation is dead.

Fieldwork was before then, but they should be the last to report. Bear in mind for some consistency polling companies that release one a month don't hold back just because it's Christmas. Polling mid-month is just to messy for them it seems :/

[afleitch]

YouGov show a 26 point Conservative lead

CON 49%: LAB 23%: LD 17%

[afleitch]

Seems more-than-a-little implausible (and I don't buy it), except as confirmation that the government isn't exactly in a good shape right now... which is obviously true.

Fwiw another polling firm had something like 40, 29, 20 the other day (don't recall the exact figures, can't be bothered to check). Which is probably, more or less, what a General Election held today would look like if me readings of the local results is right.
I do hope we don't get another silly rush of rushed-polls in sunday papers... though I suspect that we will, just to piss me off.

Oh it's definately an indication and that's it; it's similar to the crazy polls of the '94-'97 period. However, if it is history repeating itself then it tells us two things. Including 'swing back' to Labour the Tories are heading towards government. Secondly, they may be heading towards a landslide. Which gives us two years, at the most of a lumbering and flaking government. If 10+ point leads for the Tories continue if I were Labour I'd dump Brown in the autumn; there's nothing to be lost or gained in keeping him.

What makes today different from 1995 is that we are in an economic slowdown, not a boom. The upswing in the economy post 1993 was one of the strongest the UK had experienced since the war and the Tories had 4 years of it but they still lost big. Secondly, post-devolution Labour have lost power in Scotland and now London. If the SNP honeymoon lasts, or 'anyone but Labour' syndrome kicks in, Labour could suffer a significant blow in Scotland. The SNP ideally say they want to win 20 seats at Westminster which is not as fantastic an idea as it sounds.

[afleitch]

I'm wondering if YouGov were smoking something in that poll .

The Man From G.O.P.- I'd say the 1983 period, but it's a guess.

Late 1981 to early 1982, when the Alliance was over 50% in the polls, maybe, although some of the polls in 1995 might have had Labour that far ahead.

Labour last had a 26% lead in April 1997. The Labour showing; 23% is the lowest since late 1981. It is the Tories highest lead since 1968

[afleitch]

Let's see how far we've come since I last asked this....



How long till Brown is gone?

I think Labour will stick with him until the election; they don't really have any good replacements, and few will want to put their careers on the line.

I would like Brown to stay, simply because at the moment he is the Tories best electoral asset, more so than David Cameron.

[afleitch]

Take it or leave it but YouGov report Labour on 23% which is apparently the lowest rating the party has had in the history of opinion polling. Question is...can they go lower?

[afleitch]

Such numbers, if they happen, won't be "real" (in the same sense that this one isn't) except insofar as they would be (and this one is) an indication that the government is somewhat-less-than-popular.

Numbers like these for the Tories in '95 weren't real of course. But it did indicate they were going to get humped. We only know that 30% was the low water mark for the Tories after the landslide election. Some have presumed Labour is somewhere between 26-30%, but we've never had a Labour government for this long before. So again, we won't know until after the votes are counted (presuming they do get humped)

The only saving grace for Labour is the performance of the Lib Dems. A more capable leader and firms like YouGov (who poll Lib Dems on the low side) could have showed Labour in 3rd.

[afleitch]

We only know that 30% was the low water mark for the Tories after the landslide election.

That's true, but then that isn't really saying a great deal; there was no chance that the Tory number in an actual General Election on that sort of turnout would be any lower than that. Easier to say with hindsight than at the time, perhaps, but still true.

What I'll note here is the stability of local election results over the course of the present Parliament; true there was a noticable swing to the Tories this year compared to 2006 and 2007 but it wasn't massive or in any way dramatic (now some of the results it produced were a little dramatic, but that's because in the world of low turnouts in local politics if you lose a few hundred votes in every ward you can easily end up losing most of your seats. It doesn't take much actual movement to produce huge changes in local elections) and the general voting patterns broadly fit those of 2006 and 2007. And yet over this period there have been huge swings in the opinion polls, almost every few months or so. The polls show an incredibly volatile electorate, something which does not fit in at all with the relative stability of local elections. I've come to the conclusion that most of the movement in polls over the past few years has not been "real" and would not have been reflected, much, in a hypothetical General Election held at just about any point over the course of the Parliament.

So just out of interest, where do you believe things stand at the moment? Level pegging with 2005? I don't quite understand what you mean when you say the movement in polls over the past few years have not been 'real', particularly when we have had results that broadly reflect such poll movements. Polls for both London and Scotland never quite hit the mark (and that goes without saying, considering the methodology), but they did  reflect the trend that produced results that roughly matched the direction of the polls (i.e an SNP and Boris win from Labour) I would certainly think that much can be gauged by the trends in poll movements as opposed to the raw figures. Raw %'s can be thrown to the wind, but there has certainly been noticeable trends that the polls have picked up.

[afleitch]

Ipsos Mori show Tories breaking 50%

CON: 52%
LAB: 24%
LIB: 15%

'Tis a silly poll but...

Seat forecast on a uniform swing

CON 488
LAB 121
LIB 13

CON MAJ 326

[afleitch]

Ipsos Mori show Tories breaking 50%

CON: 52%
LAB: 24%
LIB: 15%

'Tis a silly poll but...

Seat forecast on a uniform swing

CON 488
LAB 121
LIB 13

CON MAJ 326

Desperate Spinner: our vote is holding up! This is the first Mori poll in months that it's not fallen further off a cliff! Recovery!!!!!

A Different Desperate Spinner: 121 seats is a whole 69 more than we managed in 1931; and boundaries then were more favourable to us than they are now!!!!

But, seriously...

I heard that the LibDem figure was actually 12%. Not that it matters; this isn't a poll done to measure public opinion so much as it is to change the opinions (in a newsworthy direction, whatever that is) of a small group of people next week or so. I know, I know, I'm a dreadful (to paranoid) cynic about that sort of thing, but this time the chances of me being wrong are rather small. Especially given the source, so to speak. I guess we'll see more polls like this over the next few days, but hopefully not quite so comical.

It's all good fun. It has the Tories winning Glasgow North for example. I think it's as wrong as the 50%+ Labour got in polls in '95-'96.

However...

I think it points to movement towards the Conservatives that should see it form the next government. It is also pointing towards Mr Cameron being given a landslide (at around the same time the economy picks up which we will, of course take the credit for even if we had nothing to do with it as all governments do ). This will probably be enough to secure Mr Cameron two terms.

I'm a bit like Pym when it comes to landslides, but I can't deny one would be nice to experience.

[afleitch]

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.