UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

Put them here by all means, but I'll still be reviewing UK polls on my thread on a weekly basis

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

ComRes

CON 40
LAB 27
LIB 18

I don't doubt the Tories are ahead but I'd need to see more polls from other pollsters to back up whether a 13% Conservative lead is for 'real'. Apparently, the Conservatives lead Labour among every demographic apart from 18-24s and Scotland and on that I'm sceptical

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

New YG poll. Filtering it through SM produces a Conservative majority of 100 (92 with UNS).
Even a Labour hack like myself is getting a bit pessimistic and I've sold off all my Labour contracts until they fall a bit lower.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-100/

It's more a feeling of becoming depressed unutterably rather than pessimistic

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls this late in the year? Normal people aren't thinking about politics right now, dearies. Wait until the New Year.

I know . Much as I enjoy chewing over them, it's pretty well off conducting and releasing them this close to Christmas. Surprising as it may seem, even I like to switch off once a year

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

They released a poll on Christmas Eve?!?!!?

Civilisation is dead.

Fieldwork was before then, but they should be the last to report. Bear in mind for some consistency polling companies that release one a month don't hold back just because it's Christmas. Polling mid-month is just to messy for them it seems :/

Fieldwork was completed on 16 December, in effect three days before that of the latest ICM and YouGov, so, as far as I'm concerned, it should have been released Saturday, at the latest.

Releasing a poll on Christmas Eve is pretty well off

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I've given up commenting on UK polls, I'm depressed enough

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Labour needs a miracle

[Democratic Hawk]

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but are there any actual policies where the Conservatives differ substantively from the Labour Party?  Or are they simply a lighter shade of red, ideologically speaking? 

There are days I wonder whether Labour are simply a lighter shade of blue. A pox on all their houses. The state of British politics is appalling. The pits

[Democratic Hawk]

No General Election until all is revealed by the expenses enquiry. Lets just see who exactly has been abusing the system before we throw the bums out

[Democratic Hawk]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/johnson-would-deny-tories-outright-victory-1700167.html

Johnson would deny Tories outright victory

Exclusive: 'Independent' poll reveals that new leader could transform Labour's prospects

Tuesday, 9 June 2009

By Andrew Grice, Political Editor

Alan Johnson would deny David Cameron an overall majority at the next general election if Labour ditched Gordon Brown and installed him as prime minister, according to a new poll for The Independent ...


... Independent poll: Which leader would put the smile back on Labour's face?

Alan Johnson, Home Secretary

Man most likely to succeed Gordon Brown if he is toppled before general election.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 36% Labour 26% Lib Dems 19% (Con six seats short of majority.)
Support among Labour identifiers: 76%

Jack Straw, Justice Secretary

His withdrawal of support could finish Brown.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 36% Labour 25% Lib Dems 19% (Con majority of 10)
Support among Labour identifiers: 71 per cent

David Miliband, Foreign Secretary

Raised profile last summer but campaign faltered
Election result with him as leader:
Con 37% Labour 25% Lib Dems 19% (Con majority: 30)
Support among Labour identifiers: 73%

Jon Cruddas, Backbencher

Turned down ministerial job and enjoys support on left of party.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 36% Labour 22% Lib Dems 21% (Con majority of 42.)
Support among Labour identifiers: 69 per cent

Ed Balls, Schools Secretary

Brown's favoured successor. Ambition to become Chancellor.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 37% Labour 23% Lib Dems 20% (Con majority of 46)
Support among Labour identifiers: 67 per cent

Gordon Brown, Prime Minister

Hoping to see off plotters as Cabinet did not join revolt
Election result with him as leader:
Con 38% Labour 22% Lib Dems 20% (Con majority: 74)
Support among Labour identifiers: 71 per cent

Harriet Harman, Deputy leader

Would be strong candidate in full-scale leadership contest.
Election result with her as leader:
Con 38% Labour 22% Lib Dems 20% (Con majority of 74)
Support among Labour identifiers: 67 per cent

James Purnell, Former cabinet minister

Blairite who quit as Work and Pensions Secretary last Thursday. Would win respect if Brown was ousted.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 38% Labour 21% Lib Dems 21% (Con majority of 94)
Support among Labour identifiers: 66 per cent

[Democratic Hawk]

On the day Nick Clegg delivers a gaffe filled PMQs, YouGov brings us:
44 (+1) - 35 (nc) - 13 (-1)

Lowest for the LibDems from YouGov since 16th November 2007.

It's a wonder the Conservatives aren't pushing Cameron to throw Clegg under the bus and go to the country

[Democratic Hawk]

Good numbers. I like this government.

Good for the Conservative side of the coalition, not so much for the Liberal side.

Ipsos-Mori Poll:

National Government - 54% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 14%)
Labour - 38%
Others - 8%

I wonder when we'll see a Labour lead.

We don't see this very often, but, the Conservaties lead Labour by 3 (38-35) among all (81%) giving a voting intention; while 32% (+4)*, generally, think of themselves as being Conservative; 31% (n/c), Labour; 14% (-7) Lib Dem; and 23%(+3), Other None

* Change on April 2010

[Democratic Hawk]

Yougov 23/08/2010:
Latest net government approval rating 0 (40% approve, 40% disapprove)

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41% (nc), LAB 39% (+1), LDEM 12% (nc).

39% is the highest Labour's had form YouGov since 21st September 2007.

His Sneering Arrogancy, of course, might get a baby "bounce" but Cleggover ain't fairing too well

[Democratic Hawk]

Yougov 23/08/2010:
Latest net government approval rating 0 (40% approve, 40% disapprove)

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41% (nc), LAB 39% (+1), LDEM 12% (nc).

39% is the highest Labour's had form YouGov since 21st September 2007.

His Sneering Arrogancy, of course, might get a baby "bounce" but Cleggover ain't fairing too well

Of course, Dave's paternity leave should bring some more good Cleggy gaffes.

Of course, it hadn't occurred to be that He Who Reeks of an Acute Stench of Entitlement That Often Comes With Privilege would be on paternity leave

I was asked recently if my opinion of Nick Clegg had changed. It has. Pre-election I'd thought Clegg was an idiot, I am now absolutely certain that he is an idiot

[Democratic Hawk]

Many Lib Dems seem to want Nick to take a more "aggressive" approach in articulating their party's values because right now he seems all too willing to play the role of some 'compliant wife'. If it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, in all probability, it is a duck

[Democratic Hawk]

Many Lib Dems seem to want Nick to take a more "aggressive" approach in articulating their party's values because right now he seems all too willing to play the role of some 'compliant wife'. If it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, in all probability, it is a duck

If they wanted to remain a separate entity, they shouldn't have entered the coalition with all but one of their MPs agreeing. If they're so annoyed, get a new leader.

There must be a lot of people who feel "duped" by the Liberal Democrats voting their way because they believed they were a centre-left alternative to Labour

[Democratic Hawk]

Or, to quote Bremner, Bird and Fortune people watched the first debate and just thought "...who is that man standing next to Gordon Brown? Y'know, I want him to be prime minister."

Aye, "Cleggmania" . Fed the ol' ego a bit didn't it?

[Democratic Hawk]

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/bkmm9p70rl/YG-Archives-Pol-SundayTimes-results-27-290412.pdf

Diabolical numbers for the blues in there. This double-dip's done them no good, obviously. The gap on net approvals between Cam/Mili has narrowed from a 23% "lead" for Dave, to just 7%. Ed'll soon be the least hated. Peter Kellner saying that only comparable collapse was for Gordon Brown when he flunked the election that never was.

32% blame the Tory-Liberal cuts, compared to 17% who blame Brown Labour. Stick a fork in them, they're done.

The one thing I'd say that is on the Coalition's side is time. Much could happen for better   or worse   between now and May 2015

Am I better off than I was two years ago? Yes (nothing to do with the government) and no (much to do with the government)

[Democratic Hawk]

YouGov Welsh poll:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-17906118

Topline voting intention figures are as follows:

Westminster (change since 2010 GE): CON 23% (-3), LAB 50% (+14), LD 7% (-13), PC 12%(+1)
Welsh Assembly constituency (change since 2011): CON 19% (-6), LAB 48% (+6), LD 7% (-4), PC 18% (-1)
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13% (-10), LAB 33% (-4), LD 9% (+1), PC 22% (+4)
Local elections (change since 2008): CON 17% (+1), LAB 48% (+21); LD 7% (-6); PC 14% (-3); Independents and Others 15% (-12)