Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott could be in trouble soon, no?

If Abbott hasn't rebounded within the next few months, there will be TREMENDOUS internal pressure...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Especially as this is self-inflicted to a very considerable degree...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Especially as this is self-inflicted to a very considerable degree...

Abbott's combination of small-target policy strategy and strong negativity works when people aren't happy with the Government... but considering public perceptions of the PM and the Government are improving... he needs to turn to policy and in a positive fashion as quickly as possible if he still wants to be leader by the election.

The ALP could spook the Coalition into action by sounding like they're going to an election in March/April... which is the earliest was can expect an election, although, the earliest a normal election could be called is August 3.

[RogueBeaver]

The polls seem to be rather bouncy depending on whether they're conducted early or later in the month, at least recently. If this trend continues and dare I say, Lab takes the lead then Abbott will be in deep trouble. So I'll wait a bit before worrying. Agreed w/Polnut and CS. However worst-case, who'd replace Abbott? Can't replace someone with no one. Nelson and Turnbull faceplanted as leader already, so  guess that leaves Hockey?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-22/gillard-surges-ahead-as-preferred-pm-in-nielsen-poll/4325840

This marries relatively well with this poll from a week ago...

Primary vote
ALP: 34% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (-2)
Greens: 10%

TPP
ALP: 48% (+2)
Coalition: 52% (-2)
... that's a 12% shift to the ALP since June...

However, that is based on 2010 preference flows...

The Essential something or other had the same 48-52 result, based on 2010 preferences, but asked deeper about preferences and found the ALP picked up another point to 49-51..

Approval
Gillard: 47%
Abbott: 37%

Disapproval
Gillard: 48%
Abbott: 60%

Preferred PM
Gillard: 50 (+7)
Abbott: 40 (NC)

[morgieb]

ER still has it at 54-46, but their methodology is weird.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ER still has it at 54-46, but their methodology is weird.

That's true, I heard it on the radio in the car... it was all part of the poll discussion, so I probably got the discussion confused.

[RogueBeaver]

Rinehart's family drama continues.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/rinehart-dispute-to-kick-into-new-year-20121107-28yid.html

[Frodo]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-22/gillard-surges-ahead-as-preferred-pm-in-nielsen-poll/4325840

This marries relatively well with this poll from a week ago...

Primary vote
ALP: 34% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (-2)
Greens: 10%

TPP
ALP: 48% (+2)
Coalition: 52% (-2)
... that's a 12% shift to the ALP since June...

However, that is based on 2010 preference flows...

The Essential something or other had the same 48-52 result, based on 2010 preferences, but asked deeper about preferences and found the ALP picked up another point to 49-51..

Approval
Gillard: 47%
Abbott: 37%

Disapproval
Gillard: 48%
Abbott: 60%

Preferred PM
Gillard: 50 (+7)
Abbott: 40 (NC)

If Julia Gillard is re-elected as Prime Minister next year, would it be safe to conclude that Australians would have accepted the carbon tax, thereby rendering it no longer an issue?  

[RogueBeaver]

Even if Abbott wins he can't repeal it or the mining taxes without 39 Senate seats, which he might never get. Certainly not at this election.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The polls seem to be rather bouncy depending on whether they're conducted early or later in the month, at least recently. If this trend continues and dare I say, Lab takes the lead then Abbott will be in deep trouble. So I'll wait a bit before worrying. Agreed w/Polnut and CS. However worst-case, who'd replace Abbott? Can't replace someone with no one. Nelson and Turnbull faceplanted as leader already, so  guess that leaves Hockey?

Nelson resigned from the house in 2009, so he's not coming back, and although he's more popular than Abbott. I can't see Turnbull coming back, considering that unlike John Howard, how who did come back as Liberal leader in 1995, Turnbull never led the Liberals to an election.

So if the Liberals are to change leader before the next election, which isn't too likely in my opinion, I can see Hockey becoming leader.

Even if Abbott wins he can't repeal it or the mining taxes without 39 Senate seats, which he might never get. Certainly not at this election.

Sadly, I think you're on the money here, RogueBeaver. Unless the Coalition wins 38 and does a deal with the DLP or Nick Xenophon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So.... new Nielsen poll on the carbon price.

Support: 39% (+6 since CP was introduced)

Oppose: 56% (-6 since 1 July)

Are you?:
Better off: 3% (no change)
Worse off: 38% (-13% since 1 July)
No difference: 59%

Not surprisingly, the numbers for repeal and retention mirror the support/oppose numbers exactly.

[RogueBeaver]

Same poll has the Coalition at 53/47 and  Abbott's personals down to -24. Plus a couple of rebuffed attempts with star candidates recently.

[Frodo]

PM Gillard would be wise to call the election at the latest possible date (Nov 30, 2013).  Her fate is tied to the carbon tax -when it breaches 50% approvals sometime next year, she'll be good to go. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think if Gillard goes ANY later than say late-September... it'll look like she's waiting until the last reasonable chance... which is a terrible look - see Howard in 2007.

I think the role of the carbon tax is being a little overstated, will it play a role? sure. But will it play the central role the Coalition hoped 6 months ago? No. I doubt you'll get to the point of having 50%+ approval of carbon price, more than likely, it'll go into a coin-toss kind of situation, with support/oppose fighting each other in the mid-late 40s. Which, if you combine that with a parallel drop in support for repeal AND people continuing to not feel any real impact at all... does negate its political weight quite a bit... but certainly not potent enough for the Coalition to run a campaign on.

[RogueBeaver]

No political gain and no means of repealing it in the first term. (Could they cut the rates substantially as a first step?) This defensive policy crouch is quite unhealthy to say the least.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No political gain and no means of repealing it in the first term. (Could they cut the rates substantially as a first step?) This defensive policy crouch is quite unhealthy to say the least.

The issue is trying to scale back the investments and buying back credits, let alone deciding to reduce the value outside of the Aust/EU market, when that comes on line in 2015... will be VERY expensive and it will be messy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/impressive-gillard-attack-narrows-target-for-critics-20121126-2a30p.html

It seems that whenever the Coalition tries to make this an issue, it's provides another opportunity for Gillard to be at her best.

[Phony Moderate]

Has any leader as unpopular as Abbott ever managed to win a federal election? Keating was in the 30s in 1993 and Peacock won the popular vote in 1990 while in the 20s IIRC.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Has any leader as unpopular as Abbott ever managed to win a federal election? Keating was in the 30s in 1993 and Peacock won the popular vote in 1990 while in the 20s IIRC.

Which is why I think the preferred PM number will be important here, especially when combined with the clear personal unpopularity he... enjoys?

[Vote UKIP!]

Gillard has called it...

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/15567685/gillard-declares-its-the-end-of-the-world/

If you need me, I'll be in my bunker.

[RogueBeaver]

This is what happens when you throw anything remotely controversial overboard and run on anti-incumbency/Generic Party. Since Abbott has nothing to say on policy, he's stuck with this sort of stuff.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/attack-dog-methods-bite-coalition-leader-20121216-2bhkp.html

[Platypus]

The poll at the bottom of that article is craaaazy.

"Is Tony Abbott a liability for the coalition?"

Yes: 98%
No: 2%

...so, I assume that means there's a very low sample size, right?

124,980 voters.

I'm not aware of any concerted facebook campaign, and I probably would be if one existed, to skew this poll.

Obviously it's not scientific, but it's definitely not good.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is what happens when you throw anything remotely controversial overboard and run on anti-incumbency/Generic Party. Since Abbott has nothing to say on policy, he's stuck with this sort of stuff.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/attack-dog-methods-bite-coalition-leader-20121216-2bhkp.html

But that's the whole point of Abbott... he's an attack-dog, he's an ideologue who wants to win... but, while he's a bright guy, he doesn't have a policy brain.

He became leader in 2009 by ripping down his own leader from the inside, and did the same to a Prime Minister by playing on fears and being unrelentingly negative... without promising a policy beyond "we'll undo what you don't like" - Abbott became leader and was an effective opposition leader because he was a negative and aggressive figure.

The 'small target' strategy worked for the Coalition in NSW, VIC and QLD... focus on the unpopular incumbent government, focus on them, and avoid releasing ANY policy that could distract the public. The problem is, the Carbon Price was meant to be their golden ticket... but with its power weakening by the month... and the government, and the PM in particular, less on the nose... they need to seriously adjust the tactic. The problem being, very few people actually buy it when they try.

Gillard was as unpopular as the party was six months ago, Abbott is now markedly more unpopular than the party... that isn't a helpful place to be in a party like the Liberal Party, where personal leadership is such a massive element.

[RogueBeaver]

Truth be told I think Abbott is more of a values pol than anything. But it goes beyond him... as I said, the Coalition lost their policy nerve 5 years ago and show no sign of getting it back under anyone currently floated for leadership. I hope Howard has made his views known privately about this.