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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 249696 times)
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #375 on: February 26, 2012, 07:16:48 PM »

This Liberal Party mixing up their metaphors.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Cj6w83yueM
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #376 on: February 26, 2012, 07:18:52 PM »

Caucus is everything. Rudd's an ass, and everything else aside, why have an ass as leader when you can have someone who at least goes through the motions, maybe even genuinely cares, about your opinions and feelings? Just from the average backbencher's POV.


Recount? Dunno why... not like the result will change.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #377 on: February 26, 2012, 07:19:07 PM »

Confirmed: Gillard - 71-31! My prediction was right!!!!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #378 on: February 26, 2012, 09:10:09 PM »

Can Rudd now fyck off and retire quietly?
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #379 on: February 27, 2012, 12:18:23 AM »

Rumour that Senator Mark Arbib has resigned as Senator and Minister

Bit odd... I was of the impression he backed the successful candidate.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #380 on: February 27, 2012, 12:42:13 AM »

Leaving to promote healing and renewal.

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Platypus
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« Reply #381 on: February 27, 2012, 10:15:29 AM »

No more Arbib? Excellent.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #382 on: March 12, 2012, 04:36:45 PM »

First post-spill Newspoll... a mix of news.

Primary
ALP: 31% down 4%
Coalition: 43% down 2%
Greens: 12% up 1%

TPP:
ALP: 47% - steady
Coalition: 53% - steady


Preferred PM
Gillard: 39% up 2%
Abbott: 37% down 1%

Satisfaction
Gillard: 28% up 2%
Abbott: 32% up 1%

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 62% down 2%
Abbott: 58% up 1%
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #383 on: March 12, 2012, 04:49:29 PM »

That's within a point of 1996's results. Cool.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #384 on: April 28, 2012, 03:53:54 AM »
« Edited: April 28, 2012, 03:55:57 AM by Smid »

Ongoing problems for the federal government.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #385 on: April 28, 2012, 11:22:16 AM »

That's not a matter of confidence, though still embarrassing.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #386 on: April 28, 2012, 08:23:38 PM »

And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #387 on: April 28, 2012, 08:24:28 PM »

And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.

Has Tony Abbott demanded a General Election over this yet?
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #388 on: April 28, 2012, 08:27:17 PM »

And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.

Has Tony Abbott demanded a General Election over this yet?

I remember when Cameron demanded a general election every other week during the Brown Government. Of course, Miliband can't do that because of the fixed terms bill.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #389 on: April 28, 2012, 08:43:34 PM »

And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.

Has Tony Abbott demanded a General Election over this yet?

I remember when Cameron demanded a general election every other week during the Brown Government. Of course, Miliband can't do that because of the fixed terms bill.

A variation of the old "noun, verb, 9/11".

A noun-A verb-A demand for a General Election. The extent of Tony Abbott's rhetoric.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #390 on: April 30, 2012, 07:39:32 PM »

Latest poll... and it's UGLY

Primary
ALP: 27% (-2)
Coalition: 51% (+3)
Greens: 11% (-1)

TPP
ALP: 41% (-3)
Coalition: 59% (+3)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 36% (-2)
Abbot: 41% (nc)


What is clear to me is this, the Government has not been able to combine the public dislike of Abbott to the vote his party receives. Which is a reverse of the way it usually works. The Coalition is a far more hierarchical party, generally if the leader is unpopular, the party goes down. Which represents a HUGE failure of the Government.

The Government is putting its faith in a) the benefits of the carbon price (ie getting more back than you're going to pay out) and confidence in the economy...

However, the hatchet job the Coalition have done to denigrate the most stable economy in the Industrialised world is quite remarkable.

This is being combined with the tactic employed by the NSW and QLD Oppositions before their landslides. Small target, attack the Government, but don't put policies that will put the focus on you... and it works.

The Government has ONE shot, and one shot only...
1. do not get rid of the PM - it reeks of desperation, and likely just sacrifices a potential future leader
2. Focus on Abbott - you cannot win this by being completely positive - people are starting to switch off - give them a reason to listen to you
3. You have a BRILLIANT record to run on, but seem unable to capitalise on it. FIRE your PR people and get new people in, now.
4. Create a circuit-breaker... it's what saved Howard in 2001 when he was facing certain doom... force the Libs to take a position on a high-profile issue...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #391 on: April 30, 2012, 10:01:16 PM »

Mayday, GQ, 5-alarm fire, whatever metaphor you want to use.

Green's swingometer doesn't swing that far, but 57/43 translates to 109-38-3.
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Vote UKIP!
MasterSanders
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« Reply #392 on: May 15, 2012, 03:30:12 PM »

It seems altogether likely that we may see an election in Australia this year.

Because of the crisis the Gillard government is facing, it seems that Abbott is the prime beneficiary, since he may ne elected PM by simply not being Gillard.

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #393 on: May 15, 2012, 03:39:36 PM »

No, Gillard will let the clock run out.
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Vote UKIP!
MasterSanders
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« Reply #394 on: May 15, 2012, 03:58:00 PM »


That supposes the independents don't bail out on her.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #395 on: May 15, 2012, 03:59:34 PM »


That supposes the independents don't bail out on her.

And lose their seats a year earlier than scheduled? I think not.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #396 on: May 16, 2012, 12:59:34 AM »
« Edited: May 16, 2012, 01:05:20 AM by President Polnut »

Latest Newspoll... slight Budget bounce for ALP

Primary
ALP: 30% (+3)
Coalition: 45% (-6)
Greens: 12% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 45% (+4)
Coalition: 55% (-4)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 36% (NC)
Abbott: 40% (-1)

It's not in Gillard's nor the Independent's interests to have an election... which, even if Gillard goes down without one... Abbott would certainly want immediately.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #397 on: May 28, 2012, 09:08:06 PM »

New newspoll, continued 'positive' trend for the Government... Abbott's personal numbers drop to 2009 lows...

Primary
ALP: 32% (+2)
Coalition: 46% (+1)
Greens: 12% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 46% (+1)
Coalition: 54% (-1)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 40% (+4)
Abbott: 37% (-3)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 30% (+3)
Abbott: 31% (-3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 60% (-3)
Abbott: 60% (+4)


So... brief analysis...

Abbott's attacks on Craig Thomson appeared to have back-fired, amplifying the Coalition's biggest single weakness, Tony Abbott's aggressive style.

So in the last month
Primary
ALP: +5
Coalition: -5

TPP
ALP: +5
Coalition: -5

Preferred PM
Gillard: +4
Abbott: -4
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #398 on: May 28, 2012, 09:12:47 PM »

IF (the worker visa thing this week may have a negative impact next fortnight) the government can get to 34-35% and get the coalition down to maybe 42-43%... this becomes a horse-race for the first time since the election...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #399 on: May 30, 2012, 06:57:45 PM »

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-31/gillard-faces-down-mining-bosses/4043276

This is certainly one of Gillard's biggest policy pluses... it's one of her genuinely popular issues... she needs to drive it home and put Abbott on the wrong side...
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