Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Truth be told I think Abbott is more of a values pol than anything. But it goes beyond him... as I said, the Coalition lost their policy nerve 5 years ago and show no sign of getting it back under anyone currently floated for leadership. I hope Howard has made his views known privately about this.

Yes and no... remember, he was privately personally opposed to WorkChoices and backed it all the way as Minister. Abbott isn't a values politician, such as in the US, he's much more pragmatic than that, he's against abortion, but knows it's a political untouchable ... so won't talk about it. Abbott is at his heart a political scrapper, and it doesn't really matter what it's about, he'll do whatever it takes to bring down the opposition and win the fight. Which, is a valuable role as a head-kicker, but you can't be a head-kicker and seen positively by the Australian public...

If you go back to the beginning of the party in 1945, look at the leaders and what that means for the party overall. The most successful leaders; Menzies, Holt (pre-drowning obviously), Fraser and Howard re-made the party in their image and had an idea of where the party was going, even BEFORE they became PM. Then look at the unsuccessful leaders, even those who were PM, Gorton, McMahon, Peacock, Downer, Nelson, Turnbull and also why Costello never happened... because they need to lead from the front, Abbott has a strategy, which could still be successful, but it will be more to do with the Government, than any kind of Abbott policy framework... because it doesn't exist.

The Liberals knew the Abbott would be a huge risk, hence why he only won the leadership by a vote, against a leader that was unpopular and mistrusted by many. It was a successful experiment for a while, but I know for a fact, a lot of people inside the Coalition are saying "we probably lost 2010 because of unease over Abbott, do you think they're going to give MORE votes to us now?"... Winning an election IN SPITE of the leader is a tough, tough ask.

[RogueBeaver]

I meant in the sense of principles but no policies. As for leadership, the choice was between a risk and a proven failure. There's a mold but none of the current leadership cadre fits it... will have to wait for the next generation.

Abbott will win but as I said a victory by default. Since he can't repeal in his first term, he'll have to try back doors and balancing the budget. Otherwise just running Labor's machine.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wouldn't bet large amounts on Abbott winning just yet... a year-six months ago, I'd have been there with you. But not now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wayne Swan FINALLY dumped the pledge for a Budget surplus. When everyone, including international economists, political commentators AND international credit agencies, like S&P said the Budget cuts required to achieve it are more likely to hinder growth and development.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-20/swan-dumps-surplus-pledge/4438508

It was totally unnecessary and undermined the Government for the last 3 years.

[Barnes]

What's the likelihood that Adam Bandt actually keeps his seat in the next election?  I would assume it's not very high, but you never know...

[morgieb]

What's the likelihood that Adam Bandt actually keeps his seat in the next election?  I would assume it's not very high, but you never know...

Depends on preferences really.

[Leftbehind]

What has he done to lose it? Or was it always going to be difficult to hold?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What has he done to lose it? Or was it always going to be difficult to hold?

It's a naturally ALP seat, albeit with a Greens bent.

He won, largely, due to a protest vote against the ALP - much like Andrew Wilkie. My money is that both of those seats 'go home' next year. Six months ago, the Greens polling in Melbourne was very solid, but as the ALP's prospects rose nationally, and the ALP at the state-level got a lead against the Lib Government, his prospects have slid dramatically... having said that, there was a big swing against the Greens here in the ACT and we're among the most Green-friendly cities. I think the Greens hit their high watermark in 2010... at the expense of the ALP.

IF and it's a huge IF, the Liberals direct preferences to Bandt he 'could' win. But I would doubt it.

[Knives]

Yeah, not to mention he's a whiny bitch.

[You kip if you want to...]

What has he done to lose it? Or was it always going to be difficult to hold?

It's a naturally ALP seat, albeit with a Greens bent.

He won, largely, due to a protest vote against the ALP - much like Andrew Wilkie. My money is that both of those seats 'go home' next year. Six months ago, the Greens polling in Melbourne was very solid, but as the ALP's prospects rose nationally, and the ALP at the state-level got a lead against the Lib Government, his prospects have slid dramatically... having said that, there was a big swing against the Greens here in the ACT and we're among the most Green-friendly cities. I think the Greens hit their high watermark in 2010... at the expense of the ALP.

IF and it's a huge IF, the Liberals direct preferences to Bandt he 'could' win. But I would doubt it.

I don't see why Coalition voters would anyway if he's just another vote for PM Gillard in the House.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well that was how he won, a big drop in ALP primary vote and strong Liberal preferences. The Libs would MUCH rather a Green the PM needs to negotiate with over an ALP vote who won't challenge anything.

[Frodo]

Crikey is predicting that the upcoming federal election (the deadline is Nov 30) will occur in September.

Thoughts?

[Smid]

Crikey is predicting that the upcoming federal election (the deadline is Nov 30) will occur in September.

Thoughts?

Not the weekend of the grand final of AFL our NRL. Antony Green has an article on it, too.

[morgieb]

Crikey is predicting that the upcoming federal election (the deadline is Nov 30) will occur in September.

Thoughts?

Think October is more likely.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In Australia, there are a number of periods that are traditionally avoided for elections. Primarily because they know it will piss people off.
* Any time between mid-December and early February (Christmas, people going on holiday)
* The weekends of the AFL/NRL finals (late Sept-Early Oct)
* Easter (basically any long weekend)

My bet is, she pulls the trigger at the end of the Budget session for a late August poll or mid-October. Regardless, she cant be seen to be leaving it to the last moment, which was probably the last nail in Howard's coffin in 2007.

[RogueBeaver]

If current polls hold up she might play for time- not to win, but for triage and succession purposes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If it gets to September and it hasn't been called, there will a horrid narrative. In fact, once the 3rd anniversary passes on 21 August the pressure will be on.

I say she has to call it by August, or else the story will be 'Gillard afraid of election' which is what happened to Howard.

[RogueBeaver]

Narrative's pretty bad already (), but agreed on August.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Narrative's pretty bad already (), but agreed on August.

Frankly... it's the best it's been in two years...

[RogueBeaver]

Last Newspoll was 54-46... back to where things started. If Labor loses cleanly (but no QLD wipeout with Rudd and Swan losing), then who do you think would take the leadership?

[Platypus]

Terror mode: Nicola Roxon

Bad mode: Bill Shorten, Stephen Smith, Greg Combet, Wayne Swan

OK mode: Simon Crean, Tanya Plibersek

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My thoughts would be Crean in a caretaker mode situation, and then Roxon. If it's a hung parliament, Gillard may stay on even if the ALP doesn't form government.

[Dereich]

Terror mode: Nicola Roxon

Bad mode: Bill Shorten, Stephen Smith, Greg Combet, Wayne Swan

OK mode: Simon Crean, Tanya Plibersek

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My thoughts would be Crean in a caretaker mode situation, and then Roxon. If it's a hung parliament, Gillard may stay on even if the ALP doesn't form government.

Why would Roxon be so bad?

[Knives]

Roxon is by far one of the best leaders we'd have, she's effective and incredibly smart - we'd be lucky to have her as our PM. Listening to her speak if amazing, and if Gillard wins next election but Swan loses she'd be a great deputy which their is a high chance that, that could happen.

[Platypus]

...said no-one, ever.

[Knives]

...said no-one, ever.

Besides you're obvious disdain for her left views, what is wrong with her?