Australia General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Of the realistic candidates I'd say Shorten should be the one Coalitionists hope for, given how gaffeomatic he is. (Which is why I doubt he'd get it, particularly after the "ministerial salary isn't high enough" thing) I know Combet was a major player in the WC war, but otherwise what's he like in terms of skills and ideology? Smith- heard mixed things about him. Swan strikes me as a hardnosed e-rat but he's the Tax Guy, closely tied to Gillard and publicly nuked Rudd last year. Plus his seat is far from safe.

What about the faceless men- specifically the House ones? What's their skillset or ideological leaning? Just curious if any of those younger guys might be interested in stepping from the shadows and becoming king rather than powerbroker.

[Platypus]

...said no-one, ever.

Besides you're obvious disdain for her left views, what is wrong with her?

It's not actually her leftism, it's her populism that grates, followed by the fact that she would lead Labor to a bollocksing against even Abbott, and finished off with the way she treats her staff.

Then the leftovers are the fact that she's an ideologue but without a cause I can believe in, and her lack of appeal skyrockets.

---------

Honestly though, I can see her becoming leader, but I can't see her becoming PM. I'd say that's a good thing, except it would mean Labor losing to a PM Tony Abbott, and there is absolutely no excuse if Abbott gets in for it not being a one-term government.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Not forgetting that Roxon's personal style is VERY similar to Rudd... except occasionally, Rudd smiled. Hugh's point is there, how you treat your staff is a good indication of your personal style. Gillard is very good to her staff and even the departmental people like her, Roxon was someone NOBODY wanted to deal with.

She's competent, tough and smart... but she's not a leader.

The issue about the polling is important... I don't deny there's been a slip, but in the quarterly Newspoll, which came out on 29 December (more respondents, longer time period) the Government is still behind where they were in August 2010. BUT, they've increased their primary vote in Queensland by 10% in 6-months, have a solid lead in Victoria and are level-pegging or behind everywhere else.

The one thing I'll warn the Abbott -fanciers about (why anyone would be is beyond me) is this, in 2001 and 2004, at this stage in the game, Howard was behind by the same margins, or worse than Gillard is now... election years tends to be the most prone to wild-swings and inaccuracies. So, consider the polls, but be mindful not to put too much stock in them. In 2004, the last week's polling has the ALP ahead 51-49, except one... which was far too friendly to the Coalition 54-46... and the result? Coalition 53-47...

[RogueBeaver]

Didn't hear about that particular Newspoll, but nor do I think Abbott will have a 1996-style victory.

[You kip if you want to...]

Not forgetting that Roxon's personal style is VERY similar to Rudd... except occasionally, Rudd smiled. Hugh's point is there, how you treat your staff is a good indication of your personal style. Gillard is very good to her staff and even the departmental people like her, Roxon was someone NOBODY wanted to deal with.

She's competent, tough and smart... but she's not a leader.

The issue about the polling is important... I don't deny there's been a slip, but in the quarterly Newspoll, which came out on 29 December (more respondents, longer time period) the Government is still behind where they were in August 2010. BUT, they've increased their primary vote in Queensland by 10% in 6-months, have a solid lead in Victoria and are level-pegging or behind everywhere else.

The one thing I'll warn the Abbott -fanciers about (why anyone would be is beyond me) is this, in 2001 and 2004, at this stage in the game, Howard was behind by the same margins, or worse than Gillard is now... election years tends to be the most prone to wild-swings and inaccuracies. So, consider the polls, but be mindful not to put too much stock in them. In 2004, the last week's polling has the ALP ahead 51-49, except one... which was far too friendly to the Coalition 54-46... and the result? Coalition 53-47...

I swear the ALP was at like 54% as well when Gillard called it in 2010. Only reason it was close was because the ALP ran such a dire campaign (And the Coalition's was quite good).

[Knives]

Is everyone looking foward to the Lib wipeout in Victoria?

I am.

[morgieb]

Is everyone looking foward to the Lib wipeout in Victoria?

I am.

Unconvinced. There's still nearly two years to go.

[Platypus]

At state level? I don't even think they're likely to lose, let alone be wiped out.

At federal level?

There is no excuse for Labor not aiming to win at least 3 seats off the coalition in Victoria at the federal election.

[Knives]

They're down by 10% state wide, people here are over Ted and Victoria has traditionally been one of Labor's stronger states. Ted isn't going to win another term.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

First Newspoll of 2013... all my caveats on election-year polling understood?

Primary vote
ALP: 38% (+6)
Coalition: 43% (-2)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 49% (+3)
Coalition: 51% (-3)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 45% (+2)
Abbott: 33%

Satisfaction
Gillard: 38% (+2)
Abbott: 29% (+1)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 49% (-3)
Abbott: 58% (-1)

[Platypus]

They're down by 10% state wide, people here are over Ted and Victoria has traditionally been one of Labor's stronger states. Ted isn't going to win another term.

Victoria is traditionally one of Labor's worst states, actually; the last decade was much more the exception rather than the rule. The difference is that our right wing is most state's center, and our left has always been divided one way or another, but still, Victoria is not a Labor state necessarily.

As for if he'll win, basically Labor are making themselves the smallest target possible in hope of wining on a protest vote. As they only need to win one or two seats, it's a smart strategy. But it isn't guaranteed to win, and it certainly isn't likely to be with a 10% gap at the end of the day.

[Knives]

Libs have barely had power in Victoria since the 80's.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Libs have barely had power in Victoria since the 80's.

....1992-1999

[Platypus]

...and 2010-2013 and counting.

[RogueBeaver]

Huh? I don't see this going well if Downer does jump in. When was the last time a big federal name successfully transitioned to state politics?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/alexander-downer-close-to-making-call-to-lead-south-australian-liberals/story-e6frgczx-1226555452184

[morgieb]

I would've thought Downer was yesterday's news. Obviously not.

[Benj]

John Howard has a pro-gun control Op-Ed in the NY Times today. Thought someone here might find that interesting. Also reflects how poorly other countries understand American politics, though (not that that's unique to the US or anything).

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/opinion/australia-banned-assault-weapons-america-can-too.html?hp

[Platypus]

He had something very similar published in around August last year, btw.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Howard's been on the record on that subject numerous times during his travels in the States. And he knows perfectly well how the politics work out. Needless to say I'm happy he's still politically engaged even if I disagree with him on this particular issue.

Back to Draft Downer: SA and federal Liberals are keen on this.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/01/17/anyone-but-isobel-downers-comeback-might-have-legs/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Howard was right on guns, and the evidence showed it worked.

Simple as that.

[morgieb]

Yeah, guns are one of the few issues where Howard was right on IMO.

[Frodo]

Australia does have some curious minor parties.  Here's one,

http://www.sexparty.org.au/

and its Mission Statement:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What's 'wowserism'?

[Smid]

Here is a bit of a dictionary of Australian words (link goes through to "W" for "Wowser").

Also recently listed is The Pirate Party

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Australia does have some curious minor parties.  Here's one,

http://www.sexparty.org.au/

and its Mission Statement:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What's 'wowserism'?

The Sex Party got preferences from me before the Christian Democrats did...

[Platypus]

And before the CEC for me.

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Social mode:
Smid: replying to your PM now.
Polnut: Up for a couple of drinks tomorrow night?