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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 249694 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #625 on: February 01, 2013, 09:30:03 AM »

Two unexpected departures... Senator Chris Evans will be resigning from Cabinet tomorrow and the Senate in two months AND it's breaking that the Attorney-General may also be resigning from Cabinet and also will not seek re-election in September.
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Knives
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« Reply #626 on: February 01, 2013, 09:48:34 AM »

Roxon resigning is a major loss for Labor and Australia.
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Hifly
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« Reply #627 on: February 01, 2013, 04:27:24 PM »

Roxon resigning is a major loss for Labor and Australia.

Why?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #628 on: February 01, 2013, 04:30:51 PM »


I don't think so... but that's just me.
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Knives
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« Reply #629 on: February 01, 2013, 07:12:17 PM »


She's incredibly smart.
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Hifly
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« Reply #630 on: February 01, 2013, 07:55:13 PM »


Can you do any better than that?
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Platypus
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« Reply #631 on: February 01, 2013, 08:14:05 PM »


And me.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #632 on: February 01, 2013, 08:36:01 PM »


And me, but I'm not Australian. Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #633 on: February 01, 2013, 08:39:44 PM »

She's rather granola-ish, amirite?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #634 on: February 01, 2013, 10:11:33 PM »


Oh God, yes, she's of the left... but not rampantly so...

I'm not a fan of her because she's personally quite unpleasant.
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morgieb
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« Reply #635 on: February 01, 2013, 10:23:59 PM »

Isn't Roxon a member of the Right?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #636 on: February 01, 2013, 10:30:30 PM »


Actually, you're right.

She has quite left-wing views, but in many ways, she's old-school labor, albeit with a left-social bent.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #637 on: February 06, 2013, 08:53:08 PM »

Trish Crossin fires back at Gillard, says she was unfairly dismissed and not even given a patronage post. Dunno why Gillardites would switch: isn't like Rudd is particularly huggable either, as they all know.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/national/im-offering-you-nothing-julia-gillards-response-to-dumped-senator-trish-crossin/story-fndo4gtr-1226572146614
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #638 on: February 06, 2013, 10:28:09 PM »

How exactly was this move supposed to benefit Labor? If the intent was to save Warren Snowdon by pandering to Aboriginal peoples by having one of their own (who doesn't even primarily live in the Northern Territory according to a few sources) on the ticket, it doesn't seem to be working out to well.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #639 on: February 06, 2013, 10:40:30 PM »

No idea. Another person damaged by the mess is Peris, since Crossin alleges that Gillard did this for less-than-pure reasons. ALP takes a hit all-around.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #640 on: February 06, 2013, 10:42:31 PM »

It wasn't wise... it's a judgement call.

God help me for saying this... sigh...

I agree with Alan Jones. He was interviewed last night and said "if she wanted Peris in the Senate so badly, why not move her to WA, where she knew Chris Evans was going to stand down a year ago"... it's hard not to agree with the logic.

As for Snowdon, a friend is an adviser in his office and I don't know if he lives in Alice full time... he seems to spend an awful lot of time there.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #641 on: February 13, 2013, 11:54:02 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2013, 11:57:25 PM by Former President Polnut »

Rumbles about a challenge against Gillard in March...


A friend of mine this morning told me that Simon Crean, a BIG supporter of Gillard had dinner with Rudd and other Rudd backers last night. I then saw this was in a news story this afternoon.

Also other friends in Labor MP offices tell me that there are certainly 'informal discussions' going on.

I think they know March is their last chance...


EDIT: same people tell me Gillard's lost a lot of support since last February. She'd win a leadership ballot, but it would be too close and wound fatally wound her AND them.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #642 on: February 14, 2013, 01:37:35 PM »

I'll believe that a challenge happens when I see it. If no challenge in March then they'll wait till post-election, depending on whether Rudd and/or Swan lose their seats.
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #643 on: February 14, 2013, 01:42:38 PM »

What a lovely narrative that'd be for them to go into the election with.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #644 on: February 14, 2013, 01:54:31 PM »

"We aren't sure who we want as leader: depends who has better poll numbers on a given day." Tongue
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #645 on: February 14, 2013, 05:57:28 PM »

"We aren't sure who we want as leader: depends who has better poll numbers on a given day." Tongue

Well, the numbers at the moment internally aren't as universally bad as the public polling, I'm told. But they're down where it matters.

What I think would be the preferred situation is for Gillard to know a challenge is coming, but knowing that she'd win it by a margin that is so tight that her position would be untenable. Knowing that it would cripple the party electorally, she'd step down voluntarily so to avoid said blood-bath.

But because there is a core of the parliamentary party who can't stand Rudd, the likelihood of this scenario happening without similar levels of damage is small.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #646 on: February 14, 2013, 06:24:13 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2013, 06:26:16 PM by RogueBeaver »

You really think Rudd's numbers would hold once the shine wears off and everyone remembers why he was ousted to begin with? Plus the optics of restoring an overthrown leader, one who's already been publicly nuked (*coughSwancough*) by some of his party's most influential people? I certainly don't think so. Ads go up, numbers go down, yet again people start pining for a switch. Gillard has to take the bullet, like Howard in 2007.
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Frodo
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« Reply #647 on: February 14, 2013, 06:26:43 PM »

What's the fate of the carbon tax in the event the Liberal-led coalition under Abbott regain power?  I presume they will at least try to repeal it -will they succeed?  What's the likelihood? 
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #648 on: February 14, 2013, 06:29:48 PM »

They can't repeal it de jure without Senate control, which would take a couple of cycles if ever. What he could do is gradually reduce the rate with corresponding cuts to compensate- de facto repeal. Doubt that happens though.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #649 on: February 14, 2013, 06:35:37 PM »

You really think Rudd's numbers would hold once the shine wears off and everyone remembers why he was ousted to begin with? Plus the optics of restoring an overthrown leader, one who's already been publicly nuked (*coughSwancough*) by some of his party's most influential people? I certainly don't think so. Ads go up, numbers go down, yet again people start pining for a switch. Gillard has to take the bullet, like Howard in 2007.

You're not thinking the way the Australian people thought of him. He was still relatively popular when he was dumped AND people see him as a wronged man, they don't see the revelations from a year ago as a bad thing for Rudd. Despite him being an ill-mannered, micromanaging prick. If there's one thing Australians can't stand, it's when they see someone being treated (as they see it) unfairly. Do I think that'll hold until an election... honestly? Yes. That's if any transition is handled well.

Which I doubt will happen, because I don't think there's the balls to challenge Gillard right now, and their window is closing.

What's the fate of the carbon tax in the event the Liberal-led coalition under Abbott regain power?  I presume they will at least try to repeal it -will they succeed?  What's the likelihood?  

Virtually none. They'll still have a largely unfriendly Senate, I don't see them gaining enough seats to even allow the 2014 Senate make up to help them. Plus the costs of undoing the carbon pricing scheme and back-pedaling out of the deal with the EU are very high.

I'll make a potentially bold prediction, if Abbott wins, he'll tinker with the carbon price, but he won't get rid of it.
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