Australia General Discussion

[Platypus]

Rudd won't come back. If Gillard doesn't face the election, and she will, the replacement might be someone who brings Rudd back in to a position of power, but the leadership is just too much. My guess is that a neutral party would be selected, with Rudd taking Foreign Affairs, and then once they lose he retakes the leadership.

Who the neutral party would be... Crean seems to be positioning himself for it, but I'd suspect they'd go with Smith. Snore. But snore is better than Abbott

[Platypus]

Independent Senator Nick Xenophon has been detained as a security risk at the Kuala Lumpur airport, before he was due to meet with opposition leaders.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Welll....

Christine Milne decided to announce that the official alliance between the ALP and the Greens (the Watermelon Coalition) is effectively over.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-19/milne-says-labor-has-reneged-on-agreement/4527252

They'll continue to guarantee supply... but this just puts a lot more pressure on Gillard. It doesn't actually make a lot practical difference... but the optics are terrible.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I spoke to a friend in the ALP whom I trust and the mood in the party is truly terrible. Not only is it terrible, but there is a total sense of resignation to their fate. Basically, their view is that people have stopped listening.

But as Malcolm Turnbull said on Q&A this week, 'the hatred of Rudd is strong than their sense of political survival'...

[Knives]

Meh, I'm hoping they and the Greens are wiped out.

I'd love to see a true Socialist party rise from the ashes with no alliegiance to anyone.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Thankfully that'll never fly in Australia... And I have a hard enough time liking anyone enough to vote for.

[RogueBeaver]

If they want to look on the bright side, what they've done will probably remain untouched and they won't be forced immediately onto the policy defensive like when Howard came at them like a freight train with WRA, waterfront reform and the early Budgets. But yeah, otherwise pretty terrible.

[Hifly]

A recent poll has shown that Labor will lose both Blaxland and Chifley, which are safe seats held by margins of over over 12/13%. I wonder if this massive swing extends to Eastern Sydney and electorates such as Kingsford Smith (held by Peter Garrett).

[RogueBeaver]

Where? Last Newspoll had 55-45. If true... that's not 1996, more like 1975/7. Still no way to flip the Senate this cycle.

[Talleyrand]

A recent poll has shown that Labor will lose both Blaxland and Chifley, which are safe seats held by margins of over over 12/13%. I wonder if this massive swing extends to Eastern Sydney and electorates such as Kingsford Smith (held by Peter Garrett).

Could you give a link to the poll in question?

And hasn't single electorate polling in Australia been not trustworthy in the past? If so, these results seem quite suspect, unless redistribution somehow made these seats significantly more marginal for the Labor Party.

As for Kingsford Smith, it sits on a margin of only about 5%, so perhaps it wouldn't be that stunning were it to go Liberal later this year.

[Hifly]

The poll was conducted by Fairfax/ReachTEL and surveyed 2550 voters over 4 western sydney electorates.

[Hifly]

Both McMahon and Werriwa were also polled (and are lost to the Liberals)
http://www.smh.com.au/data-point/wipeout-in-the-west-voters-want-rudd-20130301-2fbru.html

Another poll was conducted in Wayne Swan's seat of Lilley in Queensland.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/swan-will-lose-seat-without-rudd-as-labor-leader-poll-finds-20130303-2fe27.html

[Talleyrand]

I'm not surprised that Wayne Swan's on track to lose his seat at the current rate, but these results will have to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt. I could take these results to be much more valid had Fairfax/ReachTEL polled them straight up, instead of asking hypotheticals "With Gillard as PM" or "With Rudd as PM". That's almost certainly skewing these results.

For example, in Chifley, the results with Gillard show the Libs at 54% of 2PP, while with Rudd, they drop to 42%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think a LOT of this comes down to Western Sydney being VERY different to what it was 15 years ago. Personally, Garrett's seat is a lot safer (it goes in a uniform swing, but the swing won't be uniform) than a couple of those Western Sydney seats.

[Platypus]

Seat-by-seat polling is bad, but it's also bad polling in general. Still, the sample sizes are sufficient.


Basically, Labor will lose three to five seats in Sydney, the question becomes where they can find them to make up. I can't see it unless they do better in QLD and Vctoria than they're doing, and neither is likely.

[Knives]

TED IS GONE!!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

TED IS GONE!!

Who'd a thunk that at the end of today Terry Mills is still Chief Minister in the NT and Ted Baillieu is gone?

[You kip if you want to...]

But... but... but...

Mr. Abbott told me it was only the meanies in Labor who stabbed leaders in the back during their first term just because the polls didn't look nice. Oh Tony .

I thought the Liberal party could never do this.

[RogueBeaver]

Howard for Yarralumla? I'd think age and the precedent of appointing an ex-PM would kill this idea.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/push-among-libs-to-pick-howard-for-yarralumla/story-e6frgd0x-1226589465804

[LastVoter]

Meh, I'm hoping they and the Greens are wiped out.

I'd love to see a true Socialist party rise from the ashes with no alliegiance to anyone.

So that Labour forms a coalition with Liberals like it happens in Germany?

[Hifly]

The Western Australia Election is tomorrow (or today if you are in Australia ). The Liberals under Barnett are expected to win a landslide victory.
A poll today from Newspoll for The Australian shows that the Liberals/Nats are leading Labor 2PP 59.5% to 40.5%, which will allow Labor to lose around half its seats.

[You kip if you want to...]

First post-spill poll from Victoria has Dan Andrews ahead on preferred Premier.

[Knives]

The Western Australia Election is tomorrow (or today if you are in Australia ). The Liberals under Barnett are expected to win a landslide victory.
A poll today from Newspoll for The Australian shows that the Liberals/Nats are leading Labor 2PP 59.5% to 40.5%, which will allow Labor to lose around half its seats.

Actually most predictions don't predict too much change.

[Frodo]

That was a bigger-than-expected victory for the Liberals in Western Australia -does anyone think they can replicate it in South Australian elections next year?  

[Hifly]

The Western Australia Election is tomorrow (or today if you are in Australia ). The Liberals under Barnett are expected to win a landslide victory.
A poll today from Newspoll for The Australian shows that the Liberals/Nats are leading Labor 2PP 59.5% to 40.5%, which will allow Labor to lose around half its seats.

Actually most predictions don't predict too much change.

And you're wrong.