Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Simon Crean please.

I supported Gillard taking over from before it was a real possibility, and I'm glad she did. I've supported her fully, until about yesterday. But the last week has shifted my view, to the point where now the number one concern has to be stopping an Abbott win, and particularly an Abbott win with huge numbers. I don't know who can do that, but I now think it can't be Gillard, and that's a shame.

Crean? why not just keep Gillard on rather than the "oh, we're ready to go, just got the old boy on to steady the ship before we go down"...

[RogueBeaver]

But, but, DO SOMETHING.

[Platypus]

I think Crean is a neutral figure. He would be the most effective at putting the attention firmly on Tony Abbott, which is the only way the government can win. There's nobody on the labor side who wouldn't be seen as a desperation move, so if you're going to do it, choose someone who can't be criticised for lack of experience or knowledge. With Crean, the message could work that he was a safe pair of hands for Australia, was a skilled politician, but was more importantly a skilled and highly knowledgeable governor. Contrast a perhaps dull but unquestionably capable Crean with Abbott, and Labor can win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Crean is not that capable... he was a chaotic opposition leader and from dealing with his office and with him personally now... it doesn't strike me as a good move.

[Platypus]

Chaotic as opposition leader how? He was certainly dull, but he also started the process of reforming the ALP, something that needed to happen and couldn't have under someone like Latham or Rudd.

I'm partly supporting him because he went to both my primary school and high school, to be honest, but he also has a very strong history ofdoing what is best for the party, including most relevantly stepping down from the leadership at a point that his colleagues wouldn't have forced him to.

I suppose that you will have butted heads with him and his staff in your job, so fair enough... but is he as bad as most ministers? And would he be worse than Abbott?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Chaotic as opposition leader how? He was certainly dull, but he also started the process of reforming the ALP, something that needed to happen and couldn't have under someone like Latham or Rudd.

I'm partly supporting him because he went to both my primary school and high school, to be honest, but he also has a very strong history ofdoing what is best for the party, including most relevantly stepping down from the leadership at a point that his colleagues wouldn't have forced him to.

I suppose that you will have butted heads with him and his staff in your job, so fair enough... but is he as bad as most ministers? And would he be worse than Abbott?

I had a feeling it was a parochial thing.

His office is certainly in the bottom 25% when it comes to effectiveness and efficiency... his advisers are among THE WORST I've ever come across.

I don't have a strong objection to him... as a person... but I do worry about his ability to drive an agenda. Slow and steady won't win this race... he needs to change things.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The rumour of a 4pm caucus meeting was allegedly spread from Coalition sources... it is not happening.

[RogueBeaver]

Internals might be hidden again.

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/sa-poll-showed-rudd-was-rebounding-before-2010-coup/story-e6frfkp9-1226601984968

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Im on record as saying Rudd was going to win in 2010. His removal had the polling as window-dressing, it was the power-broker's hatred. They smelled weakness and went for the kill.

Now, Rudd was a nightmare as PM, but his caucus never liked, let alone loved him... ever.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd still sticking to the draft line, but didn't Gillard do the same in 2010? Just waiting for the numbers to appear. The real problem is policy and I haven't heard disagreement from Rudd on the taxes, media laws or anything else. Same as 2010.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kevin-rudd-resisting-pressure-to-move-on-leadership/story-fn59niix-1226602044671

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No... Gillard flat out denied it (she famously said the weekend before that she was more likely to play for her favourite AFL team before becoming PM). The lack of a 'The Prime Minister has my full support and while I appreciate the enthusiasm from some about a change of leadership, Julia Gillard should and will lead us to the election" tells us Rudd wants the leadership handed to him.

Rudd's mining tax was a lot tougher and actually would have gotten the revenue predicted, during the leadership scuffle of a year ago, Rudd's position on carbon pricing was to move to the ETS faster (which is what the Libs will do any way)... plus the Libs are talking less and less about the carbon price, they know its not the killer issue it was a year ago, plus it opens them up to questioning they really don't want.

[RogueBeaver]

Gillard being assured she has 55 votes "minimum." But everyone agrees the margin is dwindling. If Rudd wants it he'll have to break a factional dam or 2. No luck on that thus far. Then the media stuff will go down tomorrow.


http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/16410795/pm-has-numbers-to-beat-rudd/?cmp=twitter

As for taxes, that leaves the revenueless mining one.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

But as I've said before a challenge where the sitting PM barely has a majority of the caucus is virtually the same as losing one.

ANY chance for a political comeback, save for external crises (see 2001) would be vapourised. Look at both Hawke and Thatcher, anything beyond an emphatic mandate means they'll have to go, if not then, then soon.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't disagree with you on that. But her chance will be vapourized in September anyways. As for 2001... on the Coalition side? From what I understand Costello was never remotely close. Feel free to correct me of course.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No no, not that situation. Were it not for Tampa and 9/11 then the Coalition more than likely would have lost that election, and badly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Simon Crean was VERY honest in his media conference that just ended.

Basically he said the media games and deliberate destabilisation needs to stop and threw his lot in with Gillard.

[RogueBeaver]

Simon Crean was VERY honest in his media conference that just ended.

Basically he said the media games and deliberate destabilisation needs to stop and threw his lot in with Gillard.

But his position has always been that he supports the incumbent. Hardly news.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Simon Crean was VERY honest in his media conference that just ended.

Basically he said the media games and deliberate destabilisation needs to stop and threw his lot in with Gillard.

But his position has always been that he supports the incumbent. Hardly news.

Interestingly, when asked why he isn't being considered in the mix... his answer "I don't have the numbers"...

It is very strange for such a senior minister to not only discuss internal matters but go after their colleagues in public.

[RogueBeaver]

There's a different story circulating about Crean: to quote Sir John A. Macdonald, he may be a "loose fish." Back Rudd, bring some key Gillardites over in exchange for Deep?

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/simon-crean-may-back-kevin-rudd-in-leadership-spill/story-e6freuy9-1226602015161

[Platypus]

Crean really is the focal point here, but he won't jump to Rudd. He hates Rudd more than most, and would only do it if he thought it was the only way for Labor to win, not for him to become DPM. That said, he wouldn't say no to being the new Treasurer, I suspect.

[Platypus]

Crean really is the focal point here, but he won't jump to Rudd. He hates Rudd more than most, and would only do it if he thought it was the only way for Labor to win, not for him to become DPM. That said, he wouldn't say no to being the new Treasurer, I suspect.

[RogueBeaver]

Crean holding a presser in a few minutes.

Media bills are dead.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-dumps-media-reform-package/story-fn59niix-1226602222708

[RogueBeaver]

Crean calling for a ballot, all leadership positions being declared vacant. Said he'd run for deputy leader. Said the deadlock has to be broken. Rudd has to put his hand up. Not a personal decision. Told Gillard he'd do it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Something had to give... it's surprising HOW it happened, but not shocking that it has.

[RogueBeaver]

Supporting Rudd. Won't seek the Treasury but rather keep his current post. Not running as part of a joint ticket.