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You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #850 on: March 21, 2013, 11:35:07 PM »
« edited: March 21, 2013, 11:40:07 PM by forward '12 »

How weak is the Prime Minister of Australia as a post? It seems very small compared to the UK for example...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21863630?ocid=socialflow_twitter_bbcworld&buffer_share=6a416&utm_source=buffer

That shows some of the glaring differences between Aus and the UK in terms of the strength of party leaders.

I only skimmed through that article, but it looks like it ignores the actual structural reason for why such coups are common here: A party leadership election can be called at any time for any reason, and it can all be resolved within a few hours.  Changing party leaders in the UK is a lengthier process, is it not?  I don't recall either Cameron or Miliband taking over mere hours after their respective predecessors announced that they were stepping down.


Yeah, the UK relies more on the wider party memberships (and union membership, in Labour's case) in their leadership elections these day than the parliamentary members. Internal elections can end up being fairly pricey as well. Of course, this hasn't always been the case and before the 60s, the Tories especially had "faceless men" picking the leader.

If fact, for Labour, from what I know, any hypothetical coup is near impossible because of how strict the rules are and there's quite a lot of focus on the role of conference as well. It'd be impossible for the party to knife a leader without it being a complete, drawn-out PR disaster. I don't think the Tories could have another Thatcher situation on their hands now either since they include the wider membership in their elections now.

If we did it the Australian way, Ed Miliband wouldn't have been elected leader in the first place, Cameron would've been thrown out last summer and Clegg wouldn't have made it far into 2011. Just look at Gordon Brown, he had loads've cabinet members walk out and 'pull a Crean' and tell him to go and he still limped on (mainly because David Miliband was always to guy who 'pulled a Rudd' and got spooked at the last minute).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #851 on: March 22, 2013, 07:23:47 AM »

Labour moved away from having the PLP elect the Leader in the early 1980s (this was actually the main trigger for the subsequent creation of the SDP) and moved to an electoral college (which was further democratised in the 1990s with the introduction of OMOV in the Affiliates section: previously this section had been decided by block voting)1 but even before then you didn't have leadership challenges every five seconds. Gaitskell was pointlessly challenged a couple of times in the early sixties (Once by Wilson, once by Tony Greenwood), but these were essentially embarrassments that the Left accidentally backed themselves into forcing and were foregone conclusions.2 You basically never had a situation in which a vulnerable leader was actually challenged. The only time an incumbent Leader has been beaten was in 1922 when MacDonald defeated Clynes: but that doesn't really count as 1922 was the first 'proper' leadership election. And since 1988 (when Benn pointlessly challenged Kinnock and stupidly said that he would do so every year) it has been very hard to launch a formal challenge against a sitting leader.

Which isn't the same as saying leaders don't get forced out. Ask Blair about that.

But, basically, it's as much a question of party culture(s) as the system used.

1. As in, the General Secretary of the General & United Transport Society (or whatever) cast the votes of all his 384,938 members for them and on their behalf. The system - still used at the various Conferences - has its roots in 19th century Chapel culture.

2. And would have been under any system.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #852 on: March 22, 2013, 06:28:04 PM »

An ex-Rudd speechwriter nails it: he's a micromanaging asshole's micromanaging asshole. Basically a little man in a big job.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/beyond-the-kinginexile-20130322-2gl70.html
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #853 on: March 24, 2013, 01:50:24 PM »

Gillard blasts a certain foghorn and gets Hanson's visa policy endorsement, plus a potential Hanson candidacy, as a result. Let's see her explain this one when immigration comes up in the GE debates.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/visa-campaign-exposes-hypocrisy-in-pms-office-20130317-2g8m0.html
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MaxQue
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« Reply #854 on: March 24, 2013, 02:07:44 PM »

Pauline Hanson?
That Pauline?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #855 on: March 24, 2013, 02:24:04 PM »


Yes. Sept. 14 can't come soon enough.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #856 on: March 24, 2013, 04:49:53 PM »

Gillard blasts a certain foghorn and gets Hanson's visa policy endorsement, plus a potential Hanson candidacy, as a result. Let's see her explain this one when immigration comes up in the GE debates.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/visa-campaign-exposes-hypocrisy-in-pms-office-20130317-2g8m0.html

There will only be one debate... and Abbott can't really attack this.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #857 on: March 24, 2013, 05:32:24 PM »

Cabinet shuffle incoming.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/rudd-backer-anthony-albanese-set-for-promotion-in-labor-reshuffle/story-fnhqeu0x-1226605194922
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #858 on: March 24, 2013, 07:35:20 PM »

Do we have any idea about the other choices? I read somewhere that Jason Clare may receive a higher-ranking ministership than his current portfolio, and Gai Brodtmann and Andrew Leigh may be taken from the backbench.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #859 on: March 24, 2013, 08:32:56 PM »

Here's the full list. Albanese to Regional Development while keeping the House leadership, Gray to Natural Resources, Leigh as Gillard's PS, Combet to Climate Change, Dreyfus to Public Service and McLucas to Human Services.

http://www.news.com.au/national-news/julia-gillard-to-reveal-labor-ministry-reshuffle/story-fncynjr2-1226605337345

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #860 on: March 24, 2013, 09:24:00 PM »

Well Combet was already Climate Change, in fact, the single biggest change is the merging of the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency with elements from another department, to become the Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change and Energy Efficiency.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #861 on: March 24, 2013, 09:36:56 PM »

Is she going to be having seasonal shuffles or what? Something like the 6th time in less than 3 years. On the Coalition side, I hope there's some econodry talent lurking on the backbench thatt can be found. If not, then start recruiting. (Dare I say pull a Kroger) Can never have a deep enough bench.
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CLARENCE 2015!
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« Reply #862 on: March 24, 2013, 09:45:17 PM »

What are the chances of Tony Abbott becoming the next Prime Minister? I remember some time back that Gillard had lambasted him for being a misogynist and his party fell in the polls...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #863 on: March 24, 2013, 09:48:16 PM »

What are the chances of Tony Abbott becoming the next Prime Minister? I remember some time back that Gillard had lambasted him for being a misogynist and his party fell in the polls...

He will almost certainly be the next Prime Minister barring a complete reversal of political fortunes.
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Platypus
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« Reply #864 on: March 24, 2013, 11:43:42 PM »

DIICCEE. Not a mouthful at all.
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morgieb
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #865 on: March 25, 2013, 12:17:16 AM »

Gillard blasts a certain foghorn and gets Hanson's visa policy endorsement, plus a potential Hanson candidacy, as a result. Let's see her explain this one when immigration comes up in the GE debates.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/visa-campaign-exposes-hypocrisy-in-pms-office-20130317-2g8m0.html
Won't change a lot of votes. I don't see people switching to Abbott because they dislike Julia on immigration.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #866 on: March 25, 2013, 01:06:10 AM »

What are the chances of Tony Abbott becoming the next Prime Minister? I remember some time back that Gillard had lambasted him for being a misogynist and his party fell in the polls...

He will almost certainly be the next Prime Minister barring a complete reversal of political fortunes.

I would say it's a 80% chance he's PM on September 15... but he's only as strong as Gillard is weak. If Gillard somehow manages to regain some position, watching her press conference today... if we see that Gillard mixed with the Gillard from last Thursday... things could change.

I'm not saying this as someone who wants Gillard to win, although I do. People need to understand that Abbott's position is not an endorsement of HIM, but about issues with Gillard and the Government. Plus Abbott is not popular, and I don't see that changing... so that's the opening.

More playing devil's advocate than anything else, but just warning against making assumptions about Australian politics in an election year.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #867 on: March 25, 2013, 07:06:11 AM »

Newspoll out: 58/42 2PP, 50/30/13 primary, 29/64 disapproval for Gillard and 40/52 for Abbott.
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Knives
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« Reply #868 on: March 25, 2013, 07:07:36 AM »

Disheartening.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #869 on: March 25, 2013, 07:16:30 AM »

Crean shouldn't have been so quick on the trigger finger. Abbott also leads PPM 43/35. Not that this will be the final result, but plugging it into Green's calculator translates to 108/37.
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Knives
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« Reply #870 on: March 25, 2013, 07:28:43 AM »

Crean shouldn't have been so quick on the trigger finger. Abbott also leads PPM 43/35. Not that this will be the final result, but plugging it into Green's calculator translates to 108/37.

I think over the break Labor will definitely improve in the polls, but I'm confident they'll lose the election.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #871 on: March 25, 2013, 07:31:07 AM »

I mean, if this poll wasn't a train-wreck, I'm pretty sure everyone would wonder what was wrong with Newspoll.

The one thing you could be certain of was that this poll, after 2 pretty terrible weeks, was going to be as terrible.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #872 on: March 25, 2013, 07:52:56 AM »

The last 2PP was 56/44, not a huge difference. Mildly surprised that primary didn't go south of 30, but since things won't get worse than this it probably won't. Either way quite a few ALP MPs will have to start making retirement plans.

From my perspective, this will be a relatively hollow victory for the Coalition. Neither their leader nor policies give me any reason for enthusiasm and they'll piss away an entire governing cycle.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #873 on: March 25, 2013, 07:37:56 PM »

Does anyone have an idea how the half-Senate elections would shape up with numbers like this? I'm guessing it might mean an outright or workable Coalition majority in the Upper House in the unlikely event they hold.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #874 on: March 25, 2013, 07:47:44 PM »

Workable or outright Senate majority I'd guess.
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