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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #875 on: March 25, 2013, 08:15:54 PM »
« edited: March 25, 2013, 09:37:47 PM by Smid »
A Senate majority is unlikely - I'm pretty sure 2004 was the first time since 1979 - and it only happened at the 2004 election only after good election results for the Coalition in 2001 (where the Coalition was able to get 3 Senators elected from each state and one from each territory) and 2004 (where the Coalition was able to get 3 Senators elected from each state - and four from Queensland and one from each territory). In 2010, the Coalition failed to win half the Senate vacancies - only winning two Senators in Tasmania and Victoria. In order for the Coalition to have half the Senate seats - remembering that you need more than half to be able to legislate (since it only takes half to be able to block legislation/motions) - the Coalition would need to win four Senate seats in two states, plus three in the remainder, plus one from each territory - and that's just to end up with half the Chamber... they'd need to win four Senate seats in three states to obtain a majority.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #876 on: March 25, 2013, 09:36:57 PM »
Virtually no chance of a Senate Majority... the nature of PR makes it very difficult.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #877 on: March 27, 2013, 05:00:32 PM »
Bill Kelty is rather unhappy with the government.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/labor-members-walk-away/story-fn59nqgy-1226608136650
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #878 on: March 27, 2013, 05:28:28 PM »

Kelty is a bit like Richardson... has-beens with a need for attention.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #879 on: March 27, 2013, 05:37:54 PM »
In other news, Gillard specifically endorsed Prince Charles as the next Commonwealth head.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21952895
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #880 on: March 27, 2013, 05:41:12 PM »
Quote from: RogueBeaver on March 27, 2013, 05:37:54 PM
In other news, Gillard specifically endorsed Prince Charles as the next Commonwealth head.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21952895

Well... that's not too surprising...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #881 on: March 28, 2013, 01:41:33 AM »
PVO: Liberals are pursuing a decapitation strategy.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/libs-mission-off-with-their-heads/story-e6frg6z6-1226607965345
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #882 on: March 28, 2013, 04:22:01 PM »

Some of those targets seem pretty far-fetched to me- I seriously doubt Jason Clare will lose Blaxland, etc., but Labor will definitely lose some talent this election.

Also, it looks like Liberal Senator Gary Humphries has officially been ousted for pre-selection by ACT Opposition Leader Zed Seselja in this year's election. The Greens are hopeful they can knock off the Liberals here and gain the seat.

Link
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #883 on: March 29, 2013, 08:10:14 PM »
More interesting fare from PVO, unfortunately paywalled. Anyone have access? Anyhoo, they're about retirement planning and how neither leader measures to HK and Howard.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/election-win-is-gillards-only-chance-at-salvation/story-fn53lw5p-1226609072780

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/mps-preparing-for-life-after-landslide-defeat/story-fn53lw5p-1226609194286
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #884 on: March 31, 2013, 06:25:45 PM »
PVO reporting on Twitter that another Gillard minister is expected to *resign* from Cabinet. And the bloodletting continues.
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Knives
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« Reply #885 on: April 01, 2013, 01:50:24 AM »
Martin Ferguson supposedly just joined Twitter, if it's him it's quite hilarious.

https://twitter.com/MFergusonMP
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #886 on: April 02, 2013, 07:51:21 AM »
Quote from: Solopop on April 01, 2013, 01:50:24 AM
Martin Ferguson supposedly just joined Twitter, if it's him it's quite hilarious.

https://twitter.com/MFergusonMP

There are quite a lot of fake politicians on twitter.

My favourite was fake steve fielding, but there are others worth checking out.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #887 on: April 08, 2013, 08:13:28 AM »
Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 32% (+2)
Coalition: 48% (-2)
Greens: 11% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 45% (+3)
Coalition: 55% (-3)

Abbott remains preferred PM... not sure about the numbers.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #888 on: April 08, 2013, 10:06:28 PM »
Still on track, and Gillard dropped her super "idea."
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #889 on: April 08, 2013, 10:09:03 PM »
Quote from: Secretary Polnut on April 08, 2013, 08:13:28 AM
Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 32% (+2)
Coalition: 48% (-2)
Greens: 11% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 45% (+3)
Coalition: 55% (-3)

Abbott remains preferred PM... not sure about the numbers.

All within margin of error from previous poll, but I think this one is closer to reality than it was.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #890 on: April 08, 2013, 10:15:36 PM »
Expect that to hit 52-4 before long, since I doubt voters really want to give Abbott a late '70s mandate.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #891 on: April 09, 2013, 01:12:40 AM »
Quote from: Smid on April 08, 2013, 10:09:03 PM
Quote from: Secretary Polnut on April 08, 2013, 08:13:28 AM
Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 32% (+2)
Coalition: 48% (-2)
Greens: 11% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 45% (+3)
Coalition: 55% (-3)

Abbott remains preferred PM... not sure about the numbers.

All within margin of error from previous poll, but I think this one is closer to reality than it was.

58-42 was was probably as bad as it will get. I expect a tightening, simply by virtue of the fact it's an election year and polling (rarely) stays the same.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #892 on: April 09, 2013, 03:27:35 PM »
If the ALP can't creep up to 48-49 by election day against Tony Abbott, then they're barely fit to call themselves a political party at all.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #893 on: April 14, 2013, 07:43:24 AM »
New Nielsen: 57/43, 49/29.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #894 on: April 14, 2013, 10:49:40 PM »
Bit weird... but eh. The polls will be strange all year.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #895 on: April 14, 2013, 11:10:50 PM »
Horrible Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #896 on: April 20, 2013, 02:40:32 PM »
Fraser is still a troll.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/fraser-ready-to-counsel-abbott/story-fn59niix-1226624771510
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #897 on: April 20, 2013, 06:41:55 PM »
Yeah, the last Liberal Prime Minister who actually governed in the spirit of the party ... Abbott could learn a hell of a lot.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #898 on: April 24, 2013, 02:42:15 PM »
ANZAC Day today, so a salute to you guys from another part of the Commonwealth.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #899 on: April 25, 2013, 04:33:08 PM »
Cheers Canada Smiley
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