Australia General Discussion

[Platypus]

As an aside, my main beef with the government isn't the handling of the Indonesian situation at all, it's this tosser:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pdvp8emWwqY

[Smid]

The most interesting number for me is the total collapse of the 'other'. I'm not a polling geek, but my memory suggests that 'other' tends to rise significantly following an election and stays high until voter's minds are focussed by an election campaign. Instead, the figure has essentially halved compared to the election result, which I think may be a sign that Palmer's on the nose with his voters as much as with the rest of the country?

All in all it means very little. The Libs are never going to turf Abbott over poll numbers. The only real take-away for me is that I have gone from expecting Griffith to fall to the coalition in the by-election quite handsomely to somewhere about 50-50.

I only caught the topline numbers on the news this morning, and haven't looked at the finer detail yet. I tend to trust Nielson (my general assumption is if you get recent polls from Newspoll, Nielson and Galaxy, the real number is probably somewhere in the middle - and if two agree and one is off, the one that's off probably has a bad sample), so I'll assume this is correct, unless the next Newspoll disagrees, in which case I'll assume it's somewhere in the middle, unless there's a bounce in the next Nielson.

Having not seen the "others" poll number, I'll agree with your analysis of this figure and agree with it at face value. I may be wrong, but I also recall that "others" tend to over-poll/under-perform at the election. Same goes for the Greens, but to a lesser extent. Nationals tend to be the reverse, and I don't know why - perhaps voters in incumbent-held seats say "Liberal" when asked for their primary vote intention as a quick response, but given the Coalition Agreement, there is no Liberal candidate on election day? Anyway, I'm not sure of the reason for it, but the "others" always seem to be polling a good few percent - probably 5% above election results, Greens are often about 2% higher than election results, and Nationals about 2-3% below election results. I sort of make those assumptions in my head when looking at the numbers for myself.

I think "others" in the polls are people expressing an attitude of "a pox on both your houses" - a real protest vote of people who will end up voting one way or another on election day, but in the meantime are not prepared to support any of the parties individually reported (Liberal/Labor/Greens/Nationals). If that number has collapsed in this poll, I agree you're probably right - it's people who are looking at Clive Palmer and thinking "what an idiot" and not wanting to sound like they're supporting him. I think such people thought he was a bit of a joke before the election - he made plenty of outlandish comments and stunts during the campaign - but had rather written him off as a safe place to park a non-vote/protest vote (you can vote for Palmer as an alternative to voting informally, because he's not going to get up). Now that he's been elected, people are less willing to support him.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, 2013 was actually a strong protest vote than 2010 - it just so happens that the protest vote went from the Greens to the PUP etc. I mean, the ALP primary dropped 4.5% and the LNP only got 1.5% of it... that tells you a lot about the electorate.

The 'others' number was bound to drop after the election.

If anything, the pretty anemic response to the new Government is even stronger evidence of an anti-ALP electorate in September, rather than pro-LNP, and even strong LNP supporters I know are actually pretty horrified by how badly this lot is handling things.

And for Abbott to yet crack 50% PPM in ANY poll and in this one to have Shorten in the 40s as well, is frankly, diabolical at this point in a new term. 

[Platypus]

"And for Abbott to yet crack 50% PPM in ANY poll"

indeed. I expect him to barely creep over in newspoll, but his election was never an endorsement of Abbott nearly as much as a rejection of Labor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

TPP
Coalition: 52% (-1)
ALP: 48% (+1)

PV
Coalition: 43% (-2)
ALP: 35% (+3)
Greens: 10% (-2)

Satisfaction
Abbott: 42% (-3)
Shorten: 39% (+2)

Dissatisfaction
Abbott: 42% (+4)
Shorten: 27% (+3)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 44% (-2)
Shorten: 33% (+3)

.... yet another pretty dull poll and pretty disappointing for the LNP, they're ahead... but eh

[DC Al Fine]

Question for you Aussies:

Do you guys fill out your entire ballot or does it look more like:

[3] LNP
[1] Greens
[] Family First
[2] Labor
[] Katter's Australian
[] Palmer United

?

[Smid]

Question for you Aussies:

Do you guys fill out your entire ballot or does it look more like:

[3] LNP
[1] Greens
[] Family First
[2] Labor
[] Katter's Australian
[] Palmer United

?

The short answer is no, that would be an informal ballot at a federal election.

It would also be an informal ballot in Victorian state elections, however would be formal in Queensland and NSW state elections, which operate under Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) rules. I can't answer about the other states.

Federal rules allow one box to remain blank, so long as all other boxes have been consecutively numbered, starting with a "1" (the blank box being assumed to be the voter's final preference). In that case, a blank box doesn't act as a "wild card" though - it can't be used to substitute any missing number, only the final missing number.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Question for you Aussies:

Do you guys fill out your entire ballot or does it look more like:

[3] LNP
[1] Greens
[] Family First
[2] Labor
[] Katter's Australian
[] Palmer United

?

The short answer is no, that would be an informal ballot at a federal election.

It would also be an informal ballot in Victorian state elections, however would be formal in Queensland and NSW state elections, which operate under Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) rules. I can't answer about the other states.

Federal rules allow one box to remain blank, so long as all other boxes have been consecutively numbered, starting with a "1" (the blank box being assumed to be the voter's final preference). In that case, a blank box doesn't act as a "wild card" though - it can't be used to substitute any missing number, only the final missing number.

Coming from Western Australia myself, I can confirm you have to number all the boxes in our state elections, like you do in South Australia and the Northern Territory as well.

In the ACT, where they use proportional representation, the minimum number of preferences equals the number of vacancies in the electorate, either 5 or 7. Same in Tasmania, except all their seats return 5 members.

[DC Al Fine]

Got it. Thanks guys

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Got it. Thanks guys

No problem

[Smid]

I might also add further - the final box, although allowed to be blank, cannot have anything else in it... it either has to be blank, or have the final number in it. In the example you gave of 6 candidates: the boxes can be consecutively numbered 1-6, or consecutively numbered 1-5 and one box blank, but they cannot be numbered "1,2,3,5,6,blank" (4 is missing), nor could they be "1,2,3,4,5,99" nor "1,2,3,4,5, " (note, that frowny face is deliberate in this example).

Those final three examples there are all informal in federal elections, if my memory serves me correct (for OPV elections, the first one would be formal for the first three preferences, and the second and third examples would be formal for the first five preferences and therefore remain in the count at every step).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

Primary vote
LNP: 40% (-3)
ALP: 38% (+3)
GRN: 9% (-1)

TPP
LNP: 48% (-4)
ALP: 52% (+4)

Approval
Abbott: 40% (-2)
Shorten: 44% (+5)

Disapproval
Abbott: 45% (+3)
Shorten: 27% (NC)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 41% (-3)
Shorten: 34% (+1)


The terrible run of polls and again the PPM number is getting worse...

[Platypus]

Abbott will never have a better poll than this one.

[morgieb]

Only taken 3 months for the bottom to fall off Abbott.

At least for Rudd it took like 30.

lol

[Hifly]

The Libs still may win the Griffith by election, especially if the union-backed Social Conservative whom I like is preselected for Labor. The selection is next weekend.

[Platypus]

You really only have one note, and while I have no automatic problem with that note, after hearing it without variation 568 times I'm finally putting you on ignore. Largely because the way you play the note is designed to cause a reaction, and I don't want to react to you.

[Hifly]

Ok

[morgieb]

Gay marriage laws in ACT overturned.

I can understand the reasoning, even though I disagree with it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gay marriage laws in ACT overturned.

I can understand the reasoning, even though I disagree with it.

Exactly, this was a non-starter. It's not a decision as to the merits of marriage equality, but about the Constitutionally valid mechanism.

[You kip if you want to...]

So how long until there's a spill?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So how long until there's a spill?

The numbers would need to be a lot worse, for a lot longer before that's an option

[Platypus]

Indeed. Particularly after everything that happened with Rudd and Gillard, the Liberals would need to be in catastrophic poo to turf Abbott.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/row-puts-kevins-seat-up-for-grabs/story-fn59niix-1226782853184#

The article is paywalled, but the result of the Labor preselection vote for Kevin Rudd's seat of Queensland is expected to be announced within the next day. The big news is that the Labor Unity's members in the division have virtually all abandoned the right-wing candidate Jeremy de Lore against the wishes of higher-ups in their faction. This might give the left-affiliated candidate, Terri Butler, a slight edge, although we'll know soon enough.

[Hifly]

How many Labor Unity faction members can there be in that seat? It's a tiny faction. Labor Forum usually rules the roost.

[Platypus]

Terri Butler has won the preselection.