Australia General Discussion

[afleitch]

If anyone can give me the heads up on when Fred Nile will start procreating with his 55 year old wife, let me know.

[morgieb]

Hockey's dumped the promise of a budget surplus.

Umma.

[You kip if you want to...]

Hockey's dumped the promise of a budget surplus.

Someone in the ALP offices will be trawling youtube for something as clear cut as this from Tony.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5pzSvSCUZo

[Knives]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxq__3z9zGM

[Talleyrand]

Abbott is expected to appoint General Peter Cosgrove to replace the outgoing Governor-General Quentin Bryce.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/general-peter-cosgrove-to-replace-quentin-bryce-as-governorgeneral-report-20131226-2zx2d.html

[RogueBeaver]

Awesome.

[Platypus]

Inevitable. Better than it being Howard, for sure. Codgrove isn't as godlike as some claim, but he is a good man and will perform the role admirably.

[Talleyrand]

Western Australia State Newspoll


2PP

Liberal/National- 51% (-6)
Labor- 49% (+6)

Colin Barnett Ratings

Approve- 34% (-17)
Disapprove- 54% (+18)

Mark McGowan Ratings

Approve- 51% (+2)
Disapprove- 22% (-7)

Preferred Premier

Colin Barnett- 37% (-15)
Mark McGowan- 43% (+12)


This election is more than three years away, so we shouldn't read too much into those numbers, but the federal section is telling, and should worry the Liberals as the Western Australia half-Senate election approaches.

Western Australia Federal Newspoll

Primary Vote

Liberal- 41% (-10)
Labor- 36% (+7)

2PP

Liberal- 50% (-8)
Labor- 50% (+8)

What has Barnett done to become so unpopular?

[morgieb]

He's been around for 5 years, so it's natural he's starting to sour.

Though wrt unpopular decisions I have NFI.

[Knives]

Abbot is a major issue.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

With the Gillard/Rudd mess done away with, Abbott is returning to his natural position, a liability.

Cosgrove is a harmless choice, meh.

[You kip if you want to...]

Wouldn't be shocked if the ALP holds on in SA.

[morgieb]

Wouldn't be shocked if the ALP holds on in SA.

The momentum is moving our way, no doubt. The Liberals can thank Abbott for this.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The momentum is certainly with the ALP, while the Libs still have a comfortable lead, Jay Wetherill's popularity cannot be underestimated as a secret weapon come campaign season.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Peter Cosgrove has been named Australia's next Governor-General, due to take over from Quentin Bryce in March.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Peter Cosgrove has been named Australia's next Governor-General, due to take over from Quentin Bryce in March.

He's a solid traditional Tory, he'll do as he's told.

I did have a chat with a pretty senior military guy who served under Cosgrove in East Timor... let's just say the feedback was not glowing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We are yet to get a Newspoll or Nielsen this year... so we only have Essential, Morgan and ReachTel...

But the long story short is that the Abbott Government has received the worst recorded polling for a first-term Government, ever.

They're tied at 50-50 at the glacial Essential, the ALP is up 53-47 on ReachTel (whom I'm still deeply, deeply, wary of) and the ALP is up 52.5-47.5 on Morgan, thanks to men starting to move behind the ALP.

According to PollBludger, which actually turned out to be very accurate at the 2013 election... this is the current polling state of play.

Primary
Coalition: 39.3% (-6.3% on the election)
ALP: 38.1% (+4.7)
The Greens: 10.2% (+1.7)

TPP
Coalition: 47.5% (-6%)
ALP: 52.5% (+6)

How that plays out in seats - the state-level data is pretty bad, with massive swings in QLD, WA and VIC.

Coalition: 63 (-27)
ALP: 82 (+27)
Others: 5 (NC)

[morgieb]

Now Abbott's having a go at the ABC.

When he's going to learn that he's no longer in Opposition and doesn't need to be so tribal?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Turnbull swipes at Abbott over ABC attack.

[Frodo]

PM Tony Abbott is perhaps the best weapon that Labor could use in their arsenal to stay in power in South Australia and Tasmania. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PM Tony Abbott is perhaps the best weapon that Labor could use in their arsenal to stay in power in South Australia and Tasmania. 

The only thing that can save the ALP in Tasmania (not from a loss, because that's a forgone conclusion, but from humiliation) is the voting system that's used, which basically ensures majorities are very hard to come by and large majorities are next to impossible.

SA is a different story, however.

[Platypus]

The ALP can win in SA, but Tasmania would require an act of God (not joking here. If there was a major natural disaster, AND Giddings responded to it perfectly, it would be the only way Labor could scrape a victory.)

I actually kind of think that Labor ultimately WILL win in SA. Based on nothing but gut.

----------

The ABC is, as is entirely appropriate for the national broadcaster, biased against the government. But it's biased against EVERY government. If Abbott happens to spew more bullsh**t than Rudd (hard to imagine, but true) he'll get more negative coverage through ABC radio, tv etc.

The ABC is the *last* news organisation in Australia that should support the government of the day on anything. It needs to be the most cynical, most piercing, and most suspicious of government plans of all media outlets, or else there is no point having an independent national broadcaster.

There is a bias in it's viewership, towards the left, but this is largely because the left in Australia is slightly more likely to be interested in the Art and Culture shows that the ABC presents, is significantly more likely to be highly educated, and more interested in the in depth analytical news offerings of the ABC, and by and large, the ABC doesn't engage in right wing fearmongering unlike other media outlets.

The ABC does have some limitations that make me cringe with their assosiation with the left, though. Because it is the national broadcaster and has a responisibilty to always lean towards the inclusive, the ABC's discussion about immigration issues is always skewed towards the left. I happen to agree with the views more or less, but having shows like 'dumb, drunk and racist' does nothing to help anyone, on any side. But there are crummy shows like that that encourage inclusivity, as the ABC is required to do, but never anything that discusses valid, non-reactionary concerns bout immigration and asylum seeking.

Plenty of other examples, that's just the most overt. of course, it's hard to criticise the ABC too much for being clearly on the left on that issue when the way the right frames their arguments - that could actually be good and calm, reasonable and right ones - is so overwhelmingly underwhelming when they try to be positive, but is almost always negative, fear-focused populist-bordering-on-racist crap.

[Platypus]

Abbott want to reject asylum claims on the basis of swearing. Which is just about as Australian an action as it is possible to perform.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/10606381/Tony-Abbott-threatens-to-deport-asylum-seekers-who-swear.html

Like, we knew we were electing a prick, but FFS.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And Morrison insists they can turn back boats, even if it means going into Indonesian waters, apparently you protect your sovereignty by violating someone else's? These f***ing people.

I knew they'd be bad, but they're so much worse than I expected.

[morgieb]

I remember reading an article by Peter Van Oselen a few years back, that warned of the dangers of winning elections before learning the lessons of defeat. I guess that applies for this government a lot.