Australia General Discussion

[Knives]

I can't believe next year Bill Shorten will be PM, simply astounding.

Isn't there a decent chance that Abbott is couped later this year, and the government then wins back enough support under Turnbull (or whoever) to win reelection?

They're all damaged goods though, like Turnball and Bishop look just as awful as Tony atm.

[BaconBacon96]

I can't believe next year Bill Shorten will be PM, simply astounding.

Isn't there a decent chance that Abbott is couped later this year, and the government then wins back enough support under Turnbull (or whoever) to win reelection?

They're all damaged goods though, like Turnball and Bishop look just as awful as Tony atm.

The polling suggests otherwise.

[Mr. Morden]

The betting markets also have Turnbull as the favorite to be PM at the next election, and the Coalition (very narrowly) comes in as a favorite to win it.

[checkers]

That article in the Australian had a "senior liberal MP" who had publicly supported Abbott through the last spill suggest that Turnbull would soon be leader. I can't see him being leader at the next election after this.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Turnbull was a nightmare as OL and this misses a FUNDAMENTAL issue. The issue with the Government's predicament is not the PM (he doesn't help, obviously) but if they don't seriously address the policy issues, they'll lose regardless.

Polling had Labor winning if they returned to Rudd... things didn't work out too well did they?

Rudd was being helped by Lib voters and Turnbull's position is being helped by Labor and Green voters who aren't likely to switch their votes.

[Insula Dei]

I'm on my phone - but look into Abbott's discussions with military re: ISIS.

Nuts.

It's incredible.

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source

...

Incredible stuff. You guys should do this.

[BaconBacon96]

Turnbull was a nightmare as OL and this misses a FUNDAMENTAL issue. The issue with the Government's predicament is not the PM (he doesn't help, obviously) but if they don't seriously address the policy issues, they'll lose regardless.

Polling had Labor winning if they returned to Rudd... things didn't work out too well did they?

Rudd was being helped by Lib voters and Turnbull's position is being helped by Labor and Green voters who aren't likely to switch their votes.

If Turnbull fires Hockey and others, cuts back on some of the more controversial policies, introduces he's own and than calls an early election, where Labor will be cut off guard with little policy of their own, he could win the Coalition another term quite easily.

The key to that strategy is the early election. Turnbull must call an election well early, before the people turn on him. 

[Ebowed]

I've been thinking since the first spill motion that another one this year (probably sooner than later) is inevitable given the intrinsic rascally nature of Abbott and his fundamental inability to change or adapt to changing circumstances.  I would sort of prefer this because I think a Labor victory next year is more legitimate if it is won on the policies rather than on the abysmal personality of Tony Abbott.

Also, the damage that Tony Abbott is doing to Australia's interests abroad is ghastly even if it provides for amusing polling numbers.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If we really are at the stage where senior ministers are leaking all sorts of 'tony abbotts say the funniest things!' guff to the press, he is dead. Shame - I think his sheer ineptness has grown on me in an odd way. And I do respect him somewhat for sticking up to Jokowi's bizare capital punishment fetish, even if Abbott, true to form, expressed himself in a ludicrously paternalistic manner.

No I think the real issue is that both Bishop and Turnbull have been given high up positions before in the party leadership and both fluffed it. It seems that everybody is willing to look past Bishop's disastrous time as Shadow Treasurer, because she has managed to get the easiest and non-partisan cabinet position.

[morgieb]

Labor back to "only" 53-47. Rogue? Or a potential rally around the flag effect with the upcoming executions?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor back to "only" 53-47. Rogue? Or a potential rally around the flag effect with the upcoming executions?

Considering Shorten had a 16% negative swing in his personal ratings and Abbott didn't really move... tells me this was a pretty anti-Labor sample, even considering preference flows.

Mind you Newspoll is renowned for big, inexplicable swings... I'd be surprised if it wasn't back to a 45-55 next fortnight.

[BaconBacon96]

A recent focus back on national security and foreign affairs is the reason. This is a flash in the pan.

[Ebowed]

A recent focus back on national security and foreign affairs is the reason. This is a flash in the pan.

Man, this sort of nonsense actually works?  I guess if it didn't, they wouldn't do it... :-/

[BaconBacon96]

A recent focus back on national security and foreign affairs is the reason. This is a flash in the pan.

Man, this sort of nonsense actually works?  I guess if it didn't, they wouldn't do it... :-/

Exactly. Every time the news cycle focused on foreign affairs last year, Ukraine, MH17, ISIS etc. Abbott's approvals go up.

[BaconBacon96]

Renewed rumours about the leadership, reports coming out that Turnbull now has the numbers for a spill. Suggestions that the treatment of the Human Rights Commissioner has further damaged Abbott's position internally.

[Phony Moderate]

Renewed rumours about the leadership, reports coming out that Turnbull now has the numbers for a spill. Suggestions that the treatment of the Human Rights Commissioner has further damaged Abbott's position internally.

If true, when could a vote take place?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Renewed rumours about the leadership, reports coming out that Turnbull now has the numbers for a spill. Suggestions that the treatment of the Human Rights Commissioner has further damaged Abbott's position internally.

If true, when could a vote take place?

The earliest would be Monday, but the next scheduled official party room meeting is Tuesday.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/liberals-may-back-kevin-rudd-for-un-secretary-general-role/story-fn59nqld-1227241427503

o_o

Apparently Rudd is considering running for UN Secretary General.

[Oakvale]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/liberals-may-back-kevin-rudd-for-un-secretary-general-role/story-fn59nqld-1227241427503

o_o

Apparently Rudd is considering running for UN Secretary General.

Endorsed with the force of a thousand dying suns.

[Platypus]

Helen Clark has had her hand up for aaaages and she's probably do a better job.

[Simfan34]

The Bulgarian lady director of UNESCO will get the job.

[politicus]

The Bulgarian lady director of UNESCO will get the job.

It is not Europe's turn.

[Barnes]

Helen Clark has had her hand up for aaaages and she's probably do a better job.

I think that she'd be undoubtably superior in the role.

[Simfan34]

The Bulgarian lady director of UNESCO will get the job.

It is not Europe's turn.

It is Eastern Europe's turn, however.

[Ebowed]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/liberals-may-back-kevin-rudd-for-un-secretary-general-role/story-fn59nqld-1227241427503

o_o

Apparently Rudd is considering running for UN Secretary General.

Ugh, no thanks.  Can't he just retire already?  He is an embarrassment.

Helen Clark would be an excellent choice.