Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A senior Lib friend tells me Tunbull will win the leadership by between 10 and 20 votes - the anti-Turnbull forces are gathered behind Nelson now. It's known in most political circles that Turnbull and Abbott LOATHE each other.

The extremism of the IR reforms were Howard's doing - it was his life's ambition... and look what it did. Now both Nelson and Turnbull would support overturning them in the Senate.

Deputy will be interesting. I'm being told Robb will get the numbers suprisingly easily, then Bishop second and Pyne given a pat on the back.

The great Liberal civil war is at hand - the moderates are blaming the right for their electoral failures now at a national level. I personally think they have a point, the right control almost every state/territory branch - and are responsible for the policy platform. Although moderates like Pyne, Bishop (Julie), Turnbull, Nelson (he's not a 'conservative'), Hockey should have put more pressure.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm really really surprised - I think it's a combination of anti-Turnbull and feeding Nelson to the wolves kinda thing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lyne is solid Nats country.

Higgins will be much closer than with Costello running in November, I think all should slightly favour the incumbent party - but Higgins is the one that has the best chance of changing hands. But there will be significantly reduced margins.

On Nelson, at present Rudd's honeymoon remains strong and Turnbull is not stupid. He's hoping that Nelson is weak enough by the end of the sitting year - but also that Rudd's gloss has worn off.

It's all about the timing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yay for Nelson! Into double-digits.

This is still an amazing honeymoon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yay for Nelson! Into double-digits.

Did I just hear correctly? That's politically incorrect!

I wonder why the Coalition's support has gone up 4 points. Now it wouldn't just be about Rudd's plans to remove funds to carers and not leaving them in the lurch. I can't think of anything that the Libs have done right since the last poll.

or sarcasm... take it as you will

A 63-37 split is utterly anormal, chances are many were angry with Nelson that day - hence both the 7% and that monstrous deficit. The 59-41 is likely more close to reality.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now the Rudd show goes global.

- US, UK, China and the NATO Summit in Lithuania.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I hope that the Australian media won't go nuts about Julia Gillard this time when Rudd's on his 17 day trip bonanza. It was terrible when the Australian media would not shut up about her because she was acting Prime Minister, when Rudd went to visit East Timor (I believe).

The novelty's worn off - it'll only be if something "big" happens.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think it was a complete waste of time, but I dont think anything significant will come out of it.

The Republic will pop up now every few years - chances are it won't gain traction until HM dies.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Haven't found anything yet about the cost - I'm expanding my search on Monday (calling up a couple of other mates in MP/Senate offices to see if they know).

One thing that's v.clear, coming from friends in MPs offices is how much you are in the dark in opposition.

I think any accusations of wasteful spending from the Libs may backfire.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nelson actually looks to be gaining some confidence in his role now.

Rudd's honeymoon (albeit extended) will end... they always do.

Keep in mind the 16 seat majority rely on a lot of tiny margins... many in QLD. A friend of mine worked out that to change government the Libs need to gain 10,000 votes in those seats. It's certainly doable.

Rudd promised so much during the campaign... but he's not able to deliver.... it's starting to piss people off. It's either high-profile commissions or events that really do nothing, or economic/social policy (except Indig. policy) that's not that different to Howard. In spite of what people said and the Labor policy, people didn't vote for Rudd to be Howard, they voted for him to be different.

Here in the ACT - the sense of dissatisfaction with Rudd is palpable - his extreme demands on the public service (trying to live up to his "constant activity=work ethic"), going back on his promise to respect the ACT's right to create civil unions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm getting angier and angier and more disappointed in Rudd by the day.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A little above average at 97%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's still a 6.7% swing away from the ALP in a seat they still lost quite handily in Nov.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Goverments are always vulnerable in the first term.

Rudd's got the smallest majority, but also so many of them are on tiny margins.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He wants performers.

Although I don't think Coonan was a wise choice. Bishop can tear new ones, re-stitch and tear again - Robb is a wuss.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rumbles from pretty accurate sources that both Gillard and Rudd supporters are counting numbers for a potential leadership challenge.

Considering Parliament returns next week ... it'll be pretty interesting.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New poll out shows that while the Coalition has lost 3% primary vote since the Christmas recess, the ALP primary remains at 30%. Two-party preferred sits at 54-46 Coalition... a total wipeout.

Gillard lost ground to Abbott as preferred PM and now only has a 3% lead.

Senior ALP Ministers are leaking to the press that any Rudd challenge would see them resign and force an immediate election. Which means a lot of people are taking things a lot more seriously than in the past.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Senior ALP Ministers are leaking to the press that any Rudd challenge would see them resign and force an immediate election. Which means a lot of people are taking things a lot more seriously than in the past.

Call an immediate election because they hope to take advantage of any bounce, or resign to stop Kev'.

If one ALP member were to resign, Rudd couldn't command a working majority in the House - he'd be forced to call an election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I thought Gillard was the one overthrowing Rudd? Or was that last year?

Unfortunately a primary vote unable to scrape its way past 34% at best is making them increasingly nervous.

Gillard just isn't breaking through.

http://inside.org.au/labors-six-almost-fatal-mistakes/ - very good article on the ALP's largely self-inflicted problems.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-31/crean-takes-swipe-at-kevin-rudd/3802526

And now it gets very... very personal.

Simon Crean is probably Gillard's closest political ally..

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've only heard those issues in passing.

Will do some digging.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/national/pms-hold-on-job-slipping-say-backers-20120201-1qtim.html

More evidence that this is real...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I know next to nothing about Australian politics, but it's just sad that we can't get a popular center-left government anywhere in the 'Western' world. Stephen Harper's claim to fame is Canada's economy stability, but Australia is doing even better than Canada...

if you read this...

http://inside.org.au/labors-six-almost-fatal-mistakes/

It pretty clearly outlines the failures of the Government to sell its own successes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Remember the days when the ALP were at 60-40?

Unfortunately the ALP lost their nerve and the Opposition got a VERY effective leader.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott as PM will be hilarious, particularly having to do stuff rather than saying 'no' just because the Labor party suggested it.

Abbott is the Lib's Achilles Heel - he's the reason they almost won in 2010... (technically they did win more seats...) but he's also the reason they didn't win outright.

As long as he's leader, I wouldn't count on a Lib win - whatever the polls say.