Australia General Discussion

[Platypus]

1. I like Turnbull, and if he becomes leader and there is a struggle for the heart of the liberals I will be very happy-he is very much a man I could support. Considering the right are in opposition in every parliament in the country, it is obvious that reform MUST be undertaken, and a Georgiou-Turnbull-Payne type of Liberal party would be one I could easily vote for.

2. whoever becomes leader will never be Prime Minister

ergo,

3. I hope Nelson becomes leader. Not as reactionary as Abbott, meaning the restyructuring and realignment of the party won't be too right-wing, but not someone I want as PM. Give him the leadership, let him ,lose, and then have Turnbull challenge in 2011 would be the ideal for me.

[Platypus]

The dole?

[Platypus]

As far as I know, there is no popular term for any documentation you get when you get the sack.

We have Rove Live, which airs on Sunday night, but it's finished for the year-we're moving into non-ratings period.

The Chaser is the one to watch though-wednesday night on the ABC. Its a very high quality-in its mode, anyway-satire show. Probably available for online streaming, and def. worth watching this week considering the election. They probably wouldnt do something like an unemployment sketch, more something to do with gardening at Kirribilli or something.

[Platypus]

I think we've done this before.... how about trying to assign an Australian party first-preference to US states:

(Based on a gambling web site, I calculated that Virginia was the largest anti-gambling state...so I gave that to Xenophon)

Would minor parties actually win states (I highly doubt Xenophon would win a state)

It'd be possible only in exceptional circumstances=kinda lie Jesse Ventura. I'd be more likely to give him New Hampshire than any other state, buyt even then it is highly unlikely.

My guess would be:

ALP
WA, OR, CA, NV, AZ, NM, MN, AR, LA, TN, WV, DC, MD, DE, IL, MI, NY, RI, MA, VT
LIB
FL, GA, VA, NJ, PA, OH, CT, NH, ME
NAT
ID, MT, WY, UT, CO, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, IA, MO, MS, AL, SC, NC, KY, IN, WI

[Platypus]

I reckon it will be close. I'd kinda like the moderate-ish Nelson to win, lose in 2010, and hand over to Turnbull.

[Platypus]

Should Baillieu be sent to Canberra, do you think? Imagine a Turnbull/Baillieu leadership team

[Platypus]

Well, it's Brendan Nelson with Julie Bishop. Not a bad combo, really; i'm listening to their news conference now. They will probably lose in 2010, and then Turnbull might get a chance for 2013.

[Platypus]

I think you're right, but I also think a large amount of Nelson's support is a pro-Howard thing-those who were locked-on Howard supporters seem to have gone significantly to Nelson.

[Platypus]

After 2010.

[Platypus]

so, two weeks of the Rudd government. Opinions?

[Platypus]

The Nationals will survive in one form or another. Once the Liberals return to being a liberal-democratic conservative party (this is Australia...), then the Nationals will still find a large number of voters backing their agrarian populism. I can't see Mallee going Liberal under Howard, certainly not under Nelson and definately not under Turnbull.

Maybe a more defined right wing, but not a swallowing of the nationals by the Liberals.

As to Nelson's leadership, he'll stay for a while yet. I'd give him until at least next year, probably the next election.

[Platypus]

Worth pointing out that the demographic changes that cost them Dawson are rather different to the demographic changes that killed them in the touristy parts of Queensland and which are continuing to kill them in coastal NSW. Would also question the inclusion of Capricornia on the list; historically that's a Labor seat. The concern for the Nationals isn't that they can't hold seats gained in Coalition landslides, but that they can't even hold onto their NSW fiefdoms half the time.

More realistic, I think.

[Platypus]

I don't know much about Lyne, but of the other three:

Higgins:

Almost instantly dismissable. That said, there was the Ryan by-election, but that was against an unpopular government rather than in favour of a popular one. I'd say it's pretty safe for the Liberals.

Mayo:

Liberal. Possibly with a greatly reduced margin, but they should hold this. It's wheatbelt, german belt south australia; not happy hunting grounds for Labor pre-Rudd and not now either.

Gippsland:

The one to watch. The farmers will go overwhelmingly for the Nationals, especially those in the highlands, who still hate the ALP; but the major centers should go Labor, especially in the LaTrobe Valley. Expect ALP majorities in Traralgon and Morwell, with the Nats winning all the farms south of the valley. Bairnsdale and Sale should be interesting; Sale will probably go slightly towards the National (but it could be tight) and Bairnsdale (and the Lakes area in general) should lean quite a bit to the National although without a McGauran that might change towards the ALP. The result will hinge on the loggers and to some extent the far eastern towns on the coast, both of which would need to go to the Nationals with 55%+ to give them a win. Nationals ahead but could be won by the ALP if KRudd stays popular.

[Platypus]

Absolutely, which is why I was and continue to be glad that Turnbull lost.

[Platypus]

So, the Labor government is likely to last until at least 2013 or 2016?

They'll win the next election, which will almost certainly be held in 2010; terms are of a maximum of three and a bit years.

[Platypus]

I disagree.


BTW, we'll have a female G-G in September.

[Platypus]

It's bloody cold up here.

Anyhoo, I liked the idea of volunteering your HECS/CSP debt away.

[Platypus]

The 'alcopops' (never heard that name until Krudd came along) thing is silly, both by the gov't and the Liberal rebuttal. Focus on pensioners or something...not the fact that Yellow is more alcoholic and will have less tax. Seriously...

[Platypus]

Wish I could've been there...

[Platypus]

What, 8% Vodka? That's just silly.

[Platypus]

Kevin Rudd will be in power for 9 years at least.

Please, don't...

[Platypus]

True, although the ALP wasn't elected as a government; it was elected as Kevin07. This is the first time we've really had a president, much moreso than under even Howard. Now, people realise that Kevin07 was never really possible, and they've very disenchanted with Kevin08. Still, we can live in hope of Turnbull10 or Gillard14.

[Platypus]

Honeymoon's Over, says the Age, following a 7.2% swing to the Nats in Gippsland.

Lib/Nats to win in 2010?

[Platypus]

Yes. Without middle-class housewives, the Australian political scene would be very, very different.

[Platypus]

NSW is indeed screwed up. It's glorious. Melbourne will reign supreme once more!

Anyway. Crean is one of a handful of parliamentarians I trul;y respect, but yes he is a bit dull. He would have lost, but hey...so did Latham.

Anyway...did you see the game last night Conor? Hmmn? Dreaming really is all you can do.