Australia General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Link to the threatened resignations and NSW Right stuff?

[RogueBeaver]

Does Australian House of Representatives have a vote of no confidence rule? And if so, how likely would it occur on this situation.

All Westminster countries do. Right now they would need all the independents to break with Labor and vote against the government on a matter of confidence like the budget or a specialized non-confidence motion (NCM). For now, apart from Willkie (who's withdrawn his support for the government), the independents show no sign of moving.

[RogueBeaver]

Re economy: You could say the same about Major's Tories in '97.

[RogueBeaver]

Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?

[RogueBeaver]

Right now their numbers are either level with or slightly lower than what they were in 1996. So yes, they've flatlined. In French we call it an ecrasement.

[RogueBeaver]

Everyone's waiting for Queensland aren't they? So the Coalition should throw everything they have into winning state government.

Will the next steps start only if Lab looses Queensland or could it also start if they lose in all but name? Say, a minority or sharply reduced majority.

[RogueBeaver]

All the independents would have to break away. They will ride it out to the statutory limit, as all flatlined governments do.

I just checked Wiki: LNP leads 58-42 in Queensland. If those numbers hold Lab loses Queensland for the first time in a generation. Second backroomer condition is the federal budget... what are they looking for in there?

[RogueBeaver]

OK, so he drops a few F-bombs. What national leader doesn't in private? If he'd made a racist remark about the Chinese maybe this would be a BFD. He didn't, so what's the big deal here?

[RogueBeaver]

If the margin is too close then she'll be even further damaged, like Thatcher would've been had she won the second ballot in 1990. Then again, both of them are completely radioactive... so it doesn't matter much either way.

No complicated rules like UK Tories in '90, right? 50+1 = WIN, PERIOD?

[RogueBeaver]

Get this over with now rather than dragging on till June.

[RogueBeaver]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-20/crean-calls-for-end-to-leadership-tussle/3839504

And Crean is the hatchet-man.

He's right. End this now. If Gillard wants a quick reset, she should prorogue and prepare a gimmicky Throne Speech for the reopening. Even gimmicks are better than what they're discussing right now from a Lab perspective.

[RogueBeaver]

A failed leader as a compromise between two failed leaders? That would almost as much an epic failure as replacing Gillard with Rudd.

[RogueBeaver]

As a Canuck I'm getting flashbacks to when Paul Martin was fired a decade ago. Not that the outcome will be the same, since Rudd controls neither machinery nor anything approaching a majority of caucus...

[RogueBeaver]

Will Rudd challenge again once he loses?

[RogueBeaver]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE9FDKxMXTw

Jules officially calls for a ballot.

Just wondering what my own Labour Party'd be like if we had the Australian system of electing a leader. We'd be a massive mess.

Someone else would have won your last contest.

[RogueBeaver]

What would happen to he government if Rudd defeats Gillard? Since the independents have a special agreement with Gillard, and not the ALP, would that force an election?

No, because they have other reasons not to force dissolution. Such as losing their seats. More generally, there would be a Cabinet shuffle if Rudd won- but regardless of who wins it doesn't change the flatlined trajectory.

[RogueBeaver]

This isn't ideology (even Chretien/Martin had some ideological contrast, speaking as a Canuck) but pure personality. Dunno if Hawke-Keating was similar.

[RogueBeaver]

Were Rudd to return to power, I don't know how that would help the ALP's chances in the next election

I'll repost what I posted in the Gillard thread.

Sounds awfully like the Hillary 2012ers. Once you put their idols back in the domestic arena everyone shortly remembers why said idols were exiled from it to begin with.

[RogueBeaver]

The only thing the ALP will bury (I would argue, has buried) is themselves.

[RogueBeaver]

Neither of them had open civil wars in their parties for one. Just as crucially, their policies were either liked or tolerated by the electorate, they were highly skilled at both strategy and tactics and had incompetent opponents. Keating had the added bonus of charisma. No one wants a party to govern that can't govern itself.

[RogueBeaver]

Can they recover? Sure. But not if they continue on their present course, and they show no signs of changing it.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently, no mobile phones are allowed into caucus this morning. How naive.

It isn't like the result will shock anyone...

[RogueBeaver]

Is there any hope of a Coalition leadership spill in the remotely foreseeable future or is the Australian right up Abbott Creek without a paddle for the remainder of this Parliament?

At the rate things are going? Not a chance.

[RogueBeaver]

If she thumps him that bad, then forget about any possibility of a second challenge.

Here's a live feed which works for non-Aussies.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/?WT.svl=wrapper

[RogueBeaver]

Plus que sa change...