Australia General Discussion

[morgieb]

I know next to nothing about Australian politics, but it's just sad that we can't get a popular center-left government anywhere in the 'Western' world. Stephen Harper's claim to fame is Canada's economy stability, but Australia is doing even better than Canada...

Basically, Gillard has communication problems and leaves people cold.

[morgieb]

Abbott as PM will be hilarious, particularly having to do stuff rather than saying 'no' just because the Labor party suggested it.

[morgieb]

This shows how bad Labor is in the sh**t. Basically economic growth has been way higher than most/all 1st world countries. Our taxes are lower than any 1st world countries bar the basket case we call the USA....we have the 2nd highest living standards in the world.....yet Labor are still behind up 8-10 points. Jesus wept.

[morgieb]

What does Laborious do now? Does Gillard run out the clock until the next federal election, or will she be eased out by fellow ALP MP's?

Not sure. What I think will happen....

1. Rudd challenges Gillard.
2. Gillard manages to swat him by because he's hated by the Labor Caucus, but she is weakened in the process.
3. Gillard still doesn't get a surge in the polls.
4. Labor eventually realises that Gillard can't win the next election.
5. They move towards a compromise candidate, probably Swan or Smith.

[morgieb]

Re economy: You could say the same about Major's Tories in '97.

The Tories had also been in power for 18 years, whereas Labor's only been in power for 4.

Besides, we've never had any "Black Tuesday" moments.

[morgieb]

Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?

Talking about the Caucus or everyday Labor members?

[morgieb]

Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?

I've no idea and that's really not the point.

Personally, i've always found the Australian way of selecting party leaders to be very strange.

Pretty sure Labor are considering reforming it.

[morgieb]

What is Rudd's great sin?

He's non-collaborative (ie Ministers often only know of a decision in their portfolio once it's announced) - this is especially bad in the ALP, where the caucus is meant to a filtering process. The other ALP-specific sin is that he's not aligned with one of the factions - which means no one trusts him. But for the public at-large (and those of us in Canberra) - he's very ill-mannered, in private every 3rd word is f*** (or some variation), and his government was marked by a lot of activity, policy made up on the fly and no real pay off.  

I though KRudd was meant to be insanely popular for like two years after his election. What happened?

Well he's still quite popular with general electorate. The ALP Caucus always could not stand him - the only reason he lasted so long was because his polling was awesome.

[morgieb]

Is the next election in 2013?

If that's the case, maybe Gillard, or at least ALP, can ride this storm.

Yes, but there may be an election before that.

[morgieb]

wrt to an early election, if the Craig Thomson scandal blows up any further, he might have to resign, and I'd favour the Liberals to pick up his seat in a by-election.

[morgieb]

The simple truth is that if Labor knew how to sell, they'd be way ahead.

Our hopes will probably rest with the Thomson scenario.

[morgieb]

The Carbon Tax has claimed another victim...

http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/07/09/carbon-tax-funeral-impact-unknown/

Looks kinda like you saw a more balanced story elsewhere and then hunted down a source that most closely aligned with your views. Good to know the Sunshine Coast Daily didn't disappoint.

For a somewhat more balanced version, here's the take by the (still right-wing) Courier Mail:

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/death-costs-wont-rise-under-carbon-tax-the-federal-government-has-promised/story-e6freon6-1226421669761

I assure you, I am quite ignorant of what is right or left in terms of Australian media. He only paper I know is the Australian, which is a Murdoch's outfit.

Anyway, I think he story is rather silly. I just posted it because of he weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth over the law.

Right: Murdoch media (Telegraph, Australian)
Center: Fairfax media (might move right once Rinehart takes over)
Left: ABC/SBS

Generally.

[morgieb]

Wasn't Tourism Australia the company that made the "Where the bloody hell are you?" ads?

[morgieb]

Wayne Swan would lose just as badly or worse than Gillard. If I'm correct, many often see him a laughingstock, and he'd be the first prime minister to never win an election since Billy McMahon (not to mention he'd likely lose his own seat). He'd probably be remembered as a joke in the history books. Then again, "the office, staff and driver for life" might convince Swanny to to do it anyway.

I agree with RogueBeaver though. I think Gillard will still be in place to lose the next election.

What do people here think of Defence Minister Stephen Smith? I keep on hearing him mentioned as a "saving the furniture" guy in the media, but does he actually have anything different to offer?

Not particularly, but he is safe and probably has backing of both wings of the party.

The heir apparent is without a doubt Shorten. Unfortunately Smid is right about the Right controlling the party's leadership.

[morgieb]

Wayne Swan would lose just as badly or worse than Gillard. If I'm correct, many often see him a laughingstock, and he'd be the first prime minister to never win an election since Billy McMahon (not to mention he'd likely lose his own seat). He'd probably be remembered as a joke in the history books. Then again, "the office, staff and driver for life" might convince Swanny to to do it anyway.

I agree with RogueBeaver though. I think Gillard will still be in place to lose the next election.

What do people here think of Defence Minister Stephen Smith? I keep on hearing him mentioned as a "saving the furniture" guy in the media, but does he actually have anything different to offer?

Not particularly, but he is safe and probably has backing of both wings of the party.

The heir apparent is without a doubt Shorten. Unfortunately Smid is right about the Right controlling the party's leadership.

That sucks.  Would the left have a shot at it if most of the MP's who loose their seats in 2013 are from the right?  'Cause it seems (correct me if I'm wrong) like the majority of MP's who are at risk of loosing their seats are from the right. 

Not sure if that's true or not - ideology doesn't play a big of a role as it does America.

[morgieb]

We have to wait and see who's left in caucus first...

tbh most of the big names are in safe seats.

Generally, you'd see more local sort of MPs in marginal seats.

[morgieb]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

[morgieb]

The Labor Party is certainly more similar to our Democratic Party than any other political party in the world is.

Wow.  I take it Australia's a really conservative country, then?

Not entirely, but the problem is that there are some really conservative unions backing the ALP, plus there isn't any real middle party, merely a left party.

It's still more conservative than most other countries.

[morgieb]

Also, the Canadian electorate is incredibly volatile; the Australian electorate is not so much.

Queensland and NSW to deny.

[morgieb]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

I meant Andrew Leigh, oops.

Yaayy!  I'm a big fan of his.  A true unabashed social democrat who isn't a slave to either faction.  Hope he becomes Labor leader and fixes up the party (both structurally and ideologically) and becomes PM. 

Very smart man too - he's basically the Antony Green/Nate Silver/etc. of parliament.

[morgieb]

If Gillard loses the election in 2016 Roxon will be Labor leader.

Highly improbable, and from a personal viewpoint, highly undesirable.

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Re: Jones. Not a surprise he's a tosser, just a surprise the media have decided to make a scandal out of this. Why not any of the last 327 disgusting things he's said in the last few years?

Well it's about time they did....

[morgieb]

Are there any burning state issues which are helping or harming either party? Also agreed on the 2004 outcome overall.

Some of the Liberal governments are going all austerity on us, but other than that not really.

[morgieb]

ER still has it at 54-46, but their methodology is weird.

[morgieb]

What's the likelihood that Adam Bandt actually keeps his seat in the next election?  I would assume it's not very high, but you never know...

Depends on preferences really.

[morgieb]

Crikey is predicting that the upcoming federal election (the deadline is Nov 30) will occur in September.

Thoughts?

Think October is more likely.