Australia General Discussion

[Talleyrand]

If I may ask a question, who do you think would succeed Gillard as leader of the Labor Party? Would Rudd make another attempt at the leadership?

The favorite is Employment Minister Bill Shorten, often hailed as Labor's "next great hope". However, considering that Labor will likely spend at least six years in opposition after 2013, I think he may not take the leadership.

Kevin Rudd's frontbench hopes are probably finished if Labor loses the next election. He is widely loathed in caucus and without their jobs at risk, the remaining Labor MPs would almost certainly not vote for him.

[Talleyrand]

Wayne Swan would lose just as badly or worse than Gillard. If I'm correct, many often see him a laughingstock, and he'd be the first prime minister to never win an election since Billy McMahon (not to mention he'd likely lose his own seat). He'd probably be remembered as a joke in the history books. Then again, "the office, staff and driver for life" might convince Swanny to to do it anyway.

I agree with RogueBeaver though. I think Gillard will still be in place to lose the next election.

What do people here think of Defence Minister Stephen Smith? I keep on hearing him mentioned as a "saving the furniture" guy in the media, but does he actually have anything different to offer?

[Talleyrand]

Not only has Redmond resigned, Thomson has been arrested. It seems I've missed a lot.

[Talleyrand]

Roxon resigning is a major loss for Labor and Australia.

Why?

I don't think so... but that's just me.

And me.

And me, but I'm not Australian.

[Talleyrand]

How exactly was this move supposed to benefit Labor? If the intent was to save Warren Snowdon by pandering to Aboriginal peoples by having one of their own (who doesn't even primarily live in the Northern Territory according to a few sources) on the ticket, it doesn't seem to be working out to well.

[Talleyrand]

A recent poll has shown that Labor will lose both Blaxland and Chifley, which are safe seats held by margins of over over 12/13%. I wonder if this massive swing extends to Eastern Sydney and electorates such as Kingsford Smith (held by Peter Garrett).

Could you give a link to the poll in question?

And hasn't single electorate polling in Australia been not trustworthy in the past? If so, these results seem quite suspect, unless redistribution somehow made these seats significantly more marginal for the Labor Party.

As for Kingsford Smith, it sits on a margin of only about 5%, so perhaps it wouldn't be that stunning were it to go Liberal later this year.

[Talleyrand]

I'm not surprised that Wayne Swan's on track to lose his seat at the current rate, but these results will have to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt. I could take these results to be much more valid had Fairfax/ReachTEL polled them straight up, instead of asking hypotheticals "With Gillard as PM" or "With Rudd as PM". That's almost certainly skewing these results.

For example, in Chifley, the results with Gillard show the Libs at 54% of 2PP, while with Rudd, they drop to 42%.

[Talleyrand]

If the Coalition wins federally, Victoria will fall to the ALP again and the ALP will do well in SA in 2014 and the cycle resets.

It's much too early to predict the state-by-state results if the House of Representatives falls to the Coalition this September, but I have to disagree with you on SA. My understanding is that there is some extreme Labor fatigue there after over a decade of ALP rule and they're likely headed for a defeat, if not a blowout. In the event they do hold on, I'd say they head for a NSW-style massacre in 2018.

As for Victoria, I'd say there's a 50-50 chance it switches back, but it's unclear what effect the replacement of Ted Baillieu with Denis Naphstone will have at this point.


Judging from the trajectories of the most recent statewide elections anyway, I'd say Gillard's in fo a '96 style defeat, although I could envision a narrower loss if the ssituation becomes more like it was late last year in terms of the electoral landscape.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll is interesting ...

Gillard regains preferred PM title, the ALP primary is up to 34% and the Coalitions down to 44% for a 52-48% TPP.

However... the NP also shows a return to Rudd would shift the ALP primary to 47 and drop the Coalition to 39%

Yeah, the part with Rudd seems questionable. Did they release TPP figures for that scenario?

[Talleyrand]

There will be a ballot for the leadership and deputy leadership of the Labor Party at 4:30, Gillard has announced at Question Time.

[Talleyrand]

Abbott has called a no confidence motion.

[Talleyrand]

Gillard not even answering the question, just taunting the Coalition.

It could be said that the Coalition just went on for a vicious fifteen minute taunt against Gillard instead of simply asking a question, too. Both sides are at fault here for their behavior, but then again it's just political theatre.

It's getting much too personal for my taste as well.

[Talleyrand]

Motion failed.

73 for the motion, 71 against. They needed 76 for it to pass.

[Talleyrand]

With seventy minutes to go, Rudd still hasn't declared and there's chatter he may not even run, so RogueBeaver may have had a point earlier...

[Talleyrand]

Do we have any idea about the other choices? I read somewhere that Jason Clare may receive a higher-ranking ministership than his current portfolio, and Gai Brodtmann and Andrew Leigh may be taken from the backbench.

[Talleyrand]

Does anyone have an idea how the half-Senate elections would shape up with numbers like this? I'm guessing it might mean an outright or workable Coalition majority in the Upper House in the unlikely event they hold.

[Talleyrand]

PVO: Liberals are pursuing a decapitation strategy.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/libs-mission-off-with-their-heads/story-e6frg6z6-1226607965345

Some of those targets seem pretty far-fetched to me- I seriously doubt Jason Clare will lose Blaxland, etc., but Labor will definitely lose some talent this election.

Also, it looks like Liberal Senator Gary Humphries has officially been ousted for pre-selection by ACT Opposition Leader Zed Seselja in this year's election. The Greens are hopeful they can knock off the Liberals here and gain the seat.

Link

[Talleyrand]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/jostling-over-senate-seat-yet-to-be-vacated/4978714

What does everyone think about the upcoming casual vacancy that will come with Bob Carr's resignation as Senator for NSW?

It appears that former MPs Deb O'Neill (Robertson) and Mike Kelly (Eden-Monaro) will put their hands up for the position. Peter Van Onselen says a deal has already been made to put O'Neill into the seat to fill Labor's affirmative action quotas, but he believes Kelly, who would have become Defence Minister if Labor had held power, would be a far better bargain for the ALP in the long-run.

[Talleyrand]

Don't know enough to judge. As for Howes, there were many other reasons besides SSM (I'm guessing the ALP will move his way on that issue within a few years) for why he didn't force the issue. I'm more curious to see if he eventually enters the Reps.

I hope he doesn't make it in...

Is there any place where we can find how the ALP Parliamentary Caucus is breaking down for the upcoming ballot?

Here's my count-

Confirmed Shorten (20)

1.   Bill Shorten, MP for Maribyrnong, VIC
2.   Sam Dastyari, Senator for NSW
3.   Stephen Conroy, Senator VIC
4.   Glenn Sterle, Senator for WA
5.   Don Farrell, Senator for SA
6.   Catryna Bilyk, Senator for TAS
7.   Helen Polley, Senator for TAS
8.   Laurie Ferguson, MP for Werriwa, NSW
9.   Ed Husic, MP for Chifley, NSW
10.   Anthony Byrne, MP for Holt, VIC
11.   Mark Dreyfus, MP for Isaacs, VIC
12.   David Feeney, MP for Batman, VIC
13.   Richard Marles, MP for Corio, VIC
14.   Rob Mitchell, MP for McEwen, VIC
15.   Tim Watts, MP for Gellibrand, VIC
16.   Jim Chalmers, MP for Rankin, QLD
17.   Shayne Neumann, MP for Blair, QLD
18.   Bernie Ripoll, MP for Oxley, QLD
19.   Kate Ellis, MP for Adelaide, SA
20.   Warren Snowdon, MP for Lingiari, NT

Albanese (18)

1.   Anthony Albanese, MP for Grayndler, NSW
2.   Doug Cameron, Senator for NSW
3.   Louise Pratt, Senator for WA
4.   Penny Wong, Senator for SA
5.   Carol Brown, Senator for TAS
6.   Lisa Singh, Senator TAS
7.   Lin Thorp, Senator TAS
8.   Anne Urquhart, Senator TAS
9.   Sharon Claydon, MP for Newcastle, NSW
10.   Pat Conroy, MP for Charlton, NSW
11.   Jill Hall, MP for Shortland, NSW
12.   Tanya Plibersek, MP for Sydney, NSW
13.   Jenny Macklin, MP for Jagajaga, VIC
14.   Graham Perrett, MP for Moreton, QLD
15.   Alannah MacTiernan, MP for Perth, WA
16.   Mark Butler, MP for Port Adelaide, SA
17.   Julie Collins, MP for Franklin, TAS
18.   Andrew Leigh, MP for Fraser, ACT

Unconfirmed (48)

1.   Bob Carr, Senator NSW
2.   John Faulkner, Senator NSW
3.   Ursula Stephens, Senator NSW
4.   Kim Carr, Senator VIC
5.   Jacinta Collins, Senator VIC
6.   Gavin Marshall, Senator VIC
7.   Mehmet Tillem, Senator VIC
8.   Mark Furner, Senator QLD
9.   John Hogg, Senator QLD
10.   Joe Ludwig, Senator QLD
11.   Jan McLucas, Senator QLD
12.   Claire Moore, Senator QLD
13.   Mark Bishop, Senator WA
14.   Sue Lines, Senator WA
15.   Alex Gallacher, Senator SA
16.   Anne McEwen, Senator SA
17.   Kate Lundy, Senator ACT
18.   Nova Peris, Senator NT
19.   Sharon Bird, MP for Cunningham, NSW
20.   Chris Bowen, MP for McMahon, NSW
21.   Tony Burke, MP for Watson, NSW
22.   Jason Clare, MP for Blaxland, NSW
23.   Justine Elliot, MP for Richmond, NSW
24.   Joel Fitzgibbon, MP for Hunter, NSW
25.   Chris Hayes, MP for Fowler, NSW
26.   Stephen Jones, MP for Throsby, NSW
27.   Julie Owens, MP for Parramatta, NSW
28.   Michelle Rowland, MP for Greenway, NSW
29.   Matt Thistlethwaite, MP for Kingsford Smith, NSW
30.   Anna Burke, MP for Chisholm, VIC
31.   Lisa Chesters, MP for Bendigo, VIC
32.   Michael Danby, MP for Melbourne Ports, VIC
33.   Andrew Giles, MP for Scullin, VIC
34.   Alan Griffin, MP for Bruce, VIC
35.   Catherine King, MP for Ballarat, VIC
36.   Brendan O’Connor, MP for Gorton, VIC
37.   Clare O’Neil, MP for Hotham, VIC
38.   Joanne Ryan, MP for Lalor, VIC
39.   Kelvin Thompson, MP for Wills, VIC
40.   Maria Vamvakinou, MP for Calwell, VIC
41.   Kevin Rudd, MP for Griffith, QLD
42.   Wayne Swan, MP for Lilley, QLD
43.   Gary Gray, MP for Brand, WA
44.   Melissa Parke, MP for Fremantle, WA
45.   Nick Champion, MP for Wakefield, SA
46.   Amanda Rishworth, MP for Kingston, SA
47.   Tony Zappia, MP for Makin, SA
48.   Gai Brodtmann, MP for Canberra, ACT


If anyone has corrections/changes to make to the count, I'd love to have them. I complied this list in just under an hour, so obviously it may have mistakes (as well as being devoid of local knowledge).

[Talleyrand]

I think you can put Senator Conroy in the Shorten camp. He made comments in an interview a couple of weeks ago, I think I commented on them higher up the thread.

Done! Another issue is what to do with MPs/Senators like Rudd, who won't announce their preference in public, but will almost certainly vote one way. Probably best to err on the side of caution.

[Talleyrand]

Congrats Tony.

[Talleyrand]

Congrats Tony.

That attitude is how we are guaranteed to lose in 2016.

My preference was for Albanese and I think Shorten is a risk, but ... I started to waver when I was about to fill out my ballot - Shorten genuinely impressed me over the last 2 weeks and frankly Albanese was disappointing me in that he was talking about strategy, which is fine, but barely touching policy.

The job now is to grow up, accept the result and work like buggery to bring the creep and his c-grade team down.

The bigger worry I have is not the fact that Shorten's now leader, but how he ascended to the position in some sort of factional stoush... That said, you're right that the party needs to unite behind him to give the strongest performance against Abbott in 2016.

Also, here is my final guess for how the caucus vote went down (with 100% margin of error). Feel free to make corrections/suggested changes.

Shorten (55)

1.   Bill Shorten, MP for Maribyrnong, VIC
2.   Bob Carr, Senator NSW
3.   Sam Dastyari, Senator for NSW
4.   Ursula Stephens, Senator NSW
5.   Jacinta Collins, Senator VIC
6.   Stephen Conroy, Senator VIC
7.   Mehmet Tillem, Senator VIC
8.   Glenn Sterle, Senator for WA
9.   Mark Bishop, Senator WA
10.   Don Farrell, Senator for SA
11.   Alex Gallacher, Senator SA
12.   Catryna Bilyk, Senator for TAS
13.   Helen Polley, Senator for TAS
14.   Mark Furner, Senator QLD
15.   John Hogg, Senator QLD
16.   Joe Ludwig, Senator QLD
17.   Kate Lundy, Senator ACT
18.   Nova Peris, Senator NT
19.   Laurie Ferguson, MP for Werriwa, NSW
20.   Sharon Bird, MP for Cunningham, NSW
21.   Chris Bowen, MP for McMahon, NSW
22.   Tony Burke, MP for Watson, NSW
23.   Jason Clare, MP for Blaxland, NSW
24.   Joel Fitzgibbon, MP for Hunter, NSW
25.   Chris Hayes, MP for Fowler, NSW
26.   Julie Owens, MP for Parramatta, NSW
27.   Michelle Rowland, MP for Greenway, NSW
28.   Matt Thistlethwaite, MP for Kingsford Smith, NSW
29.   Ed Husic, MP for Chifley, NSW
30.   Anthony Byrne, MP for Holt, VIC
31.   Mark Dreyfus, MP for Isaacs, VIC
32.   David Feeney, MP for Batman, VIC
33.   Richard Marles, MP for Corio, VIC
34.   Rob Mitchell, MP for McEwen, VIC
35.   Anna Burke, MP for Chisholm, VIC
36.   Lisa Chesters, MP for Bendigo, VIC
37.   Michael Danby, MP for Melbourne Ports, VIC
38.   Jim Chalmers, MP for Rankin, QLD
39.   Shayne Neumann, MP for Blair, QLD
40.   Bernie Ripoll, MP for Oxley, QLD
41.   Kate Ellis, MP for Adelaide, SA
42.   Warren Snowdon, MP for Lingiari, NT
43.   Andrew Giles, MP for Scullin, VIC
44.   Brendan O’Connor, MP for Gorton, VIC
45.   Clare O’Neil, MP for Hotham, VIC
46.   Alan Griffin, MP for Bruce, VIC
47.   Joanne Ryan, MP for Lalor, VIC
48.   Kelvin Thompson, MP for Wills, VIC
49.   Maria Vamvakinou, MP for Calwell, VIC
50.   Tim Watts, MP for Gellibrand, VIC
51.   Wayne Swan, MP for Lilley, QLD
52.   Gary Gray, MP for Brand, WA
53.   Nick Champion, MP for Wakefield, SA
54.   Amanda Rishworth, MP for Kingston, SA
55.   Gai Brodtmann, MP for Canberra, ACT



Albanese (31)

1.   Anthony Albanese, MP for Grayndler, NSW
2.   Doug Cameron, Senator for NSW
3.   John Faulkner, Senator NSW
4.   Kim Carr, Senator VIC
5.   Gavin Marshall, Senator VIC
6.   Louise Pratt, Senator for WA
7.   Sue Lines, Senator WA
8.   Penny Wong, Senator for SA
9.   Anne McEwen, Senator SA
10.   Carol Brown, Senator for TAS
11.   Lisa Singh, Senator TAS
12.   Lin Thorp, Senator TAS
13.   Anne Urquhart, Senator TAS
14.   Jan McLucas, Senator QLD
15.   Claire Moore, Senator QLD
16.   Sharon Claydon, MP for Newcastle, NSW
17.   Pat Conroy, MP for Charlton, NSW
18.   Jill Hall, MP for Shortland, NSW
19.   Tanya Plibersek, MP for Sydney, NSW
20.   Justine Elliot, MP for Richmond, NSW
21.   Stephen Jones, MP for Throsby, NSW
22.   Jenny Macklin, MP for Jagajaga, VIC
23.   Catherine King, MP for Ballarat, VIC
24.   Graham Perrett, MP for Moreton, QLD
25.   Kevin Rudd, MP for Griffith, QLD
26.   Alannah MacTiernan, MP for Perth, WA
27.   Melissa Parke, MP for Fremantle, WA
28.   Mark Butler, MP for Port Adelaide, SA
29.   Julie Collins, MP for Franklin, TAS
30.   Andrew Leigh, MP for Fraser, ACT
31.   Tony Zappia, MP for Makin, SA

[Talleyrand]

The Victorian Left switched to Shorten? Does that include people like Senator Carr?

[Talleyrand]

Here's the full list

You must be logged in to read this quote.

At this point, it's probably time for people like Conroy and Farrell to step aside, but what up-and-comers do the forum ALPers think missed out on the Ministry?

[Talleyrand]

Does anyone know how the areas Miranda covers voted in the federal election last month? I know it's in the safe seat of Cook, which gave 66.5% of its TCP to now-Immigration Minister Scott Morrison, so I'm assuming that they went solidly Liberal. This seems like it could be a reverse version of the 2010 Penrith/Lindsay situation, although I'm not sure how the areas making up Penrith voted in the general election that year.