Which of these states will first go Democrat?

[Matusleo]

It's +6 Mason-Dixon, +11 Survey USA

Bush is to Virginia as Kerry is to Washington. Only a complete hyperpartisan would predict a Kerry landslide, which is the only thing that would move VA into the Democratic column.

Just because you live here doesn't mean the state is in play. I'm sure if I was in California, I'd like to think it was a battleground state too.

The latest poll in Virginia is a Zogby poll which has Bush up by three.  Those other polls were taken before the first debate I'd wager, since there haven't bene that many polls done in Virginia.  And I will definitely grant you that bush was cleaning Kerry's clock in Virginia before that first debate.  Since then....

And living here, I can see trends in my part of the state very well, and I assure you that it is not favourable to Bush. 

But I agree that Kerry will have to win by a few points to carry Virginia.  If it were razor tight, Bush would win the state.  But since I think that Kerry will win by four to five points, I think it very plausible that Virginia will vote for Kerry.

[A18]

Zogby internet polls are complete garbage. I believe they have Arizona and Arkansas as tied.

What? Your two best friends don't like Bush? That's not really a scientific trend...

Bush has a 54% JA rating here. Four or five points would make it close, but it wouldn't flip the state.

[Matusleo]

Zogby internet polls are complete garbage. I believe they have Arizona and Arkansas as tied.

What? Your two best friends don't like Bush? That's not really a scientific trend...

Bush has a 54% JA rating here. Four or five points would make it close, but it wouldn't flip the state.

Considering that Zogby was one of the only polling firms to correctly predict that Gore would iwn th epopular vote last time around, I tend to trust them a bit more.

And secondly, I have three friends, get it right. ;-)

From everything tha tI have seen in my part of the state, and at looking at state trends, it strikes me that Virginia is slowly becoming more and more competitive.  Kerry can win here, but only if he is winning by at least 4 or 5 points.  I tihnk that will be enough fro him to eke out a victory here.  If he wins by as many points as Clinton won in 96, then he'll definitely nail Virginia (Clinton nearly did in 96 as well, back when the state GOP was in ascendence).

[A18]

I think 2000 was before Zogby started the internet survey method. I'm sure his telephone polls are fine.

The reason Gore won the popular vote is because of that DUI report. It wouldn't have been a close election without it.

Clinton came close because of Ross Perot. That was 45%, a full 4 points worse than his national average.

There's no such thing as a Democrat "nailing" Virginia. He could, however, squeak out a victory with a 7-8 point lead nationally.

Hasn't happened since Lyndon Johnson.

[Matusleo]

I still trust Zogby more than most other polling firms.    They seem to have it right more often than not.  A lot of poling places we've sene uncovered for flagrantly weighting the sample too heavily with Republicans.

I tihnk that the election was starting to slide away form Bush even without the DUI report.  That may have moved things a little faster though.  Even so, Gore still did come out on top in the popular vote, which few pollsters predicted.

Clinton got 45%, that's true.  Kerry is often polling aroudn that or above.  And Kerry will likely pick up most of the undecided voters, so he'll definitely beat Clinton's score.  And as I said, Clinton did that well when the state GOP was on an upswing.  They are in a bit of a crisis at the moment without any consistent leadership.

And when I said tat Kerry would have it nailed, I meant that he would win, however close the margin would be.  Kerry winning Virginia is a pretty dramatic thing after all.

[ATFFL]

This is a pdf file showing how inaccurate Zogby has been in recent elections.

If you are going to hang out here you are going to have to learn the truth about Zogby.  His claims of accuracy are flat out lies.  He was not the most accurate pollster in 2000, he was ranked 6th.

This file was creted by The Vorlon, the local polling expert.

[??????????]

The day the old dominion goes Democrat will certainly be a dreadful day for southerners across all of the south.

[Akno21]

I say Alaska because one day they will wake up and realize the GOP is killing their environment. When that day will be, I don't know.

[Colin]

I say Alaska because one day they will wake up and realize the GOP is killing their environment. When that day will be, I don't know.

Stop living in a dream world Akno. A large majority of Alaskans want ANWR drilled. Most people up their are connected to the oil industry in some way or another. What you don't get is whats good for business is good for the people who benefit from that business, shareholders, workers, people in the community. Anyway in my mind Alaska will always be a place that openly accepts third parties. The Greens got 10.67% in Alaska in 2000 thats the most of any state. If this sudded enviromental awakening happens then they will most likely vote Green. The likelyhood of that happening though is slim.

All you Dems just keep living in a dream world. You rattle on and on about how the Republicans are going the way of the horse and buggy and how the democrats will rule the country but you don't take into account history. In the 1960s you controlled everything. The Presidency, the Congress, the Governorships, the State Legislators, everything and now through your own ineptitude of putting weak socialist on the ballot and supporting Adulturous Presidents who obstruct justice and use IRS audits to silence the opposition. You have screwed yourselves over and now you are saying that the Republicans are doomed. That is very blind to history and to the current situation.

[Akno21]

I say Alaska because one day they will wake up and realize the GOP is killing their environment. When that day will be, I don't know.

Stop living in a dream world Akno. A large majority of Alaskans want ANWR drilled. Most people up their are connected to the oil industry in some way or another. What you don't get is whats good for business is good for the people who benefit from that business, shareholders, workers, people in the community. Anyway in my mind Alaska will always be a place that openly accepts third parties. The Greens got 10.67% in Alaska in 2000 thats the most of any state. If this sudded enviromental awakening happens then they will most likely vote Green. The likelyhood of that happening though is slim.

All you Dems just keep living in a dream world. You rattle on and on about how the Republicans are going the way of the horse and buggy and how the democrats will rule the country but you don't take into account history. In the 1960s you controlled everything. The Presidency, the Congress, the Governorships, the State Legislators, everything and now through your own ineptitude of putting weak socialist on the ballot and supporting Adulturous Presidents who obstruct justice and use IRS audits to silence the opposition. You have screwed yourselves over and now you are saying that the Republicans are doomed. That is very blind to history and to the current situation.

Colin, wow, I thought you were a sensible Republican. Anyhow, I think Alaska will go Democratic or whoever the big pro-environmental party is in about 2050. It is solid Republican and will continue to be for a long time. I don't think we will control the country, I think there will be a Civil War. In the 1960's we had a bunch of racists in our party (that's where Coulter and Hannity get that misinterpreted stat about who voted for Civil Rights legislation) Do you think I agree with my parties choices for President. Of course, hindshight is 20/20, but I think Dukakis and Mondale were pitiful picks, although in Mondale's case there was no one else. As for the whole Bill Clinton scandal thing, I hope Americans realize that the policy enacted matters more than the person enacting it. Do you realize how much money was spent to prosecute him? The Democrats have screwed themselves over by not playing hard enough, by letting the GOP get away with slander ads on Cleland and making up total bulls**t about the Wellstone memorial. The GOP gets out the base better than we do, and they have succeded in making all cultural and character matters religous, and thus they garner the sickeningly large amount of Fundamentalists in the country.

[ian]

1. Virginia obviously.
2. South Dakota, which I think will be the big shocker in the 2008 election, going liberal.
3.  North Dakota, which, with 2 liberal Senators and the lone Representative being liberal, is the only state (I think) so far in the blue to do so.  Have I ever mentioned how much I love Byron Dorgan?
4.  Alaska, because they have so many 3rd parties
5.  Indiana, with the help of Bayh and the neighboring Illinois
6.  Wyoming, WE GOT A RED COUNTY THIS ELECTION!!!!
7.  Idaho
8.  Oklahoma, the future Idaho of the Republican party
9.  Utah
10.  Kansas, the future Wyoming of the Republican party
11.  Nebraska, the future Utah of the Republican party