Who is the Republican frontrunner?

[Eraserhead]

It isn't Thompson or McCain despite decent poll numbers in some states. It isn't Ron Paul despite staggering fundraising numbers. Tancredo and Hunter are joke candidates of course... but try picking one of the other three as the frontrunner. I'm having trouble picking one (if there even is one).

[Aizen]

A difficult question indeed. I voted Giuliani even though he's really in no position to win considering his NH/Iowa/SC numbers

[Eraserhead]

I actually voted for Huckabee. He seems to be right up there with Giuliani in the national polls now and he seems to be pulling away in the southern states (like SC & NC) as well as Iowa. I'm really not sure if he can sustain it though because he lacks capital.

[Mr. Morden]

If the MI Supreme Court hadn't reinstated the state's Jan. 15th primary, I'd probably say Huckabee.  However, with the NH primary on Jan. 8th and the MI primary on Jan. 15th, Huck-mentum might hit some roadblocks.  Diehard social conservatives make up a much smaller slice of the GOP electorate in NH than in, say, IA or SC, and MI is a big northern state that's expensive to run in.  Huckabee would have some problems winning there with limited $ and organization.  So even if Huckabee wins IA and SC, Giuliani and/or Romney will likely still be major players by the time of the FL primary on Jan. 29th, where again, $ will probably be a big factor.

So while both Giuliani and Huckabee are serious contenders, I say Romney is (just barely) the most likely candidate to win the nomination.  He has two plausible victory scenarios:

Scenario 1:
Win IA, NH, and MI.  His mo' becomes unstoppable.  Game over.
(A lot of people here seem to think that Romney has already lost IA, when he's only in a near-tie with Huckabee.  There's no guarantee that Huckabee's momentum will continue in the state, and Romney still has superior resources, and will presumably hit Huckabee with negative ads soon.)

Scenario 2:
Huckabee wins IA & SC, but Romney wins NH & MI, and presumably NV.  Giuliani fades, and Huckabee and Romney are the main players in the race when Floridians go to the polls on Jan. 29th.  Huckabee's virtually out of $ at this point, so Romney overwhelms him with paid advertising and wins the state, giving him enough momentum to sweep the bulk of the Feb. 5th states (except in the South, where Huck would presumably still do well), and get the nomination.

[jacob_101]

There isn't one.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

A very difficult question indeed. I would say it would be either Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee. I say Romney because he's got the money, thanks to the Church and his momentum and Tike Hike Mike because of gaining momentum and he's right up there in the national polls with Rudy.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I say it is almost a tie between Giuliani and Huckabee, while Romney is falling fast.

[© tweed]

Giuliani.  'frontrunner' is a media designation.  it says little about his actual chances to be nominated.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Huckabee is or at least will be soon.

[Gustaf]

It's a very close call. I still say Guliani, but it depends on so many variables now that it's really impossible to tell how things will pan out.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Crazy scenario, but I think it could happen (1% chance):

Iowa:
Huckabee wins, Thompson 2nd, Romney 3rd, Paul 4th
Huckabee wins and gets a lot of momentum, but Thompson finishing 2nd hurts Romney incredibly and kills his momentum heading to NH.  Paul supporters are thrilled by his 4th place finish.  Ron Paul then takes the NH primary over Romney with Huck finishing 4th to Giuliani.  Huck wins SC w/Thompson 2nd, and Paul 3rd.  Paul uses this momentum and money to win NV and pull 2nd in FL.  He does well in the big states on Super Tuesday and gets the nod

[Mr. Morden]

Crazy scenario, but I think it could happen (1% chance):

At least you're smarter than Intrade. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Crazy scenario, but I think it could happen (1% chance):

Iowa:
Huckabee wins, Thompson 2nd, Romney 3rd, Paul 4th
Huckabee wins and gets a lot of momentum, but Thompson finishing 2nd hurts Romney incredibly and kills his momentum heading to NH.  Paul supporters are thrilled by his 4th place finish.  Ron Paul then takes the NH primary over Romney with Huck finishing 4th to Giuliani.  Huck wins SC w/Thompson 2nd, and Paul 3rd.  Paul uses this momentum and money to win NV and pull 2nd in FL.  He does well in the big states on Super Tuesday and gets the nod

haha! the only people that support paul are stoners and college kids.

[© tweed]

Crazy scenario, but I think it could happen (1% chance):

Iowa:
Huckabee wins, Thompson 2nd, Romney 3rd, Paul 4th
Huckabee wins and gets a lot of momentum, but Thompson finishing 2nd hurts Romney incredibly and kills his momentum heading to NH.  Paul supporters are thrilled by his 4th place finish.  Ron Paul then takes the NH primary over Romney with Huck finishing 4th to Giuliani.  Huck wins SC w/Thompson 2nd, and Paul 3rd.  Paul uses this momentum and money to win NV and pull 2nd in FL.  He does well in the big states on Super Tuesday and gets the nod

haha! the only people that support paul are stoners and college kids.

don't forget the neo-Nazis and white nationalists.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Crazy scenario, but I think it could happen (1% chance):

Iowa:
Huckabee wins, Thompson 2nd, Romney 3rd, Paul 4th
Huckabee wins and gets a lot of momentum, but Thompson finishing 2nd hurts Romney incredibly and kills his momentum heading to NH.  Paul supporters are thrilled by his 4th place finish.  Ron Paul then takes the NH primary over Romney with Huck finishing 4th to Giuliani.  Huck wins SC w/Thompson 2nd, and Paul 3rd.  Paul uses this momentum and money to win NV and pull 2nd in FL.  He does well in the big states on Super Tuesday and gets the nod

haha! the only people that support paul are stoners and college kids.

don't forget the neo-Nazis and white nationalists.

and those who favor real change and small government, the biggest reason I support him is because he actually believes what he is saying

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Crazy scenario, but I think it could happen (1% chance):

Iowa:
Huckabee wins, Thompson 2nd, Romney 3rd, Paul 4th
Huckabee wins and gets a lot of momentum, but Thompson finishing 2nd hurts Romney incredibly and kills his momentum heading to NH.  Paul supporters are thrilled by his 4th place finish.  Ron Paul then takes the NH primary over Romney with Huck finishing 4th to Giuliani.  Huck wins SC w/Thompson 2nd, and Paul 3rd.  Paul uses this momentum and money to win NV and pull 2nd in FL.  He does well in the big states on Super Tuesday and gets the nod

haha! the only people that support paul are stoners and college kids.

don't forget the neo-Nazis and white nationalists.

and the conspiracy theorists.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Crazy scenario, but I think it could happen (1% chance):

Iowa:
Huckabee wins, Thompson 2nd, Romney 3rd, Paul 4th
Huckabee wins and gets a lot of momentum, but Thompson finishing 2nd hurts Romney incredibly and kills his momentum heading to NH.  Paul supporters are thrilled by his 4th place finish.  Ron Paul then takes the NH primary over Romney with Huck finishing 4th to Giuliani.  Huck wins SC w/Thompson 2nd, and Paul 3rd.  Paul uses this momentum and money to win NV and pull 2nd in FL.  He does well in the big states on Super Tuesday and gets the nod

haha! the only people that support paul are stoners and college kids.

don't forget the neo-Nazis and white nationalists.

and those who favor real change and small government, the biggest reason I support him is because he actually believes what he is saying

what he is saying is unrealistic. he looks at the world through rose colored glasses. no CIA? no FBI? Protectionism? No income tax and he may consider a flat tax? That may have worked back in the 1800s, but not today.

[Lief 🗽]

Crazy scenario, but I think it could happen (1% chance):

Iowa:
Huckabee wins, Thompson 2nd, Romney 3rd, Paul 4th
Huckabee wins and gets a lot of momentum, but Thompson finishing 2nd hurts Romney incredibly and kills his momentum heading to NH.  Paul supporters are thrilled by his 4th place finish.  Ron Paul then takes the NH primary over Romney with Huck finishing 4th to Giuliani.  Huck wins SC w/Thompson 2nd, and Paul 3rd.  Paul uses this momentum and money to win NV and pull 2nd in FL.  He does well in the big states on Super Tuesday and gets the nod

haha! the only people that support paul are stoners and college kids.

don't forget the neo-Nazis and white nationalists.

and those who favor real change and small government, the biggest reason I support him is because he actually believes what he is saying

So does the crazy hobo on the street corner, but that doesn't mean I want him to be president.

Short of Azeroth holding a caucus, Ron Paul isn't winning anything.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm one of the rare ones that still voted for Romney.

My disqualification of the other two:

Giuliani - His numbers look fairly impressive until you take into account he's probably at his ceiling of support. And they're only going to go down once he loses the early states. His strategy appears to be to ignore early states and focus on nationwide, and hoping he can weather the blows from the early states to win overall. Might've been valid back when it was a 4/5-way race, but not really at this point.

Huckabee - I'm not buying one poll that shows him with a nationwide lead in the MoE. There's still no guarantee he wins Iowa, and even if he does, he has nowhere to go from there. He ain't getting NH. He might be competitive in some of the new Super Tuesday states, but does he have the money or organization to compete with Romney? Not really. Plus I think this Dumond thing is going to hurt, and take a look at Free Republic's postings on it for proof (one guy has even flat out said he would vote for Hillary over Huckabee!)

However what Tweed said is largely true as well.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm one of the rare ones that still voted for Romney.

My disqualification of the other two:

Giuliani - His numbers look fairly impressive until you take into account he's probably at his ceiling of support. And they're only going to go down once he loses the early states. His strategy appears to be to ignore early states and focus on nationwide, and hoping he can weather the blows from the early states to win overall. Might've been valid back when it was a 4/5-way race, but not really at this point.

Huckabee - I'm not buying one poll that shows him with a nationwide lead in the MoE. There's still no guarantee he wins Iowa, and even if he does, he has nowhere to go from there. He ain't getting NH. He might be competitive in some of the new Super Tuesday states, but does he have the money or organization to compete with Romney? Not really. Plus I think this Dumond thing is going to hurt, and take a look at Free Republic's postings on it for proof (one guy has even flat out said he would vote for Hillary over Huckabee!)

However what Tweed said is largely true as well.

Romney has the most money and organization, but I still cant see him winning the nomination. He does too poorly in southern states and I think that will be exposed before he can win enough to secure the nomination.

[StateBoiler]

Click on the December 4th video. http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/webcast_archives.aspx

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Paul, Fred Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee are the ones supporting a flat tax. (Not to mention that the current Republican darling Huckabee said in a nationally-televised debate just last week he was going to dissolve the IRS.)

Giuliani and Romney are strongly against it.

Paul is very VERY anti-protectionism. And a quick google search shows me that Paul has never said "no CIA" or "no FBI".

So...get some facts first?

[Erc]

Paul is anti-NAFTA, for reasons that I don't entirely agree with, but I do understand.  His position is that such bilateral/trilateral agreements may liberalize trade with those countries, but tend to put up more barriers with other countries.  He thinks of them as regional trading blocs--that could become more than just trading blocs (compare the progress towards the EU from the free trade agreements of the early post-war period, says he).  He also doesn't like the WTO, as he doesn't like the reduction in US sovereignty that comes as a result.

But Paul is by no means 'protectionist' in spirit--he supports free trade, and his ideal world would have free trade between all countries.  However, I don't quite know how he proposes to get from here to there without institutions like NAFTA or the WTO.

[Mr. Morden]

But Paul is by no means 'protectionist' in spirit--he supports free trade, and his ideal world would have free trade between all countries.  However, I don't quite know how he proposes to get from here to there without institutions like NAFTA or the WTO.

Well, you can either make bilateral agreements with other countries to have free trade with them, but with no conditions of the type that NAFTA has....or you can just unilaterally eliminate American tarrifs on other countries, and diplomatically pressure them to lower their own barriers.  Does Paul support either of those things?

[Tender Branson]

Huckabee - After winning Iowa, he´ll come in as a strong second in NH (where polls will show him within 10% of Romney shortly before IA) - Romney may win WY and MI. Don´t know about NV, but a Huckabee victory in SC will overshadow NV anyway. Huckabee goes on to win FL and wins most Supertuesday states, except Tri-state, Utah and Tennessee. He could also win CA ...

[Mr. Morden]

Romney has the most money and organization, but I still cant see him winning the nomination. He does too poorly in southern states and I think that will be exposed before he can win enough to secure the nomination.

Honestly, given the calendar, he doesn't really need to win Southern primaries except Florida (which is of course quite a bit different from the rest of the South).  Huckabee could win the Southern primaries on Feb. 5th, and if Romney sweeps most of the rest, he wins.