Northern Ireland General Discussion

[Frodo]

Given that Northern Ireland is now plurality Catholic (and in fact outnumber Protestants in Belfast), does anyone see it becoming majority Catholic within the next few decades?  

[Frodo]

Given that Northern Ireland is now plurality Catholic (and in fact outnumber Protestants in Belfast), does anyone see it becoming majority Catholic within the next few decades?  

The article says 48% Protestant or brought up Protestant vs. 45% Catholic or brought up Catholic. How is that a plurality?

Apologies.

When I saw this graph, I immediately jumped to the conclusion that Catholics had gained a plurality. 

Should have looked more closely... 

[Frodo]

Catholic birth rates spurred unionists into making 1998 deal, Clinton suggested

Saturday 09 January 2016

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Read more:

[Frodo]

Interesting -Arlene Foster is gone:

Northern Ireland leader quits after party revolt over Brexit impact

[Frodo]

Northern Ireland's DUP Elects Hardliner Poots as New Leader

[Frodo]

Next May (or earlier, as the case may be), there will be elections held to the unicameral Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.

I know it is a year out, but how is it looking?  

[Frodo]

Midnight breakthrough saves Northern Ireland power-sharing
Sinn Féin outmaneuvers unionists to cut Irish language rights deal directly with Britain.

[Frodo]

That was fast:

Leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP resigns after 3 weeks
Edwin Poots faced an overwhelming no-confidence vote among the party’s lawmakers.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1431508490791657473?s=19
The figures are not the important thing - but the broader trend of the unionists splintering or the divides within unionism widening might be worth noting. The other argument and perhaps the greater cause of these figures is that it's just the ramifications of the DUP's internal woes. Of course the figures are actually not bad for unionists.

So Sinn Fein and the SDLP are the only nationalist parties in this poll, with everyone else being unionists?  

[Frodo]

Where do the TUV and ALL parties fall on the unionist-nationalist spectrum?

[Frodo]

In case anyone is wondering, results from the 2021 census are coming out in stages, with the first coming in June:

Release plans for Census 2021 statistics

[Frodo]

I am happy for Sinn Fein, though the Democratic Unionist Party will ensure their victory is bitter-sweet as they choose to become the Northern Irish equivalent of the U.S. Republican Party by picking the path of sour grapes and obstructionism rather than allow Sinn Fein to pick the First Minister for the first time ever:

Sinn Fein hails 'new era' as it wins Northern Ireland vote

[Frodo]

With Prime Minister Boris Johnson gone, what does this mean for Northern Ireland?  I know that he intended to rip up the Northern Ireland Protocol so the DUP will finally agree to serve under a Sinn Fein-led government.   

[Frodo]

King Charles III (assuming he has a similar lifespan as his late mother) could be the last British monarch to visit Northern Ireland while it is still part of the United Kingdom:

Charles lll makes maiden visit to Northern Ireland as English king

[Frodo]

The main, original justification for the partition of the island and the establishment of Northern Ireland as a member of the United Kingdom is now gone:

Northern Ireland census shows more Catholics than Protestants for the first time ever

The proportion of the resident population that is either Catholic or brought up Catholic is 45.7%, compared to 43.5% Protestant.

The previous census, in 2011, found that 45.1% of the population were Catholic or brought up Catholic. It found 48.4% were from a Protestant or other Christian background.

Census figures detailing the religious makeup of Northern Ireland were published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency Sept. 22.

Deirdre Heenan, professor of social policy at the University of Ulster, described the first census showing a Catholic majority as “monumental.”

[Frodo]

The new Prime Minister Liz Truss is trying to undo the damage her predecessor, Boris Johnson, left behind with regard to Northern Ireland:

Britain still seeking negotiated solution with EU on Northern Ireland - PM Truss

[Frodo]

Northern Ireland is starting to resemble Israel in its dysfunctional politics:

Northern Ireland likely headed for election

Northern Ireland appears headed for a snap election as soon as mid-December after the Northern Ireland Assembly failed to elect a new speaker on Friday.

Failure to elect a new speaker by the end of Thursday, means the assembly, commonly referred to as the Stormont, will now be mothballed, leaving Northern Ireland without a devolved government.

Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party refused Thursday to appoint a neutral speaker, the fourth straight time it has done so. That ended a 24-week period to form a new unity government.

That news meant all 10 remaining caretaker ministers in the Northern Ireland Executive lost their jobs at midnight. Several issued last-minute decrees before their time in office abruptly ended.

Without an executive, day-to-day governance falls to the senior civil servants in the various ministries and departments.

Britain's new Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has said publicly that he would call a snap Stormont election if the DUP continued its stalling tactics. Heaton-Harris is expected to call that election Dec. 15. That would come only seven months after the previous election and pundits have speculated there is little public appetite for it.

[Frodo]

From a few weeks ago, but I haven't seen this story posted yet:

https://twitter.com/Kilsally/status/1600551628301647907

The DUP acting like sore losers after coming in second place in the last election can't be helping them, let alone Northern Ireland as a whole.

[Frodo]

I don't know if this was covered elsewhere, but Sinn Feinn is continuing to make gains at the local level:

Sinn Fein wins in Northern Ireland local elections, urges return of government

[Frodo]

These are mainly ceremonial prizes with no real power, but they are highly visible reminders of the strides Sinn Fein has made in recent years in Northern Ireland:

Sinn Fein take most top positions on Northern Ireland councils after historic election

[Frodo]

Momentum on restoring powersharing in Northern Ireland ‘seems to have ebbed’

[Frodo]

By this point, I view the Democratic Unionist Party (and other unionist hardliners) with the same scorn and contempt I have for the Republican Party here at home.  Sore losers the lot of them:

N.Ireland to miss deadline to break political impasse

Now that they are losing their grip on power, is the DUP deliberately trying to shred the Good Friday Agreement? 

[Frodo]

By this point, I view the Democratic Unionist Party (and other unionist hardliners) with the same scorn and contempt I have for the Republican Party here at home.  Sore losers the lot of them:

N.Ireland to miss deadline to break political impasse

Now that they are losing their grip on power, is the DUP deliberately trying to shred the Good Friday Agreement?  

The DUP never liked the GFA in the first place - that's the problem. And their mentality has only hardened as Brexit created the Irish Sea Border (or whatever name Sunak is calling it now) and as SF became the largest party in the last Assembly election.

Which is ironic, since the DUP supported Brexit in the first place, fueling the rise of Sinn Fein in the process.  

They represent a bloc of voters who aren't happy with the GFA and are scared about their future and their communities.

It is a good thing then that most of those voters are aging hardline Protestants.  Time is their enemy, and once they pass on, it is only a matter of time before reunification with Ireland becomes feasible.  

If they are hoping that by creating chaos and making Northern Ireland ungovernable they bring in the direct intervention of the UK government to rule over them (like it has in the past, to be fair), it will be an unpleasant surprise to them if they find out that Westminster no longer has the desire to do so.    

[Frodo]

Now they have a new deadline -February 8:

UK gives Northern Ireland a new deadline to revive its collapsed government as cost of living soars

[Frodo]

Northern Ireland's DUP strikes deal to return to power-sharing government