are the following stocks under- or over-valued on Intrade?
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Author Topic: are the following stocks under- or over-valued on Intrade?  (Read 1991 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: December 09, 2007, 05:02:30 PM »

2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 62.0
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 30.0
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 4.9
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 2.3

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3

2008.DEM.VP.GORE 15.9
2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7

2008.REP.VP.HUCKABEE 28.0

GORE.RUNNING.2008 2.6
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2007, 05:16:59 PM »

2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 62.0: Slightly overvalued, should be maybe 55
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 30.0: Slight undervalued, should be maybe 35
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 4.9: About right
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 2.3: Way overvalued (With how close this number is to the Gore running number, people think that if Gore jumps in he automatically wins the nomination)

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5: Overvalued, should be 30-35
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9: Very slight undervalued, should be 20-22
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3: About right, should be 19-21
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2: Overvalued, 5-6
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4: About right
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9: Way, way, way overvalued, 0.5-1
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4 Way, way, way, way, way overvalued, 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3: He's not running, should be 0.1

2008.DEM.VP.GORE 15.9: Are you kidding me?, 1-2
2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7: Once again, are you kidding me? 20-25, at least, although a couple of months ago before the Hillary-Obama spat began, this would be a lot higher

2008.REP.VP.HUCKABEE 28.0: About right, I hope he's the top contender for VP

GORE.RUNNING.2008 2.6: Hmm, this actually isn't too bad.  Maybe should be around 1.5, but if there's a split convention, or Hillary has to drop out, or a crisis, Gore could step in.
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2007, 05:29:36 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2007, 05:56:32 PM by We Live Like Lost Children »

Massively Overvalued
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 2.3
2008.DEM.VP.GORE 15.9
GORE.RUNNING.2008 2.6

Somewhat Overvalued
2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 62.0
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4
2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7

Under
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 30.0

About Right
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9
2008.REP.VP.HUCKABEE 28.0
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 4.9

Wow, I guess I don't have much faith in InTraders.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2007, 09:45:20 PM »

2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7: Once again, are you kidding me? 20-25, at least, although a couple of months ago before the Hillary-Obama spat began, this would be a lot higher

You really think that if Obama doesn't get the nomination himself that there's then about a 1 in 3 chance of him being selected for VP (20 to 25% / 65% chance he's not nominated for prez himself = ~1/3)?  I really don't think it's that likely that HRC would pick him.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2007, 10:11:10 PM »

2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7: Once again, are you kidding me? 20-25, at least, although a couple of months ago before the Hillary-Obama spat began, this would be a lot higher

You really think that if Obama doesn't get the nomination himself that there's then about a 1 in 3 chance of him being selected for VP (20 to 25% / 65% chance he's not nominated for prez himself = ~1/3)?  I really don't think it's that likely that HRC would pick him.


But in comparison to the other candidates offered for the VP nomination, he is certainly the most likely.  Compared to his numbers for Gore at this point, he is way undervalued.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2007, 10:15:58 PM »

Well, he's certainly a lot more likely than Gore, but that's not saying much.  I think it's more likely that Clinton would choose, say, Bayh, Strickland, or Webb than Obama.  I definitely don't think there's a ~1 in 3 chance of Obama being the VP nominee if he doesn't get the presidential nomination.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2007, 10:21:44 PM »

2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 62.0 - WAY over
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 30.0 - About right
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 4.9 - WAY under
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 2.3 - Over

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9 - About Right
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3 - A little under
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3 - Over

2008.DEM.VP.GORE 15.9 - Over
2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7 - About right

2008.REP.VP.HUCKABEE 28.0 - About right

GORE.RUNNING.2008 2.6 - Over
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2007, 11:04:03 PM »

2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 62.0  [over, but only slightly]
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 30.0  [under, but only slightly]
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 4.9 [under by at least 50%]
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 2.3 [way over]
 
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5 [pretty close to being right]
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9 [under]
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3 [over]
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2 [under]
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4 [about right]
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9 [over]
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4 [over]
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3 [over]

2008.DEM.VP.GORE 15.9 [way over]
2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7 [over]

2008.REP.VP.HUCKABEE 28.0 [over]

GORE.RUNNING.2008 2.6 [way over]
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BRTD
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« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2007, 12:28:22 AM »

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5 [pretty close to being right]

You think Giuliani has that much of a chance after getting slaughtered in the early states?
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Gabu
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« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2007, 12:43:14 AM »

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9 - About Right
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3 - A little under
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3 - Over

Um, if they're all overrated (except Romney, who you said to be only a "little" underrated), that means that you think there is less than a 100% chance that there will be a Republican nominee. Tongue
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2007, 12:45:56 AM »

No, I think it just means that Inks is on the Alan Keyes bandwagon.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2007, 01:45:44 AM »

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5 [pretty close to being right]

You think Giuliani has that much of a chance after getting slaughtered in the early states?

Yes, I do, though I don't necessarily think he'll get slaughtered in New Hampshire.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2007, 03:00:32 AM »

No, I think it just means that Inks is on the Alan Keyes bandwagon.


Heck no - I just didn't make sure it all added up to exactly 100% - but no, I would vote for Ron Paul before Alan Keyes.
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Gabu
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« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2007, 03:26:39 AM »

Heck no - I just didn't make sure it all added up to exactly 100% - but no, I would vote for Ron Paul before Alan Keyes.

Well I'm just sayin', you can't very well say that every candidate is overrated.  One of them has to rise to the top and win.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2007, 03:48:13 AM »

Heck no - I just didn't make sure it all added up to exactly 100% - but no, I would vote for Ron Paul before Alan Keyes.

Well I'm just sayin', you can't very well say that every candidate is overrated.  One of them has to rise to the top and win.

OK, so maybe add a little more  to Romney and Huck
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #15 on: December 10, 2007, 03:37:44 PM »

2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 62.0 - about right, perhaps a tick low
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 30.0 - about right
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 4.9 - far too high (1-2%)
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 2.3 - about right, perhaps a tick high

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5 - far, far too high
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9 - too low
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3 - too low
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2 - too high
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4 - too high
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9 - too high
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4 - lol.  one of the true enigmas of the market.  perhaps they think she'd be the most likely to be drafed at a split convention?
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3 - about right, maybe a tick high

2008.DEM.VP.GORE 15.9 - another wtf
2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7 - too high

2008.REP.VP.HUCKABEE 28.0 - too high, mainly because I think the market undervalues him to with the RepNom.  but if extrapolated a bit (28.0/(100-19.9)) it makes sense

GORE.RUNNING.2008 2.6 - about right
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2007, 04:38:36 PM »

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9 - About Right
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3 - A little under
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3 - Over

Um, if they're all overrated (except Romney, who you said to be only a "little" underrated), that means that you think there is less than a 100% chance that there will be a Republican nominee. Tongue
Convention delegates will be counting the 1079th ballot by the filing deadline. As a result, there is no Republican nominee.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2007, 04:48:01 PM »

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9 - About Right
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3 - A little under
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4 - Over
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3 - Over

Um, if they're all overrated (except Romney, who you said to be only a "little" underrated), that means that you think there is less than a 100% chance that there will be a Republican nominee. Tongue

Actually, Ron Paul is underrated.
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