ABC/WP National Poll: Giuliani leads Huckabee by 7%; Clinton leads Obama by 30%

[Eraserhead]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/11/AR2007121101621.html?hpid=topnews             



GOP:

Rudy Giuliani       25     
Mike Huckabee    19       
Mitt Romney         17       
Fred Thompson    14     
John McCain         12       
Ron Paul                3       
Duncan Hunter       2       
Tom Tancredo         0       
Other (vol.)             *       
None (vol.)              3       
No opinion               4       


Dems:

Hillary Clinton     53     
Barack Obama    23       
John Edwards     10       
Bill Richardson      3       
Joe Biden              3       
Dennis Kucinich     2       
Chris Dodd            *       
Other (vol.)           0     
None (vol.)            1       
No opinion             3   


WTF?  This poll actually shows Clinton getting a bounce. Hopefully this is an outlier.

[Aizen]

Trash it

[Mr. Morden]

I highly doubt Clinton's lead is anything like 30 points.  However, I think some of the Obama supporters here may have been getting too optimistic about a few pollsters like CNN and Rasmussen showing recent national gains by Obama.  In aggregate, it does look like the race is tightening a bit nationally, but Clinton still has a pretty healthy lead:



Really, it's Obama's gains in the early primary states that are the reason his supporters should be optimistic.  I highly doubt he'll pass Clinton in national polls until after the Iowa caucus (except maybe in one or two outliers).  Though who knows, these things aren't easy to predict.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah the race will probably come down to the early states anyway but to see a national poll like this all of a sudden is still a little depressing.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

National polls really don't matter in my mind.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I (shudder) agree with Inks. At this point in the race a national poll really means nothing.

However, what it does show is that Obama's surge seems to be very localised, which is good for primaries, but Clinton is more than likely well ahead of him everywhere else. Which is why a BIG win is so important for him. The thing I think it shows about Obama is that most people don't really consider him until they are inundated with information. Where has the machine been it strongest? IA, NH and SC. So where has Obama bounced IA, NH and SC. The issue that remains is whether this is a REAL surge that can sustain into Jan 3.

The Huckabee number is frankly more concerning for me. His numbers seem to be on the upswing nationally. With almost no money, and free media from his IA and SC poll numbers he's given the base what they've been craving for - and dyed in the wool evangelical conservative... and even better, a PREACHER!. I think two things will happen here, either Huck goes off like a firecracker in IA, but loses momentum from a big win for someone else in NH - or he rides the momentum into Feb 5 and sucks up all remaining Thompson support and a good chunk of the wary conservatives who were backing Romney.

Now, I don't discount Huckabee as a very dangerous GE candidate... way too many dismissed him from the beginning.