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Question: Only Romney and Huckabee stand a chance at the nomination at this point
Agree   -14 (21.2%)
Disgree   -52 (78.8%)
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Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: Only Romney and Huckabee stand a chance at the nomination at this point  (Read 16823 times)
The Conflict
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« on: December 20, 2007, 12:32:56 pm »

I agree obviously.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2007, 01:16:24 pm »

I disagree.

If John McCain places an unexpected 3rd in Iowa and Mike Huckabee wins 1st place there, the media will be trumpeting Romney's fall, McCain's surge, and Huck's win, in that order. McCain will then close the small gap in NH and win his home away from home. The next primary state is Michigan, which voted for McCain in 2000. If the Arizona Senator can win there too, he'll have two wins in the first three states and all the momentum going into South Carolina and Super Tuesday.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2007, 02:14:39 pm »

any chance? no

Rudy still has a good chance, but he isnt the front runner (I wonder when the media will stop calling him that). McCain has a tiny chance too
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2007, 02:16:40 pm »


No.  Overall, Rudy still has the best shot on the national level, as polls from the non-early primary states show.  However, I do see Romney dropping to third, with Huckabee being the champion of the South/Mid-west republicans and Rudy carrying the flag for the the East and West coasts.
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2007, 02:59:27 pm »

Not entirely, but for the most part. I'd say that there is something like an 85% percent chance that the nominee will be either Romney or Huckabee.
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2007, 04:02:52 pm »

McCain
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« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2007, 04:04:05 pm »

It's unlikely that it'll be anyone else...but I wouldn't completely rule out McCain.  And Giuliani still has some time to recover, if he doesn't absolutely bomb in IA/NH & starts working on MI.  Thompson is now TN's favorite son candidate, nothing more.

But remember how much this race has changed over the last week, let alone the last month.  I know it's Christmas week now, so things might get a bit static...but don't count out IA or NH giving us a couple of surprises.
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« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2007, 04:10:28 pm »

But remember how much this race has changed over the last week, let alone the last month.

Yes, exactly.  It might take crazy and unpredictable things to happen for neither Huckabee nor Romney to get the nomination at this point, but crazy and unpredictable things happened in the final weeks before Iowa in 2004.  Crazy and unpredictable things have been happening in the last few weeks.  So given that, how can any of us say with certainty that we know how things are going to play out in the next few weeks?

Having said that, I'd like to know what MODU is smoking when he says that Giuliani still has the best shot.
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« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2007, 05:33:40 pm »

Mostly agree but I'm keeping an eye on this possible McCain comeback.
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« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2007, 05:45:05 pm »

Disagree--I'm worried about a McCain comeback. Giuliani could still possibly win.
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« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2007, 05:46:14 pm »


Having said that, I'd like to know what MODU is smoking when he says that Giuliani still has the best shot.


Only the same thing that the people saying McCain and Paul are still in it.  Tongue 
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2007, 05:58:28 pm »


Having said that, I'd like to know what MODU is smoking when he says that Giuliani still has the best shot.


Only the same thing that the people saying McCain and Paul are still in it.  Tongue 

McCain is now tied in NH. In a deadlocked race with five candidates bunched together and a sixth with a huge campaign warchest, it's unwise to count out the one who actually has presidential campaign experience.  Washington insiders like Charlie Black and Henry Kissinger, who both back McCain, rarely endorse also-rans. Bold statement: If Huck wins the Hawkeye State, McCain will win NH. Period. If that happens, Romney's probably finished, Thompson's cooked, and Giuliani may gain a second wind going into Super Tuesday.

Despite the media hubbub over his falling poll numbers, I think now is the time to jump on Rudy Giuliani's bandwagon. The single greatest impediment to a Giuliani nomination win is the early success of Mitt "Moneybags" Romney. If Huck and McCain knock off the Mormon early on, Rudy will be the odds on favorite to win the most delegates on Feb. 5th.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2007, 06:16:35 pm »

I'd generally agree, although I think that there's a chance that McCain may make a Kerry-esq comeback.

Giuliani has too much baggage to overcome, even if he is still leading in national polls, and Thompson just doesn't have a message or energy.
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« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2007, 07:30:49 pm »

Not entirely, but for the most part. I'd say that there is something like an 85% percent chance that the nominee will be either Romney or Huckabee.

I can agree with that. I wouldn't betting on anyone else, certainly.
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« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2007, 07:46:01 pm »

Romney, McCain and Huckabee have the only shot.  The party will never endorse a dove on the war, like Paul.  Not ever. I don't care if he wins Iowa. Fuggedaboutit.  It is more likely to endorse a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-urban development, pro-gun control Republican like Rudy.  But that is also unlikely in the extreme. Plus, Giuliani's personal baggage and ethical scandals are bad news for hi

Romney and Huckabee are the most viable of the three.  But McCain could emerge at the end of the day as the guy most people trust.  His breadth of experience, years of service and steady, trusted wisdom on issues of national defense and foreign policy may force Republicans to revisit his candidacy.  Even those who, like me, hate McCain's position on Iraq, may feel that overall -- he's the best of the Republicans with an uncertain foreign policy future looming.

At the very start of all this, I picked Romney because of his deep pockets, good looks, lack of personal scandal and his ability to play both sides against the middle (conservative in the primary, moderate in the general).  I stand by that.  But I am not ruling out McCain or Huckabee.

Thompson and Hunter are done.  (And I readily confess, I picked Hunter as the surprise guy at the beginning -- not the guy who would win, but the guy who come close.)
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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2007, 07:55:31 pm »

At the very start of all this, I picked Romney because of his deep pockets, good looks, lack of personal scandal and his ability to play both sides against the middle (conservative in the primary, moderate in the general).  I stand by that.  But I am not ruling out McCain or Huckabee

My view exactly.
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« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2007, 04:07:11 pm »

Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani all have a chance, as do Clinton, Obama and Edwards. I don't think anyone else does.
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« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2007, 05:05:23 pm »

Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani all have a chance, as do Clinton, Obama and Edwards. I don't think anyone else does.

I'd agree to that list, with the addition of Bloomberg, maybe.
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« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2015, 12:59:54 am »

LOL
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2015, 09:56:54 am »

I disagree.

If John McCain places an unexpected 3rd in Iowa and Mike Huckabee wins 1st place there, the media will be trumpeting Romney's fall, McCain's surge, and Huck's win, in that order. McCain will then close the small gap in NH and win his home away from home. The next primary state is Michigan, which voted for McCain in 2000. If the Arizona Senator can win there too, he'll have two wins in the first three states and all the momentum going into South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

This post was the winner of this thread.
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« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2015, 03:08:14 pm »

What was the deal with Michigan being third in 2008?
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« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2015, 05:07:14 pm »

What was the deal with Michigan being third in 2008?

Every state wants to have a gigantic say. Florida wasn't supposed to be early either but with such tiny sanctions for big influence (with some sanctions removed by convention time), they felt it was fine to move up. RNC stripped half the delegates and DNC stripped all though Clinton continued to contest them despite providing no help to her. They didn't help her enough to surpass Obama though when delegates there were reinstated. (That's all from memory so if I switched up the punishments, I'm sorry. Throw a correction out there.)
Florida continued it's early status in 2012. Michigan did not. FL will step back to what it used to be in 2016.
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« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2015, 06:10:06 am »

What was the deal with Michigan being third in 2008?

What do you mean what was the deal with it?  Other states besides IA and NH have gone before SC before.  AZ, ND, and SD all held primaries before SC did in 1996, for example.  SC has generally just insisted on being "first in the South", but non-Southern states have gone earlier than it did plenty of times before.
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« Reply #23 on: June 10, 2015, 12:19:14 am »

Check out this thread.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59715.0

This is the image.
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