Can McCain Beat Clinton?

[bullmoose88]

McCain has the best shot, especially against Clinton, but right now Democrats should be favored to win, even in McCain v. Clinton.

Thats not to say the Democrats won't blow it...again.

[J. J.]

He could, although I think it is unlikely.  The only Kerry states I see possibly switching are New Hampshire and Wisconsin, and I don't think they will.  If McCain does win, it will be with no more than 275 EV.

First, if Clinton does as well Kerry, she loses.

Second, PA looks like a McCain state.  Clinton doesn't have to do that much worse than Kerry to loose it.

Third, a lot of the general has a chance of being impacted by the current racially charged campaign.  Unless that is ended, very quickly, Clinton will not be able to get the same African American vote that past Democratic nominees have.  I saw the same thing happen with Dukakis. (See #2.)

Now, to both Clinton's and Obama's credit, they are working on number three, and trying to defuse the situation.  That has the real potential of weakening any chance either nominee would have.  (I think it might have to be Clinton/Obama 2008, or vice versa, to solve that problem, but that would be a winning ticket.)

If Black turnout dips down, say... 10 points(?), The chances of the Dem nominee winning PA, MI, FL and OH take a big hit.

And that could be even more the case in a race between Clinton and a larlgy unobjectionable GOP nominee like McCain.     

Now, add Powell or Rice to the GOP ticket.

[Person Man]

McCain has the best shot, especially against Clinton, but right now Democrats should be favored to win, even in McCain v. Clinton.

Thats not to say the Democrats won't blow it...again.

My thoughts exactly.

[7,052,770]

He can, but I still see Clinton winning all of the Kerry states plus Ohio, Arkansas, and Iowa.

^^

possibly add New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, or West Virginia

[Person Man]

Maybe she will even do better in the west.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

He seems to have some sort of superhuman energy about him, he campaigns more each day than any of the other candidates and flies all over the place. Whatever, Clinton will be torn apart by her own party, the Republicans, and a largely watched Dick Morris to where McCain wins, perhaps handily.

[they don't love you like i love you]

If McCain runs against Hillary he will win Ohio easily and thus the election.

Even if we assume the first part is correct, the second doesn't have to be:

[Person Man]

If McCain runs against Hillary he will win Ohio easily and thus the election.

Even if we assume the first part is correct, the second doesn't have to be:

Imagine if we LOSE the popular vote and win this way....

[Lincoln Republican]

If McCain runs against Hillary he will win Ohio easily and thus the election.

Even if we assume the first part is correct, the second doesn't have to be:

I rather think that McCain would win his neighboring soutwest state of New Mexico.

Possibly Oregon with a fairly good shot at Wisconsin as well.

[Smid]

If McCain runs against Hillary he will win Ohio easily and thus the election.

Even if we assume the first part is correct, the second doesn't have to be:

I rather think that McCain would win his neighboring soutwest state of New Mexico.

Possibly Oregon with a fairly good shot at Wisconsin as well.

I think also a pretty good shot in New Hampshire - judging from media reports, he's like a rock star up there.

[RRB]

NO, he CANNOT beat Clinton.  By the time the campaign is over, every aspect of McCain being lockstep with Bush on many, many issues wil be driven home.  In 2006, Democrat governer Jennifer Granholm ran an ad that showed a picture challenger Dick DeVos morph into a picture of George Bush.  Long about next October expect to see John McCain (assuming that he is to be the nominee) attached to everything Bush, and everything republican. 

He is also the enemy of the republican estblishment, support from traditional bases will be limited

He is a terrible speaker who looks old and depressing.  Actually, I don't think so, but face it, he is not very exciting for the average American who would rather vote for American Idol than vote for president. 

Women and minorities will vote for Clinton in droves.  Most people have no idea what any policy of any kind is, but women will vote for the first women president by wide margins simply because of gender.

He will not lose in a landslide, but she will win by a decent margin, maybe adding at least FL, AR, MO, WV, OH, and NV if comparing a 2004 map.

I think we all underestimate how bad Hillary wants to be president and how tough she will get in order to do so.  By the time the election is over, John McCains backside will be bright red from several months of whoopins. 

[Smid]

Florida I can see going for Clinton. A lot of older retired women from New York down there... yeah, I can see Florida going for her.

[TomC]

Yes, but he's got to kick it up in the areas of economic empathy and seeming Presidential at times.

[Person Man]

Clinton could actually sweep the sun belt on top of her popularity with hispanics.

[John Dibble]

Among the viable Republicans he probably is the only one that could.

[Reaganfan]

NO, he CANNOT beat Clinton.  By the time the campaign is over, every aspect of McCain being lockstep with Bush on many, many issues wil be driven home.  In 2006, Democrat governer Jennifer Granholm ran an ad that showed a picture challenger Dick DeVos morph into a picture of George Bush.  Long about next October expect to see John McCain (assuming that he is to be the nominee) attached to everything Bush, and everything republican.

The reason President Bush's approval rating is at 37%...is because 15% of Republicans who supported him during the '04 election, when his approval was 45-50%, are not currently approving. Take 10-15% and add it onto 37%...and he'd be right back around 50% where he was in November 2004. I expect this to happen by the time the convention rolls around and Republicans see him speaking at the convention, ect.

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Not true. Republicans will unite, with the exception of an extremely small fraction of people. If Hillary is the nominee...she will also help unite the party.

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Watch his speech at the 2004 convention, watch his victory speech in South Carolina...and you can see he isn't a terrible speaker. People like McCain becomes he comes off strong, honest and heroic...three things the Democrats have problems getting with their recent candidates.

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Not true. I hear about more women who will vote against Hillary because they either don't like her...or don't think America is ready for a woman President *Something I disagree with, btw* than I have heard of women supporting her because she is a woman. Many of the women I've spoken to think a "President" is a "man's job"...and that's coming from women.

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Not Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, Ohio and Nevada....maybe not even Arkansas.

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Hillary is not unstoppable...hell...she is nearly losing the nomination to a guy who is an empty suit that nobody heard of 4 years ago....

[Jeff from NC]

Perhaps Hillary will unite the GOP.  But so did Bush, and he only barely won; most surveys show that the GOP has only lost voters to the Democrats.  I don't think that uniting the Republican party again will suffice.  I also remain in doubt that McCain can unite the Republican party.  He didn't do much better in SC than he did eight years ago (pulling around 30% both times) and he is loathed by Rush Limbaugh and his ilk.

To the poster above who said Ohio likes moderate or maverick Republicans - perhaps.  But Mike DeWine was pretty independent; a member of the Gang of 14, I think.  The GOP base didn't mind punishing him for that, and so he lost by a sizeable margin to a very liberal Democrat.

Finally, I think a lot of McCain's support is based on the impression that he isn't your typical Republican and thus whatever is wrong with the GOP, he surely must be different.  Unfortunately he remains a staunch supporter of the war, which turns off many independents; and he favors a moderate solution for immigration, which is enough to make many Republicans stay home.  I think a few well-constructed ads that inform voters of his specific positions will do a great deal of harm to his image.

[Person Man]

Perhaps Hillary will unite the GOP.  But so did Bush, and he only barely won; most surveys show that the GOP has only lost voters to the Democrats.  I don't think that uniting the Republican party again will suffice.  I also remain in doubt that McCain can unite the Republican party.  He didn't do much better in SC than he did eight years ago (pulling around 30% both times) and he is loathed by Rush Limbaugh and his ilk.

To the poster above who said Ohio likes moderate or maverick Republicans - perhaps.  But Mike DeWine was pretty independent; a member of the Gang of 14, I think.  The GOP base didn't mind punishing him for that, and so he lost by a sizeable margin to a very liberal Democrat.

Finally, I think a lot of McCain's support is based on the impression that he isn't your typical Republican and thus whatever is wrong with the GOP, he surely must be different.  Unfortunately he remains a staunch supporter of the war, which turns off many independents; and he favors a moderate solution for immigration, which is enough to make many Republicans stay home.  I think a few well-constructed ads that inform voters of his specific positions will do a great deal of harm to his image.

That's a very eloquent way of putting it, yes. Also the fact that we don't know what his positions really are is something everyone should know.

[MasterJedi]

He can beat her, doesn't mean he will though but I think he can and hopefully will. Looking at the maps though.

The absolute best McCain can hope for:

Around the best Clinton can do:

[Person Man]

15 swing states. Wow.

[Reaganfan]

The title of this thread really should be reversed to "Can Clinton beat McCain".

[gmo]

The reason President Bush's approval rating is at 37%...is because 15% of Republicans who supported him during the '04 election, when his approval was 45-50%, are not currently approving. Take 10-15% and add it onto 37%...and he'd be right back around 50% where he was in November 2004. I expect this to happen by the time the convention rolls around and Republicans see him speaking at the convention, ect.

If you mean Bush is -15% because of dwindling Republican support, that is close to right.  But taking 15% of self-identified Republicans (extremely generously) considered as a third of the voting populace only totals 5%, which added back maybe gives you 40% depending on the poll you use.  Bush's approval stands at about 25% among independents/moderates, and you probably do not need all your fingers to count it among Democrats/liberals.

This thread is about McCain and Clinton, but the election will be significantly about Bush.  RRB & Jeff from NC are right in highlighting that the year is an uphill climb for the GOP.  You cannot simply start with 2004 and add or subtract a points here and there.  The Republican ranks have thinned in recent years as was mentioned.  The gains in self-identified independents accounts for basically all of that, however those cannot be expected to just "come home" to beat Hillary.  Iraq may not be a huge negative but is not a winning issue for them, and the economy figures to me to be a tough sell too.  Just like the hatred of Bush was not enough to topple him in 2004, the hatred of Hillary will not be enough to knock her off in 2008.

Definitely the Dems can blow it, and obviously there is a lot of time for things to change.  McCain has a real chance.  But if we maintained the current environment through the nominating and the hypothetical matchups and turned it into the final one-on-one, I think you could clearly see an edge for the Democrats.

[Person Man]

The reason President Bush's approval rating is at 37%...is because 15% of Republicans who supported him during the '04 election, when his approval was 45-50%, are not currently approving. Take 10-15% and add it onto 37%...and he'd be right back around 50% where he was in November 2004. I expect this to happen by the time the convention rolls around and Republicans see him speaking at the convention, ect.

If you mean Bush is -15% because of dwindling Republican support, that is close to right.  But taking 15% of self-identified Republicans (extremely generously) considered as a third of the voting populace only totals 5%, which added back maybe gives you 40% depending on the poll you use.  Bush's approval stands at about 25% among independents/moderates, and you probably do not need all your fingers to count it among Democrats/liberals.

This thread is about McCain and Clinton, but the election will be significantly about Bush.  RRB & Jeff from NC are right in highlighting that the year is an uphill climb for the GOP.  You cannot simply start with 2004 and add or subtract a points here and there.  The Republican ranks have thinned in recent years as was mentioned.  The gains in self-identified independents accounts for basically all of that, however those cannot be expected to just "come home" to beat Hillary.  Iraq may not be a huge negative but is not a winning issue for them, and the economy figures to me to be a tough sell too.  Just like the hatred of Bush was not enough to topple him in 2004, the hatred of Hillary will not be enough to knock her off in 2008.

Definitely the Dems can blow it, and obviously there is a lot of time for things to change.  McCain has a real chance.  But if we maintained the current environment through the nominating and the hypothetical matchups and turned it into the final one-on-one, I think you could clearly see an edge for the Democrats.

I would give it 51-48. Things are worse for the Republicans in the news, but they are the incumbents and though there a more democrats, when you remove the DINOs and RINOs from the pack,  there could still be slightly more republicans. If that wasn't the case, I would give the dems a 52.5-46.5 advantage and if the GOP wasn't the incumbent, I would give the dems a similiar spread of what they had last time in 2006, about 54-45. The only way I can see the Republicans winning is if the economy recovers and that Hillary runs yet another horrible campaign for the dems. Then I see similiar margins as in 2004, otherwise it will be like 2000 all over again and we would have learned nothing. Iraq won't change anything, I don't think. People already know that it is unpredictable and that there is nothing they can do about it unless a president with reasonable expectations about Iraq wins.



This is just what I see.

If EVERYTHING goes according to plans for the DNC, I see this-

If things turn around for the GOP- I see this.